Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

🔊 Weekend Edition - On Deck Podcast with Joe & Chris

• 5:18 Saving $ with Tanner Roark & Davies

• 7:57 Hill, Scherzer or Flaherty?

• 13:48 Snell on Sunday?

• 16:18 Bieber / Odorizzi

• 20:47 Sunday Afternoon Games

• 25:43 Betting Lines / HR Calls

Happy Saturday! First and foremost, shout out to LineStar user Mikey1977 for winning $50,000 in the $200K extra inning tournament on DraftKings last night. Congratulations my friend! Let’s get another big winner from the LineStar family this weekend. We’ve got a small main slate tonight. Pitching is pretty ugly outside of the very top tier. We also have some question marks in terms who is actually pitching and for how long on both sides of the game in Los Angeles tonight. Hopefully we’ll get more clarity on that situation before lock tonight. Here’s a quick look at the games from a Vegas perspective:

Taking a quick look at the weather. The Texas heat is rising and it will be 90 degrees at first pitch tonight. That game has a 10.5 total so obviously offense is on the radar. I do have a unique (and very risky) take on that game which I’ll get to in a minute. It’s also worth pointing out the wind in Wrigley is projected to be blowing in around 11 mph. That’s fairly light for Wrigley standards but still a downgrade to the bats. Let’s get into this slate.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Max Scherzer: DK: $12K, FD: $11.7K | RHP | @San Diego

Don’t get cute. Scherzer is the top arm on the board today. Theoretically, you could make an argument for Rich Hill. He’s less expensive which is always a plus, he has some solid numbers this season including a 3.23 SIERA (granted he’s only pitched 27 innings so far), and he’s facing the Giants who are the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching including a .268 wOBA and .116 ISO with 24.3% strikeouts. It’s tempting to use Hill in this matchup and he’s absolutely worth some shares if you’re multi-entering today. But, he’s not Max Scherzer. Actually, let me rephrase that, he’s not Max Scherzer coming off a 15 strikeout performance AND an extra day of rest. Don’t let the 3-5 record fool you, he’s been getting pretty unlucky with the .357 BABIP against him. Despite this, Scherzer is still carrying a 2.95 SIERA and 31.4% strikeout rate. Give an additional boost to that strikeout rate tonight, as the Padres currently hold the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching at 26.9%. Double-digit strikeouts are very much on the table tonight for Mad Max.

Jon Gray: DK: $10.3K, FD: $8.4K | RHP | @New York Mets

There is nearly a $2,000 difference in Gray’s price on DraftKings versus FanDuel that needs to be acknowledged. Gray missed his last start due to a sore finger on his pitching hand but it was just a precaution and he’s expected to be a full-go tonight. This is the most extreme park shift you can get from a pitching standpoint. Gray’s last start was at home in the most hitter friendly park in baseball. Now he goes on the road at arguably the least hitter friendly park in baseball. Despite five starts at Coors this season, he still has a solid 3.92 SIERA and 26.2% strikeout rate. He’s forcing above average ground balls at 48.4% (51.9% to righties). The big red flag here is all the hard contact he’s allowing, including an ugly 44.3% to left-handed batters and 35.8% to right-handed batters. There’s a little more margin for error at Citi Field instead of Coors Field but still he better hope he forces as much of that hard contact on the ground as he can or he could get into trouble in a hurry. Gray is not typically a favorite option of mine, but his 3.45 xFIP and 27.8% strikeouts on the road (compared to a 4.26 xFIP and 21.3% strikeouts at home) are definitely encouraging. Find the extra money to get up to Scherzer or Hill on DraftKings but Gray is in play on FanDuel.

Adrian Sampson: DK: $6.4K, FD: $7.2K | RHP | vs. Oakland

Alright, alright stop laughing. I’m well aware that recommending Adrian Sampson sounds like a hilarious joke. Let’s break this down a little. First, it’s Adrian Sampson, in the Texas heat, in a game with a 10.5 total. I realize all of those things scream "run away." You’re not touching him in cash. This is strictly a game theory perspective in tournaments if you’re willing to stomach the risk. Pitching is pretty scarce today and there are a lot of questions marks in this value tier. We have no clue how many innings Yusei Kikuchi will go tonight. He’s been struggling and the Mariners believe it’s due to fatigue, so they skipped his last start. I don’t see him going more than a few innings and is likely not worth the investment. The Angels situation is completely unclear. Dillion Peters is expected to get called up and supposedly he and Trevor Cahill are both in the mix today but we don’t know who will open and who will follow and for how long. Unless we get more clarity on that, I’m staying away. Then we have Steven Matz, who is theoretically the obvious choice at this pricing level but the word “obvious” scares me here. Matz always seems to fail miserably whenever he’s a potential value chalk option. From a talent and numbers perspective, he’s the best option in this pricing tier but if he’s going to be as popular as I think he is (especially as a SP2 on DraftKings) I will be staying away myself. Too much risk and the Rockies are on fire right now. That basically leaves us with Sampson as the odd man out. I hate using pitchers in Texas but his last four starts need to be recognized (three of them were at home). He’s 4-0 during that span with a 2.38 ERA and a 3.68 xFIP. He has 23 strikeouts and just two walks with a 1.28 WHIP. He’s gone at least five innings in each of those starts including a seven inning, eleven strikeout performance against the Royals his last time out. I fully admit this is a risk and I’ll likely have a large alcoholic drink sitting next to me while I watch this game later just in case. But I’d rather take some shots on him then ride the chalk Matz train with the rest of the field.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Jeff Samardzija (RHP)

