By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Hello again to the LineStar fam! It’s time to lock in for a Hump Day 10-game MLB main slate! What stands out today is just how deep this pitching player pool goes. It’s not too often where you could look at a slate with this many games on it and be able to make a reasonable case for damn near every starting pitcher taking the mound today. There are always going to be landmines and guys who appear to be in good spots will end up underperforming or getting shelled but, as the cliché goes, "that’s baseball." With no shortage of intriguing pitching prospects, that could also mean another thing -- offense may be at a bit of a premium today. There are still a handful of teams that will be in decent spots and carry some “safer” potential with higher implied run totals, but I see no sure bets on the board. Let’s see what we can cook up in the DFS kitchen today and let’s have some fun with this very GPP-friendly slate, shall we?

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

It’s not looking like an overly problematic slate but there will still be two or three games that we’ll need to keep an eye on leading up to lock.

CHC @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Scattered storms around with rain chances increasing in the later innings but possibly not arriving until after the game is over. Currently, the in-game delay risk will be much higher than the outright PPD risk.

TEX @ CLE (7:10 ET, 7 O/U): Looks like they’ll start this one dry but some heavier batches of rain threaten the mid/late innings. If a delay is needed at any point, it could be a pretty lengthy one while they wait on storms to pass through. A “chance for a lengthy delay” always means there is going to be at least a touch of PPD risk as well. Winds blowing IN from center at 10 mph.

OAK @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9.5 O/U): They should start dry here before in-game rain coverage in the ATL area picks up to about 15-20% for much of the evening. They may dodge trouble altogether but an in-game delay is definitely in play here.

LAD @ CWS (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light rain will be around Chicago close to first pitch. They’ll either play through it or perhaps start a little late. Once the rain clears, there doesn’t appear to be anything threatening upstream. Winds blowing OUT to center near 10 mph but cooler temps in the low-60s/upper-50s look to mitigate any helpful winds for hitters.

Note: The three-game locations to be most worried about are in BAL, CLE, and ATL. It’s more in-game risk than postponement risk so, for the most part, starting pitchers could be more of a potential liability than the hitters. Let’s make sure to check the radar on these games closer to first pitch!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sean Manaea (LHP), SD | DK: $9k, FD: $10k | vs. NYM

As noted in the intro, a case can be made for just about every pitcher on this slate. Manaea may not be one of the more obvious options but there is some real potential to be had. First off, the Mets are not a team I’m usually going to go out of my way to attack with pitching. But their offense takes a major blow if we’re working under the assumption that both Pete Alonso (hand) and Starling Marte (quadriceps) will be out of the lineup tonight. Marte has been very hot over the last couple of weeks and Polar Bear has been doing Polar Bear things. The Mets were already more of a league average offense against lefties and losing two big right-handed hitters like those guys would be an obvious blow. Manaea is rocking a strong 27.1% kRate with a 13.6% SwStr% this season alongside a solid 1.11 WHIP and 3.47 xFIP. He has had some lackluster outings but his upside still resides in the 30 DKFP/50 FDFP territory. His leash is about as long as any pitcher in baseball and he’s thrown at least 96 pitches while covering 6.0+ innings in each of his last six outings. A pitcher’s duel is expected in this game tonight with the talented Chris Bassitt also taking the mound for the Mets. But the Padres do check in as slight -130 home favorites but, more notably, the Mets are being pinned with a low 3.2 implied run total this evening.

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.2k | @ LAA

Everyone is likely well-read on the Los Angeles Angels struggles as they currently ride into tonight’s game on a 13-game losing streak that dates back to May 25th. In that time, they’re hitting just .216 with a .270 wOBA, .111 ISO, and 75 wRC+ while providing opposing pitchers with a high 24.9% kRate. They’re already without Taylor Ward and Anthony Rendon, who are both on the IL. Now they could be without Mike Trout since he got removed from last night’s game after coming up a bit hobbled while running out a double in the third inning. Currently, he’s listed as day-to-day. Eovaldi’s big red flag this season has been giving up the long ball with 16 HRs surrendered this season resulting in a 2.27 HR/9 Rate. Otherwise, he’s been excellent in all other aspects. The good news is he has given up only two HRs in his last three starts (21.2 IP) and he’s been pitching better on the road this season where he has a 2.48 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, .199 opp AVG, 28.4% kRate, and a not-atrocious 1.73 HR/9 Rate (compared to a 3.00 HR/9 Rate at home). In his recent three-game tear, he has racked up at least 30 DKFP/49 FDFP in each start. He provides as much upside as any pitcher on the slate and won’t necessarily break the bank either.

Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.7k | vs. OAK

Reminder: Check on the forecast closer to lock to see how likely a potential in-game delay could be.

Anderson gets the dream match-up on paper this Wednesday with the Oakland A’s still in town. Against RHPs, the A’s own the lowest batting average (.203) and wOBA (.258) in baseball and they offer up plenty of strikeouts with their 24.4% kRate. While it isn’t a resounding endorsement, Anderson has allowed four runs or fewer in eight of his ten starts this season. His 19.5% kRate is nothing to marvel at either, but he is forcing a 12.2% Swinging Strike Rate so he could be due for some positive strikeout regression. Many of his underlying stats are markedly better than his surface stats and he is a trusted pitcher who is often handed a 100+ pitch workload. Anyone even remotely decent that takes the mound against Oakland is worth a look and, in today’s case, Anderson checks in with some of the lowest DFS salaries among all SPs on the slate. The Braves are also the heaviest favorites on the slate with -240 odds and Anderson has pitched at least five innings in nine consecutive starts, so a win bonus could certainly be in the cards.

