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- Top MLB DFS Plays 6/7 | Slide into the Weekend on a High Note
Top MLB DFS Plays 6/7 | Slide into the Weekend on a High Note
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We’re kicking off the weekend with our usual massive Friday slate. There are a number of ways to attack this one and, with no Coors Field in play, there is no single game you have to feel pressured to stack up. Another great thing about today -- absolutely zero weather concerns! Perfect baseball conditions all across the country. Ya love to see that on a 14 game slate. Not to waste any time, let’s dive right in!
Today’s match-ups with moneylines and implied run totals:
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Jacob deGrom (DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.3k) | RHP | NYM vs. COL
On FanDuel, the difference between deGrom and paying all the way up for Gerrit Cole is only $900. But deGrom is much more preferable on DraftKings where you’re saving nearly $3,000 between the two. Either way, facing the Rockies away from Coors Field is a positive match-up and deGrom is still one of the premiere pitchers in baseball despite some early season hiccups. With a 28.9% kRate and 14.3% SwStr%, the strikeout upside is still very much there. When the Rockies have faced a righty on the road this season, they’ve put up some of the worst numbers in baseball: .288 wOBA (28th), .155 ISO (23rd), .288 OBP (29th), and 75 wRC+ (28th). They also provide plenty of punch out opportunities for opposing pitchers with a 24.6% kRate. Citi Field is one of the better pitchers parks and the Mets will be heavy -200 favorites while the Rockies possess just a 3.3 implied run total.
Zach Plesac (DK: $7k, FD: $7k) | RHP | CLE vs. NYY
Plesac is a really interesting play for tournaments that I don’t predict many people will be on. He put up some very impressive numbers in his time in the minor leagues and, so far, he looks to be transferring his skills pretty well into the big leagues. He only has 12.1 professional innings to his name, so it’s obviously not a lot to go off of, but he’s only allowed two earned runs in that time paired with nine strikeouts. There doesn’t seem to be a tight leash on his pitch count either as, in just his second MLB start, he threw for 96 pitches this past Sunday when he went against the White Sox. The Yankees are absolutely a dangerous team to face but we know that much of their damage is done with home runs. A positive about Plesac is that, in his time in the minor leagues, he managed to limit hitters to just 13 home runs in 253 innings resulting in an astounding 0.46 HR/9 Rate. Obviously an MLB lineup presents a much larger challenge but Vegas is giving Cleveland a reasonable fighting chance in this one, as they’re currently a slight +115 underdog. There’s plenty of inherited risk with rostering Plesac but there’s a window big enough for him to pay off.
Homer Bailey (DK: $4.5k, FD: $6k) | RHP | KC vs. CWS
Man, with these prices (especially on DraftKings), Homer is really being dangled out like a hot dog on a stick in front of a hungry dog. I’ll likely bite. He’s certainly struggled lately but two games against Texas (one at GLP) and another against St. Louis isn’t exactly an easy set of match-ups. His other recent start came against this same White Sox team in which he allowed just three hits and one run with five strikeouts across 4.1 innings amassing 15.4 DKFP/25 FDFP. If Bailey gives you similar production today, I think you’d take that 100% of the time for what you’re paying for him. Ideally, he’ll be allowed to pitch further into this game and throw around 90 pitches. Bailey is also taking the mound at home where the Royals are slightly favored and where he has shown a sizable increase in strikeouts and overall fantasy scoring production. He’s definitely worth a shot if you want to go big on some bats.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Rookie Davis (RHP | PIT)
If you’re prepared to pay a premium for these Brewers sluggers at home, I think you have a pretty solid chance at being rewarded. The Pirates will be rolling out righty Rookie Davis to start tonight. Davis is allowing a .400+ wOBA and .270+ ISO to both sides of the plate. Odds are that he doesn’t last too long on the mound, in which case the Pirates have had a very lackluster bullpen that has posted a 5.20 ERA, 4.63 xFIP, and 1.48 WHIP on the year. You may know about a guy named Christian Yelich (.506 wOBA, .429 ISO vs. RHP) that you would want to start your Brewers stack with. To pair with him, you have to like his fellow lefty teammates Mike Moustakas (.389 wOBA, .325 ISO) and Yasmani Grandal (.366 wOBA, .226 ISO).
