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Top MLB DFS Plays 6/6 | Standing Out on a Small Slate
5:15 What We Got Right / Wrong
11:50 Day Games
19:00 Main Slate
22:25 Trevor Bauer vs. Minnesota
28:00 Skaggs vs. Oakland
33:30 Betting Lines
34:35 HR Calls
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Thursday will bring us a modest little five game evening slate to keep us on our toes as we near the weekend. Days like this provide a great challenge as we look to separate ourselves from the pack and try to find unique approaches. Ownership can be very condensed, with just ten teams in play, so figuring out what chalk to eat and who to fade takes a little extra precedent today. This will be a very "GPP-oriented" newsletter today. The only real weather concern we have to monitor is a slight risk of isolated storms in the vicinity of Arlington, so there is small chance for some sort of delay but not super likely. Otherwise, no postponement threats across the board.
Today’s match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Trevor Bauer (DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.4k) | RHP | CLE vs. MIN
A large portion of people will be looking to pay up for Corbin by default and moving on. Tough to blame them considering Corbin seems to be the “safest” option on the board. All signs point to NOT playing Trevor Bauer, which will obviously make him a clear leverage play. The Twins are about the last team you want to attack with a righty pitcher considering they’ve shown the most power against RHPs by far, with a league leading team .248 ISO -- the Dodgers are the next closest with a .215 ISO versus RHPs. They also have the fourth lowest strikeout rate at 20.1%. Despite Bauer’s inconsistencies thus far in the year, he is absolutely talented enough to find success here, evidenced by his 2019 debut against Minnesota in which he threw 107 pitches across seven innings allowing just one hit and striking out nine. The lineup he’ll see today should be nearly identical to the one he saw on March 30th. Bauer leads all pitchers on the slate with a 27% kRate and the Twins are hitting just .220 against him in their last 139 at-bats.
Ariel Jurado (DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.1k) | RHP | TEX vs. BAL
Jurado is an interesting pitcher to punt today. He’s coming off of a solid win against the Royals (also in Globe Life Park) in which he went for 101 pitches across six innings, allowing five hits, two runs, and carded six punch outs. A similar performance against the Orioles would result in great value and is certainly doable. Jurado’s 53.2% Ground Ball Rate is tops on the slate and he’s allowing just 26.6% Fly Balls on 35.8% Hard Contact. A major risk of deploying a pitcher in Globe Life Park is the threat of allowing multiple home runs and getting yanked early. But Baltimore does produce the lowest amount of Hard Contact (32%) against RHPs in the league. Mancini, Nunez, and Smith Jr. are the only three guys in this order that would worry me a great deal. If Jurado can simply force the Orioles into a bunch of ground balls, he could find a way to pick up around five or six strikeouts along the way en route to five or six innings of work. The Rangers are the second largest favorites on the slate at -165, so Jurado has a much better chance than most other pitchers at snagging those crucial bonus points for a win/quality start.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
New York Yankees vs. Edwin Jackson (RHP | TOR)
The Yankees may be popular today but I’ll happily take some shares against Edwin Jackson who has given up 22 runs across his last three starts/11.1 innings. His last start came at Coors Field, but that doesn’t solely excuse allowing ten runs in just 2.1 innings. He is a gas can waiting to get lit up. If the Yankees force an early exit for Jackson, the Toronto bullpen has posted bottom five numbers in the last month with a 5.44 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Gary Sanchez (.427 wOBA, .413 ISO) and Luke Voit (.396 wOBA, .247 ISO) are your best bets but will cost a pretty penny. DJ LeMahieu (.351 wOBA, .151 ISO) is considerably cheaper and has similar upside from the lead off spot. If you really want to drop back, Cameron Maybin (.369 wOBA, 5 SB in last month) is cheap and could work out as part ‘wrap-around’ stack piece from the nine hole.
San Diego Padres vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP | WAS)
The stack with the most potential leverage would have to be the Padres tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Patrick Corbin’s ownership approach ~40%, even in GPPs. Corbin has shown some struggles on the road this season where his ERA rises to 4.96 -- 2.64 runs higher than his home ERA of 2.32. Earned run average isn’t always the best metric to judge a pitcher by but, elsewhere, his road splits include a 4.20 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, 1.93 HR/9, and 40.8% Hard Contact Rate, which are all far worse than his home splits. San Diego likely sees at least a couple innings against the Washington bullpen and their league-worst 6.68 ERA, 5.01 xFIP, and 1.60 WHIP. The Padres are about the most enigmatic offense in baseball but they have some seriously dangerous right-handed bats that are fully capable of ruining an ace’s day -- especially the southpaws such as Corbin. The best guys against lefties in this order include Manny Machado (.569 wOBA, .528 ISO), Wil Myers (.413 wOBA, .294 ISO), and the @ZeroInDenver favorite: THE GREAT HUNTER RENFROE (.414 wOBA, .405 ISO).
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Hunter Pence (DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.2k) | OF | vs. RHP David Hess
The Rangers easily have the highest implied total of the day at nearly six runs so, with David Hess looking to throw out some batting practice, if you’re not stacking these guys, I believe you want to get some sort of one-off exposure. Hess has shown some pretty drastic reverse splits this season, as he is allowing a massive .423 wOBA and .426 ISO to RHBs. His 4.24 HR/9 Rate against righties is easily explained once you realize he is allowing 45.5% Hard Contact on a 61.1% Fly Ball Rate. Pence oddly hasn’t had many big games at GLP this year and is in somewhat of a slump but he is the best Rangers righty with a .386 wOBA/.283 ISO split versus RHPs. He’ll be my guy that I’m predicting will go yard tonight. 💣
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k) | 3B | vs. LHP JA Happ
Through Vlad Jr.’s first 33 games in the Majors, I’d say he is meeting expectations and then some. He’s launched seven home runs already while accounting for a 112 wRC+ and has an OPS that sits above league average right around .800. He’s doing this while getting a little unlucky, with a .269 BABIP. The best part is that Vlad is only going to get better. For DFS purposes, his salaries are typically pretty cheap despite the upside he can provide. JA Happ has stitched together a couple solid back-to-back starts but, on the season against righties, he is still allowing a .349 wOBA and .269 ISO on 43.5% Hard Contact/49.6% Fly Ball Rate. Guerrero Jr. has plenty of power to punish Happ with if the Yankee lefty goes out with some control issues this evening as he takes on his former team.
Marcus Semien (DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k) | SS | vs. LHP Tyler Skaggs
Semien broke out of a little four game slump yesterday on the heels of a 3-4 day with a walk, two runs, and three RBI. Skaggs has been putting up pretty good results this season but he’s still allowing decent numbers to RHBs with a .334 wOBA, .184 ISO, and 43.4% Hard Contact. Semien has shown a solid floor much of the year and makes a very strong BvP case today as well. In 22 plate appearances against Skaggs, Semien has a .476 AVG, .599 wOBA, and .476 ISO with a pair of home runs.
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