By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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After that sorry excuse for a slate yesterday, we are back with a vengeance today. A full 15-game main slate is on deck this evening so we’ll certainly have our work cut out for us. However, just because every team is scheduled to play today doesn’t mean every one of them WILL play. There are several pesky weather concerns to track leading up to the first pitch and while there are no definite washouts as of now, I wouldn’t be too shocked if one or two of the match-ups gets nixed off the slate. Meanwhile, in-game delays or late starts may come into play in a few other areas. Let’s cut right to the chase and dive in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

As mentioned in the intro, there are plenty of weather concerns to stay on top of today as we get closer to the first pitch…

LAD @ PIT: Chance of low-coverage spotty showers, particularly in the mid-to-late innings. At worst, there’s maybe an in-game delay but they should play nine innings here.

NYM @ BAL: Chance of pop-up storms in the Baltimore area which could miss the ballpark entirely.

ATL @ PHI: Most of the bad weather should be moving out of the area by the first pitch. Should be good to go here with maybe a small chance for a late start.

SEA @ DET: Similar issue to Baltimore. Pop-up storms could develop, it’s just a matter of whether or not one will linger over the park. The forecast will be more trustworthy closer to the first pitch.

HOU @ BOS: A pretty reasonable chance for a late start here which could last an hour or two. Once (or if) they startup, there is a possibility they’ll have to play in some off-and-on rain. Moderate risk here.

MIL @ CIN: It would seem they’ll have to get very lucky to play this one completely dry. Moderate chance of rain both before, during, and after the scheduled game time. They certainly could get nine innings in here but I’d be wary about trusting the starting pitchers.

CLE @ STL: Lingering rain should be moving out of the area around the time of the first pitch or shortly thereafter. A late start is possible, but things are expected to run smoothly after that.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP) | DK: $10k, FD: $11k | vs. WAS

There are quite a few elite-level arms on the mound today so there will be some tough decisions to be made if you’re looking to spend up at the position. Glasnow is the first candidate that pops off the page for me. Aside from one poor outing that came at the ultra-hitter-friendly TD Ballpark, Glasnow has been super consistent with excellent upside all year. He is also particularly dominant at home in Tropicana Field which has rated out as the second-best pitcher’s park this season. Here are Glasnow’s number’s at home this season:

36.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 2.12 xFIP, 40.1% kRate, 0.76 WHIP, .155 AVG, .188 wOBA, 33.9 DKFPPG/56.4 FDFPPG

Certified stud numbers. Washington has some dangerous bats in that lineup but on the season they’re performing poorly against RHPs with just an 87 wRC+ (ranks 23rd). They usually roll out a fairly balanced lineup with 4-5 RHBs and 4-5 LHBs. Fortunately, Glasnow has at least a 38.0% kRate to both sides of the plate when pitching at home this season. Tampa Bay will also be the heaviest favorite of the day (-240) and you’ve got no weather concerns to worry about here. He won’t be sneaky by any means, but Glasnow is my preferred ‘tier one’ target today.

Carlos Rodon (LHP) | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.6k | vs. TOR

Rodon will be a strong pivot off of the likely higher-owned guys like Bieber, Glasnow, Buehler, and Bassitt. There are a couple of reasons I imagine Rodon’s ownership will be suppressed tonight: he’s disappointed in two of his last four starts and Toronto is not exactly an offense that people really want to target. However, when Toronto is on the road (as they are tonight) and away from those hitter-friendly ballparks (TD Ballpark & Sahlen Field) that have been their temporary homes, they’ve been a very average offense against LHPs. Here are the Toronto splits versus LHPs on the road: .244 AVG (ranks 11th), .301 wOBA (17th), .134 ISO (22nd), 92 wRC+ (16th). This season, Rodon is rocking a 1.98 ERA, 2.67 xFIP, 0.82 WHIP*, 37.2% kRate*, and allowing a .230 wOBA* (* = slate best). Yes, he’s had a couple of not-so-great outings over the last month… but, overall, the guy has been the definition of an ace pitcher. The Blue Jays are not super strikeout prone, but Rodon’s fantasy ceiling is as high as any pitcher on this slate and he probably comes in at about 10-15% ownership.

