By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Welcome back to another non-stop week of MLB DFS action! It’ll be a more modest start to the week with only a six-gamer on the docket today. Also, keep in mind that this slate is scheduled to start up a bit earlier than usual with the first game set for 6:40 ET/3:40 PT.

Unfortunately, this is one of those days where potential bad weather could end up making what is an already small slate even smaller. Both of the Ohio games (ARI @ CIN, TEX @ CLE) currently have some legitimate delay/postponement risk this evening so we’ll have to track those games leading up to lock (or we may see an early PPD announcement or two). Alright, it may be a short slate but there’s still plenty to get into so let’s hop to it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

All of the weather worries are out in Ohio today. Fortunately, both of those games lead off the slate so if either or both home teams decide to postpone, we *should* likely get that news well before lock... hopefully.

ARI @ CIN (6:40 ET, 10 O/U): A couple of scattered storm systems look to move through the area in the afternoon before the game, then a larger band of storms threaten to roll through around first pitch and they could hang around a while. Some sort of delay seems like a legit possibility and the same can be said for a postponement if things start looking ugly closer to first pitch.

TEX @ CLE (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): There is a large band of storms that threaten the Cleveland area but it could also skim by and stay to the north. If they avoid trouble there, they could likely start the game on time, however, some of those same storms that may affect the game in Cincy could cause some trouble in the later innings in Cleveland. If they play, winds will be blowing OUT to center at 15+ mph.

Note: I’m writing today’s newsletter a bit earlier than usual so there is a lot that could change between now and ~7:00 ET. I’m no meteorologist, but currently, I’d feel better about the TEX@CLE game playing as opposed to the ARI@CIN game. Still, I’ll be cautiously keeping players from both games within DFS consideration and won’t avoid highlighting them in this newsletter.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9k | vs. SEA

With no weather issues to worry about, high but not too restrictive DFS salaries, and a decent enough match-up, Javier is setting up as perhaps the most appealing SP play today. Some other things are standing out here as well. Javier holds a slate-best 2.41 ERA, 3.18 SIERA, and 31.5% kRate this season. He’s been stellar at home where, in 23.2 IP, he has garnered a 0.38 ERA, 2.86 xFIP, 0.72 WHIP, .139 opp AVG, and a massive 36.0% kRate. Overall, the Mariners have been strong against RHPs this season -- their 114 wRC+ ranks them 5th in the MLB. However, they’ve been much more of an average offense when you look at their splits on the road where, against RHPs, they land much closer to the middle of the pack with a 101 wRC+ (ranks 13th) along with a moderately high 22.8% kRate. The Mariners are averaging only 3.69 runs/gm on the road this season. Despite having a talented counterpart in Robbie Ray pitching on the other side, Javier and the Astros will check in with the best odds to win today as -185 favorites while the Mariners possess a slate-low 3.5 implied run total.

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.5k | vs. NYM

The reasoning for considering Blake Snell on this slate includes many similarities to the aforementioned Javier; no weather issues in this game, affordable DFS salaries, and the Mets have not been overly effective against southpaw pitching this season, so the match-up is not as scary as some may initially believe. Also, much like Cristian Javier, Snell is a guy who has pitched drastically better at home. After dealing with an injury to start the year, this will be only his fourth start of his 2022 campaign but let’s take a look at Snell’s extreme home/road splits going back to the start of the 2021 season when he joined the Padres roster…

Home: 73.2 IP, 2.69 ERA, 2.88 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, .158 opp AVG, 36.3% kRate

Away: 70.0 IP, 5.91 ERA, 4.76 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, .258 opp AVG, 25.8% kRate

Yeah… it’s safe to say that Snell has been almost a completely different pitcher for the Padres when he’s on the mound at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. While the Mets offense has been killing righties this year (120 wRC+ vs. RHPs, ranks 1st), they’ve posted a very average 101 wRC+ vs. LHPs (ranks 16th). On the road against LHPs, they’ve struggled even more and have posted an 85 wRC+, ranking 23rd. The Mets do not have many guys in their lineup who strikeout often, but at these DFS salaries, we don’t necessarily need 8+ Ks out of Snell for value, though that is still well within his wheelhouse when he’s on top of his game. When Snell last pitched against the Mets at home, almost a year to the day (6/4/21), he threw an absolute gem: 101 PC, 7.0 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 10 K, 1 W -- 39 DKFP/61 FDFP. I doubt we see that kinda performance today, but it is nice to know he has that sort of ceiling!

Also Consider:

Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.3k, FD: $8.5k | @ NYM

*Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. ARI

*Pending weather.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

What’s not to like about the Blue Jays today? They’re back to smashing as of late and have scored at least six runs in nine of their last 11 games. Over the last two weeks, they lead the entire MLB with a .392 team wOBA, .248 team ISO, and a 158 wRC+. In that same two-week stretch specifically against lefty pitching, they’re hitting .354 with a .440 team wOBA, .231 team ISO, and205 wRC+! Daniel Lynch comes in as arguably the lowest-quality starter on the slate while ranking last with a 4.96 xFIP and 1.56 WHIP.

