By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Following what was a pretty odd little Monday slate last night, we’ll see a much juicier 12-game main slate make its way into our DFS crosshairs on this fine Tuesday. Of course, with a dozen games on the docket, that means 24 offenses and 24 starting pitchers are in play today. While there are certainly some standout pitching and hitting/stack options available, I wouldn’t say either side is particularly loaded. There will be many, many ways to go about attacking this one and it looks like a good day to stray away from some of the chalk. Let’s have fun with this one!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There are a few areas that could see some rain but the expectation is that it won’t be overly problematic. We might see a couple of delays but any sort of postponement situation would be a surprise at this time.

CHC @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): This is looking like the main game to watch as far as weather risk goes. It’s looking like some rain will be in the area throughout this game but it’s expected to be mostly light stuff that they could hopefully just play through. Winds also blowing OUT to left at 10 mph.

DET @ PIT (7:05 ET, 7 O/U): They’ll have some scattered rainstorms around that clear as the evening goes on. Potential for a late start or delay. Not looking like a washout PPD scenario.

OAK @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U): More low-end chances for some scattered storms. A late start or in-game delay is possible but is rather unlikely.

TOR @ KC (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Low-end chance for rain during the game. Currently, it seems as if they should play this one mostly dry. Winds blowing IN from right at 5-10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.5k | vs. OAK

Outside of two poor outings against the Mets and Red Sox, Wright has been anywhere from “solid” to “excellent” in his other eight outings. He’s also been a bit better at home this season where he has posted a 2.70 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, .172 opp AVG, and 29.5% kRate in 36.2 home innings. He’ll draw the softest match-up he’s seen all season with the Oakland A’s coming to town. The A’s have struggled in general all season but they’ve been particularly bad when facing RHPs on the road: .202 AVG, .262 wOBA, .114 ISO, 70 wRC+, 27.6% kRate. We should expect Wright to push for 8-10 strikeouts in this match-up while covering at least six full innings. The Braves also check in as the second-heaviest favorites on the slate with -240 ML odds.

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.4k | @ PIT

Skubal has always had some great strikeout potential but in his first two seasons in the MLB (2020, 2021), he would run the risk of getting blown up on occasion due to his propensity to give up home runs. In 2020, Skubal possessed a lofty 2.53 HR/9 Rate and only improved that to a 2.11 HR/9 Rate last season. This season, Skubal has made some adjustments. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and incorporating the slider much more often. That has forced more groundballs (46.4% GB%) while still maintaining a 27% kRate. He’s given up just two home runs across 58.2 IP this season, which works out to a marvelous 0.31 HR/9 Rate. Skubal’s excellent 2.79 xFIP and 2.97 SIERA are the lowest figures among today’s starters as well. He’s on the road today but draws a juicy match-up with a Pirates team that has not hit southpaw pitching well this season. The Pirates are among the bottom 10 offenses against LHPs, hitting just .229 as a team with a 91 wRC+ and a 23.3% kRate. Given Detroit’s lack of offensive firepower, it says a lot about Skubal’s talent that they’re even slight -130 road favorites today. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s 3.2 implied run total is the lowest on the slate.

Mitch White (RHP), LAD | DK: $6.1k, FD: $5.8k | @ CWS

For a bottom-of-the-barrel cheap play (preferably on DK as an SP2 in GPPs), Mitch White may be worth a look. After playing mostly out of the bullpen this season, White will be making his fourth consecutive start today. In his most recent outing, White was able to cover five full innings of work on a season-high 78 pitches thrown. It was a pretty easy match-up against the Pirates, but he was able to record seven strikeouts in that time (and 16 DKFP/27 FDFP), though he did allow three runs on four hits and a couple of walks. But he has above average strikeout potential with a 25.3% kRate along with a pretty decent 1.21 WHIP and 3.84 xFIP. The White Sox have been playing better lately and don’t strikeout a ton, but they’re still without their best hitter (Tim Anderson) and their 82 wRC+ on the season is the third-lowest in baseball (ahead of only the A’s and Tigers). The Dodgers are slight -125 road favorites today and if White continues to push closer to a typical starter’s workload, he could easily go 5+ innings in this game and perhaps qualify for the win if the Dodgers provide him with some run support -- they do have a few guys that can hit pretty well, after all.

Also Consider:

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.9k | vs. SEA

Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $10k, FD: $11k | @ KC

Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.7k | @ TB

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Atlanta Braves vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

The Braves lead the league with a 25.6% kRate so any time they get a shot to face off with a low-strikeout starter, especially if that starter is a lefty, then they’re going to be worth some stack consideration. Cole Irvin has posted just a 14.8% kRate this season. He has also gone from a 1.61 ERA when pitching at home, where he has also allowed zero HRs this season, to a 5.09 ERA on the road with a 2.55 HR/9 Rate. The Braves are one of the top offenses against LHPs with a .343 wOBA (ranks 4th), .200 ISO (1st), and 117 wRC+ (5th). They are coming off of a four-game series in Colorado but after a day off yesterday, perhaps that “Coors hangover” won’t be too severe. Once Irvin’s day is done, a bottom 10 ranked Oakland bullpen will enter the game.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson | Sneaky Bat: William Contreras