Not a park I would typically look at for stacking purposes but this is a pretty intriguing matchup for the Dodgers lineup against Samardzija. We know the Dodgers have some incredible power, particularly from the left-side, and that’s exactly where Samardzija is at his weakest. Left-handed home runs are pretty rare in San Francisco’s Oracle Park but a lot of singles and doubles can still get the job done from a stacking perspective. Samardzija has a brutal 6.43 xFIP and 1.42 WHIP against lefties this season. He’s allowing a massive 54.2% fly ball rate, 43.1% hard contact rate, and a ridiculously low 2.8% soft contact rate. The best part? BABIP versus lefties is well below average at .242, which tells us he’s actually been lucky despite these putrid numbers. Bellinger (1.317 OPS, .527 wOBA, .393 ISO), Pederson (1.025 OPS, .417 wOBA, .423 ISO), Seager (.200 ISO), and Muncy (.360 wOBA, .194 ISO) all look like outstanding options tonight. You certainly don’t need to back off of right-handed hitters here either but the lefties are just really standing out.

Washington Nationals vs Eric Lauer (LHP)

Lauer did have a solid start against the Nats earlier this season, going 5.2 innings and allowing just two hits and two earned runs in a no-decision. I’m not confident in a repeat performance, however, given his full body of work this season as well as Washington’s track record against left-handed pitching. Lauer has a not awful but unexciting 4.39 SIERA to go along with a very low 17.8% strikeout rate. Washington, meanwhile, is one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching with an outstanding .360 wOBA, .199 ISO, and 121 wRC+. I LOVE Anthony Rendon today (more on this in a moment) and I also really like Brian Dozier (more on this in a moment too) who is going to help make this stack more affordable as well.

Colorado Rockies vs. Steven Matz (LHP)

Similar to the Sampson recommendation, this is really more about game theory than anything else. If Matz turns out to be popular, which I believe will be the case, I’m going to want shares of the other side of that matchup. It’s a terrible park shift for the Rockies' bats but they are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Colorado, thanks to Nolan Arenado’s ridiculous .504 wOBA and .444 ISO, is a top 10 team in the league against left-handed pitching with a .326 wOBA and .199 ISO. Don’t forget about Trevor Story too. He is having a bit of a down year in terms of his production against lefties this season (.342 wOBA, .167 ISO) but he has a career .418 wOBA and .318 ISO against southpaws. Ian Desmond is also standing out with his .377 wOBA and and .333 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. For those of you into BvP, there’s some noteworthy stats there as well. As a team, in 49 plate appearances against Matz, the Rockies projected lineup has a .506 wOBA and .422 ISO. Arenado, Story, and Daniel Murphy all have a strong history in this match up.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Brian Dozier: DK: 3.7K, FD: $2.7K | 2B | vs. LHP Eric Lauer

Dozier is starting to look like his old self with double-digit fantasy point performances in four of his last six games. The price has yet to catch up to the recent production, however, and he’s looking like one of the better values on the board today against the left-handed Lauer. In his last 20 games against left-handed pitching, Dozier has ridiculous numbers including a 1.132 wOBA+ISO (you’re reading that correctly) and 3.45 FP/PA.

Paul DeJong: DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.7K | SS | vs. LHP Jon Lester

The Cardinals are not a team on my radar today from a stacking perspective but DeJong could make sense as a reasonably priced one-off in a pretty good match up against Jon Lester. Admittedly, Lester has been solid this season with a 3.87 SIERA, but he’s certainly not somebody we need to completely shy away from. In his last 20 games against left-handed pitching DeJong has a .674 wOBA+ISO and a 2.58 FP/PA. For those of you who are BvP truthers, he has a .346 wOBA and .231 ISO in 15 plate appearances against Lester. I’d like a larger sample but this is definitely notable.

Anthony Rendon: DK: $5.5K, FD: $4.6K | 3B | vs. LHP Eric Lauer

For my expensive bat on this slate, you’re going to want exposure to Anthony Rendon. You always want some exposure to him against lefties. He’s a little cold at the moment, with just 2.33 FPPG in his last three games but I’m hoping that just keeps the masses away. He has a career .382 wOBA and .209 ISO with 38.2% hard contact against left-handed pitching. Despite the less than ideal results the past few games, his statcast numbers from the past two weeks indicate he’s just been unlucky. He’s got a 96 mph average exit velocity during that span. He’s seeing the ball well. I like a bomb from him today.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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