Houston Astros vs. Gabriel Ynoa (RHP | BAL)
The Astros return home from a seven game road trip to Oakland and Seattle in which they went 6-1. Now they get the pleasure of waking up in their own beds today and facing an awful Orioles pitching staff. Gabriel Ynoa will likely look to be on the hill for the first four, maybe five, innings and I believe you’ll want to target righty bats against him, as he allows a .438 wOBA and .255 ISO to RHBs. Once Ynoa takes a seat, the Orioles bullpen will come into play for the final few innings. This season they’ve posted a 5.82 ERA, 4.87 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP, and 1.83 HR/9. I’ll state the obvious and look to start with Alex Bregman (.423 wOBA, .287 ISO vs. RHPs) and pair him with the scorching hot Robinson Chirinos (.406 wOBA, .312 ISO) and/or Michael Brantley (.397 wOBA, .224 ISO).
Detroit Tigers (RHBs) vs. Michael Pineda (RHP | MIN)
Pineda has surrendered at least three earned runs in nine consecutive starts and is allowing a .376 wOBA and .266 ISO to right-handed batters. Detroit is a pretty miserable offense but you could get a usable two or three-man stack out of these guys and they’re all dirt cheap. Winds will be blowing out around 10 mph in Detroit which could provide a small boost to hitters as well. Three guys who have the best splits against RHPs in the last month include: Brandon Dixon (.354 wOBA, .241 ISO), Nicholas Castellanos (.293 wOBA, .211 ISO), and JaCoby Jones (.385 wOBA, .257 ISO). Jones is someone I’ve mentioned before that always goes overlooked due to being stuck at the back of the order, but he’s had a lot of really strong games in the last month.
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Mike Trout (DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.8k) | OF | vs. LHP Marco Gonzales
If you were to spend up on just one elite bat, you won’t find many other hitters who are a safer investment than Mike Trout. But this is a pretty well known fact. Trout has been a machine lately -- in his last eight games he is hitting for a .393 AVG, .548 wOBA, and .464 ISO with four home runs. The guy is pretty good at what he does. He also has found plenty of success against Marco Gonzales. In 30 career plate appearances against him, Trout has a .462 AVG with a .560 wOBA, .346 ISO, and a pair of homers. With many routes that will allow you to pay up for hitters tonight, the Angels superstar is a low-risk/high-reward guy to roll out.
Kike Hernandez (DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k) | 2B/OF | vs. LHP Drew Pomeranz
Any time the Dodgers face a lefty, Kike typically makes for a great one-off piece to take from that offense. Hernandez is hitting lefties to the tune of a .381 wOBA and .230 ISO on 50.8% Hard Contact. Pomeranz has been borderline useless against RHBs this season, allowing a .444 wOBA and .289 ISO on a 25% HR/FB Rate. Hernandez has been slugging it, with three home runs in his last eight games. I’m predicting another one tonight. 💣💥
Brian Dozier (DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k) | 2B | vs. LHP Nick Margevicius
Dozier has three multi-hit games in his last four starts and his upside skyrockets once he gets a crack at a lefty. This season against LHPs, he has a .372 AVG, .472 wOBA, and .326 ISO. In his last 21 plate appearances against southpaws, his averages have been increasingly impressive with a .526 AVG and 1.188 wOBA+ISO. After a strong start to his rookie campaign, Margevicius is quickly fizzling out after allowing 18 earned runs in his last four starts (17.2 innings) including seven home runs. Considering the potential value to be had with Dozier, it’s hard not to like him even though he may not receive a high spot in the order.
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