Houston Astros vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

Flexen limited the Astros to just one run across seven innings when he went up against them a couple of weeks ago at home in Seattle. But he has had some problems on the road this season where he has a 5.04 ERA, 5.45 xFIP, and 1.55 WHIP. He’s also a pitcher who has allowed a lot of hard hit balls (43.3% HH%) and he has permitted the most barreled balls (20) among today’s starters as well. After slumping for a bit towards the back half of May, the Astros bats are heating back up and they enter this game having accounted for a 147 wRC+ over the last week (ranks 3rd). They’re also a very tough team to strikeout and Flexen, who is a low strikeout pitcher to begin with, could run into several guys who force some extended at-bats. Seattle’s bullpen has posted a 4.53 xFIP over the last two weeks (fifth-worst) and has given up 1.77 HR/9 as well, so the Astros could blast some big hits even after Flexen is off the mound.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker | Sneaky Bat: Yuli Gurriel

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs (RHBs Preferred) vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

I don’t expect the Cubs to fly way under the radar but, on a big 12-game slate like this one, any team outside of the more obvious stacks (Braves, Astros, Yankees, Blue Jays) should still provide some low-owned leverage. The Cubs have been sneaky good recently -- 121 wRC+ over the last two weeks, and 145 wRC+ over the last week. They face off with a young righty in Kyle Bradish who has struggled to a 6.82 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 24.2% HR/FB Rate, and a 44.2% HardHit% this season. Bradish’s reverse splits have been particularly bad. Against 79 RHBs faced, Bradish is allowing a .382 AVG, .492 wOBA, and .338 ISO while accounting for a 10.47 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, and 3.86 HR/9 Rate. A few of these Cubs bats could take advantage of this match-up today.

Favorite CHC Bats: Willson Contreras, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom | Sneaky Bat: Nico Hoerner

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.2k, FD: | vs. Cole Sands (RHP), MIN

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $6k, FD: | vs. Michael Kpech (RHP), CWS

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.9k, FD: | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.5k, FD: | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

OF Joc Pederson | DK: $5.5k, FD: | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $5.1k, FD: | vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), MIL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $4.7k, FD: | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

C Willson Contreras | DK: $4.6k, FD: | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Luis Gonzalez | DK: $3.4k, FD: | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

1B Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.3k, FD: | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

1B/OF Brendan Donovan | DK: $3.2k, FD: | vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB

OF Rafael Ortega | DK: $3k, FD: | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

3B Jason Vossler | DK: $2.7k, FD: | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

1B Yuli Gurriel | DK: $2.7k, FD: | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

1B Luke Voit | DK: $2.7k, FD: | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $2.5k, FD: | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.2k, FD: | vs. Cole Sands (RHP), MIN

I’m not exactly going out on a limb today with this home run call. Judge and the Yankees will go up against young right-hander Cole Sands who has only eight MLB innings pitched under his belt. He has already given up a couple of home runs in those eight innings and has allowed a high 91.8 mph average exit velocity on batted balls. In 49 at-bats against RHPs on the road, Judge is hitting a whopping .367 with seven home runs, a .536 wOBA, .407 ISO, 266 wRC+, and a ridiculous 58.3% HR/FB Rate. Basically, every seven at bats against RHPs on the road, Judge has homered. Will that trend continue? I like the chances. The Twins bullpen has been giving up its fair share of home runs lately as well.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Willson Contreras OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

I ran this same prop bet one day last week and Contreras came through to cash it. It’s looking like another good spot to go back to it! He has hit the over on this prop in seven of his last 11 games but, more importantly, he is setting up with a great match-up today. Kyle Bradish has had some extremely poor reverse splits this season. Against RHBs, he’s allowing a .382 AVG, .492 wOBA, and .338 ISO while accounting for a 10.47 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, and 3.86 HR/9 Rate. Contreras has traditional splits so, as a right-handed batter, he’s typically better against LHPs. However, he’s still rock-solid against RHPs. Over the last month, he’s hitting .265 against righties with a .377 wOBA. A third of his hits against RHPs in that span have gone for extra bases. Some 10 mph winds are blowing out to left in this game as well, which doesn’t hurt either.

Tarik Skubal OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | -130 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

Skubal has averaged just over a strikeout per inning this season (61 Ks in 58.2 IP) and an overall 27.0% kRate. It’s been an impressive feat because eight of the teams he has faced in his 10 starts have been low-strikeout offenses (COL, KC, HOU, CLE x2, MIN x2, and CWS). He draws a match-up with the Pirates today who have posted a 23.3% kRate vs. LHPs this season (10th highest). In Skubal’s section above in the DFS recommended pitchers section, I mentioned how he’s been going to his slider much more this season. The slider has accounted for just under a third of Skubal’s total pitches thrown and he’s tacked on over an extra three mph of velocity on that pitch compared to last year. Against sliders this season, the Pirates have a lofty 34.3% kRate (3rd highest) with just a .170 batting average (lowest in MLB on slider pitches). Skubal has thrown at least 100 pitches in three of his last four starts so he should have plenty of time to rack up at least six strikeouts in this game.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!