Also Consider:

*Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.7k | vs. TEX

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.2k | @ MIL

Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.4k | @ CWS

Chris Bassitt (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.5k | @ SD

*Weather concerns.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

San Francisco Giants vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Senzatela has had a pretty rough go in 2022 and he’ll have his hands full with a Giants offense that has been nails at home this season where they average 5.36 runs/gm and have posted a 119 wRC+ (ranks 5th). Senzatela owns a slate-worst 5.13 SIERA and 1.97 WHIP this season. His home ballpark of Coors Field doesn’t do him any favors but he also looked rough in his two road starts this season as well. It’s only an 8.2 IP sample size, but in those two road games, he came away with a 10.38 ERA, 2.19 WHIP, .415 opp AVG, and a minuscule 9.3% kRate. One of those two road starts was against this same Giants team back on May 10th. In just 3.2 innings, they were able to record seven hits, two walks, and five runs against Senzatela. And we know that, even outside of Coors, the Rockies bullpen is extremely suspect as well.

Favorite SF Bats: Joc Pederson, Wilmer Flores, Evan Longoria | Sneaky Bat: Thairo Estrada

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), CWS

The mighty Dodgers got shutout in their series opener in Chicago last night. The last time the Dodgers got blanked, they ran wild with 14 runs on 24 hits. It’d be a stretch to assume there is any kind of trend that will come into play just because such a random offensive explosion occurred the last time LAD posted a zero on the board, but it’s just a reminder (as if anyone needed one) that the Dodgers can explode at any time. Johnny Cueto has posted a sharp 2.92 ERA in his four starts this season but when his 3.91 xFIP and 4.11 SIERA are taken into consideration, there is reason to believe that some regression is coming. Many of these Dodger bats have seen Cueto quite a bit in recent years and over the last 123 PA against him, LAD is hitting .286 with a .358 wOBA and .188 ISO. Despite posting some recent lackluster offensive numbers even before yesterday’s game, the Dodgers DFS salaries are still on the high-end of the salary spectrum so most of these bats could have moderate to low ownership as well.

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman | Sneaky Bat: Eddy Alvarez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Packy Naughton (LHP) + STL Bullpen

With the Cardinals looking to roll out a bullpen kinda game today, the Rays may be worth a look as a lower-owned stack option. Naughton has been pretty solid in his short stints out of the bullpen this season but he’s not necessarily a lockdown opener. The current projected long reliever for the Cardinals is LHP Zack Thompson who has just four innings pitched at the MLB level and had a 4.67 ERA with a 60.1% LOB% across ten Triple-A starts this year. The Rays bats have not been great lately but they do tend to hit better at home where they have a 106 wRC+ on the season (ranks 15th). They’ve also hit left-handed pitching better as well while striking out less, which would be a plus considering Naughton and Thompson are both southpaws looking to handle the bulk of the innings in this game. Finally, the Rays will not be an expensive team to stack up so loading up on anywhere from two-to-five Rays bats will leave plenty of salary leftover for one (or two) of those stud pitchers that are on the slate. If they can string together around five-to-seven runs with a few big hits thrown into the mix, we could easily see a lower-owned Rays stack make some moves in GPPs today.

Favorite TB Bats: Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Manuel Margot | Sneaky Bat: Francisco Mejia

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), CWS

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jared Koenig (LHP), OAK

OF Joc Pederson | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

1B Anthony Rizzo | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Chris Archer (RHP), MIN

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

OF JD Martinez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Randy Arozarena | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Packy Naughton (LHP) + STL Bullpen

1B Trey Mancini | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

2B/OF Christopher Morel | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Jurickson Profar | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), NYM

1B Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

2B Nolan Gorman | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), TB

OF Rafael Ortega | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

2B/3B Eddy Alvarez | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), CWS

OF Odubel Herrera | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

OF Oscar Gonzalez | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jared Koenig (LHP), OAK

An inexperienced lefty is on the mound making his MLB debut for the A’s tonight. LHP Jared Koenig has put up some decent numbers across ten Triple-A starts this season (2.21 ERA, 4.22 xFIP, 0.68 HR/9) but it’s obviously a whole different ballgame when you take that huge step up to the big leagues, especially on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Austin Riley has demolished left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .323 AVG, .453 wOBA, .375 ISO, and .199 wRC+. Also against lefties, he has created a titanic 58.5% HardContact% and 33.3% HR/FB Rate. My guess is that at least two Braves take Koenig deep in this game and Riley is about the best bet in the lineup to account for one of those.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Ian Anderson OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded | +100 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

I’ll start this prop highlight by mentioning the weather. If we get closer to first pitch (7:20 ET) and it looks like Atlanta may get hit by an in-game delay due to weather, I may cool off on this prop. But if no mid-game stoppages appear likely, then I’m on board! Anderson has pitched six full innings in three of his last four starts while averaging 101 pitches thrown per game in that stretch. He was able to hit the over on this prop in his last start despite pitching in Coors Field against a pesky Rockies team that can be hard to get out efficiently, so getting the awful A’s at home should be a welcomed, and much softer, challenge.

Joc Pederson OVER 0.5 RBI | +135 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

The Giants lineup has not yet been released at the time of this writing but I’d fully expect Joc to be back at clean-up tonight, hitting fourth. Antonio Senzatela has been letting a ton of runners on base this season with a 1.97 WHIP, and that has increased to a 2.19 WHIP when he has pitched on the road. Pederson, with his .407 wOBA and .331 ISO vs. RHPs, is just a big hit waiting to happen and he should be able to get one or two at-bats in tonight with runners on. Joc Jams has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last 12 games. He could also just go out there and rock a home run (+425 to hit a HR) into McCovey Cove and take care of this prop without even needing any of his teammates to be on base! The plus money on this RBI prop looks like a strong value bet tonight.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!