Dinelson Lamet (RHP) | DK: $7.3k, FD: $6.5k | vs. CHC

The Padres are going to continue to exercise caution with Lamet as he works on getting fully stretched out while shaking off an elbow issue that cut his 2020 campaign short. Once he starts seeing a more typical workload of 90-100 pitches, he’s likely going to be priced back up as a $9k-$10k type pitcher. There is reason to believe that the leash on his pitch count gets lengthened a bit more following a 72 pitch count in his last outing. For these salaries, we don’t need him to throw 95+ pitches… he could return value on around 80 or so pitches *if* he’s allowed to get to that point. Lamet’s 3.72 xFIP and 1.44 WHIP are a bit concerning but those aren’t exactly “terrible” figures. He has still maintained a low 2.50 ERA this season while holding a solid 26.9% kRate with a borderline elite 15.9% Swinging Strike Rate. Lamet has been a better pitcher at home throughout his career and the Cubbies have shown some offensive woes across their recent west coast road trip (.272 wOBA and 72 wRC+ over the last week). I’d be surprised if Lamet’s ownership exceeds about 5% so he makes for an intriguing GPP play tonight.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ There are no stand out stacks for me today and I believe ownership should be fairly spread out across this behemoth of a slate.

San Francisco Giants vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

The Giants make for an appealing stack option today, particularly if you’re looking to get a stud pitcher (or two on DK) into your lineups. With the exception of Buster Posey, none of the Giants hitters in the expected lineup are going to come anywhere close to breaking the bank. Jordan Lyles has posted some pretty lackluster numbers this season: 5.75 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, .364 wOBA, 91.3 mph average exit velo, 46.9% Hard Contact. The Giants also get a decent little park upgrade boost going from Oracle Park to the more hitter-friendly Globe Life Field. Despite having several of their routine starters riding the IL, their ‘replacement’ bats have been producing and over the last two weeks, San Francisco’s 127 wRC+ and .355 wOBA ranks second in the MLB.

Oakland Athletic’s vs. Jon Duplantier (RHP), ARI

The A’s could be an offense that separates itself as a more highly-owned stack once we get closer to lock… but honestly, the general public has been hesitant to load up on this offense this season even when they’re in good spots (aside from their recent series at Coors Field). There are one or two bats that may end up being pretty chalky (Olson and Canha, if I had to guess) but I believe the overall ownership stays relatively in check. Duplantier is one of, perhaps *THE*, lowest quality starting pitcher on this slate. He only has two starts this season (and hasn’t looked good in either) so there is not a significant 2021 sample size to go off of. But, across his 45.1 IP in the MLB, Duplantier has put up a 5.36 ERA, 5.78 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, 43.4% HardHit%, and has just a 20.3% kRate. He throws his fastball around 60% of the time and it only sits in the low-90s. Oakland has plenty of great fastball hitters so they should have a good shot at knocking him around early. Duplantier has only lasted 4.2 and 4.0 innings in his two starts this year, so the A’s likely see plenty of at-bats against a D-Backs bullpen that ranks bottom five by many key metrics.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Detroit Tigers vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

It seems like Marco Gonzales is getting some decent love today. If that is any indication that he’ll be remotely high-owned, then Detroit may be a GPP stack worth considering. They began the year struggling massively against lefties, but over the last month, they have actually been a top 10 offense when facing southpaw pitching (.335 wOBA, 114 wRC+ -- both rank 8th over the last 30 days). Detroit is also deploying eight righty/switch hitters. Against RHBs this season, Gonzales is allowing a massive .412 wOBA and .329 wOBA. The Tigers may offer up quite a few strikeouts, but I believe they’re fully capable of tagging up Gonzales.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

2B Nick Madrigal | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR

2B/3B Jean Segura | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), ATL

1B/OF Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/3B Jonathan India | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

1B/C Tyler Stephenson | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

OF Harold Ramirez | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Carlos Martinez (RHP), STL

1B Mitch Moreland | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jon Duplantier (RHP), ARI

OF Kyle Garlick | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

2B Christian Arroyo | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

San Francisco Giants bats | DK: $Cheap, FD: $Cheap | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Matt Olson | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jon Duplantier (RHP), ARI

I ended up being a day early on the Olson HR call this past Friday so I’m chasing here and going right back to him. Despite not hitting in Coors Field this go ‘round, he’ll still get a couple of cracks at a bad starting pitcher who gives up tons of barreled balls and plenty of hard contact. Olson is hitting a home run about once every 13 at-bats against RHPs this season and he’s rocking a .400 ISO over the last week. Good chance he knocks another one out tonight.

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