Behind Lynch will be a Royals bullpen that has been suspect all season but they’ve been arguably the worst relief unit in the MLB over the last couple of weeks -- in the past 14 days, they have accounted for a league-worst 1.72 WHIP and 5.24 xFIP while allowing a .278 AVG and striking out only 16.8% of hitters. They’re sure to carry some high ownership on this slate (especially if one or both of the Ohio games gets PPD) and they won’t come cheap, but it’s hard to hate on these Blue Jay bats today.

Favorite TOR Bats: George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez | Sneaky Bat: Santiago Espinal

Boston Red Sox vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA

Perhaps this stack falls a bit on the riskier side of things today but it’s certainly one that could easily pay off. You have to wonder if team morale is at an all-time low out in Anaheim. They head into today having lost 11 games in a row, most recently in walk-off fashion against the Phillies yesterday where the Angels blew a four-run lead heading into the bottom of the eighth. A couple of their top hitters (Ward and Rendon) are currently riding the IL and even the great Mike Trout is struggling at the plate with a seven-game hitless streak.

Noah Syndergaard has been erratic on the mound lately while allowing a 29.8% LineDrive% over the last month, and Boston was able to do a decent amount of damage against him when they faced off back on May 3rd. If Boston can retire Syndergaard early, they’ll see some extra at-bats against an Angels bullpen that has a 1.62 WHIP, 6.51 ERA, and 1.91 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks. The Red Sox also come in with momentum as winners of four straight games and owners of a 149 wRC+ over the last 14 days (ranks 2nd in MLB behind only the aforementioned Blue Jays). No matter the score, the Red Sox are also guaranteed to hit in the ninth inning as the road team, and Angel Stadium profiles as a solid hitter’s park.

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo | Sneaky Bat: Jarren Duran

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

*Cleveland Guardians vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

*Weather Pending

As long as the forecast looks like it will allow for this game to be played, it may be a sneakier spot to go to for offense, especially with those 15+ mph winds blowing out to center field. The Guardians are 5-1 over their last six games and in that span, they’ve posted a 120 wRC+ while striking out a league-low 9.6% of the time. Following a 12 K performance against the Rays last Wednesday, Jon Gray is now posting a career-high 26.0% kRate on the season. But he’ll have a very difficult time earning outs via strikeouts against this Cleveland team. The Guardians are all about making some contact and they currently lead the MLB with an 87.5% Contact% on pitches inside the zone. Over the last month, Gray has allowed a low 12.5% SoftContact% next to a high 35.9% HardContact% and 28.1% LineDrive%. I could easily see Gray struggling in this game and behind him will be a good but not great Rangers bullpen that has accounted for only a 17.0% kRate over the last two weeks.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Andres Giminez, Owen Miller | Sneaky Bat: Josh Naylor

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA

OF George Springer | DK: $5k, FD: $4k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

SS Bobby Witt Jr. | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5 | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

*2B/SS Andres Gimenez | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

*1B Christian Walker | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

*1B Joey Votto | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

1B Jared Walsh | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

*Weather Pending

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

I have to be honest, the value tier is pretty rough today even if all six games play without issue. Proceed with caution as you search through the cheap bats today!

1B/OF Franchy Cordero | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

1B Luke Voit | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

*C Sam Huff | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

OF Jarren Durran | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA

1B/3B Matt Duffy | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

*OF Oscar Gonzalez | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

*Weather Pending

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.3k, FD: | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA

Devers has been a machine over the last month while hitting .395 with a monstrous .502 wOBA, .360 ISO, and 236 wRC+. In that span, 24 of his 45 hits have been of the extra base hit variety, including eight home runs. Noah Syndergaard has only surrendered four home runs this season, but three of those came off the bats on left-handed hitters resulting in a 1.35 HR/9 Rate -- Devers was responsible for one of those three LHB home runs against Syndergaard when the Red Sox faced him back on May 3rd. There’s even more appeal here when you consider the fact that Devers should get a couple of at-bats against an Angels bullpen that has a league-worst 1.91 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Rafael Devers OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +100 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Bonus Bet: Rafael Devers to Hit a HR | +330 (FanDuel) | 0.5 Units

Devers is simply locked in at the plate right now and there is a long list of reasons why I’m rolling with him as my home run call today (and will be throwing a small bet on his HR prop). But if he fails to go yard, I’d be on the lookout for either a multi-hit game or for Devers to at least smack a double into the gap. He’s hit the over on this prop bet in eight of his last 11 games so the even money odds attached to this prop stand out as excellent value. Syndergaard hasn’t been consistent whatsoever lately and he’s been allowing a significantly higher-than-average amount of line drives over the last month. Since line drives usually fall for hits, and Devers has been hitting nearly everything thrown his way, I’d look for him to hit the over on 1.5 bases tonight. The fact that the Angels bullpen has been reeling in recent weeks is a nice plus here as well.

Mets @ Padres: No Run Scored in the First Inning (NRFI) | -145 | 3.0 Units

I’ve been dabbling around with some NRFI bets as of late and have had some nice success with it so I’ll throw this one out there for tonight. The 7.5 run total in this game is easily the lowest of the slate and it makes sense with two talented starters on the mound in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Since joining the Padres, LHP Blake Snell has posted a 0.95 WHIP and held opponents to a .158 AVG when pitching at home. The Mets, while talented, have been a below-average offense against LHPs, especially when they’ve played on the road. On the other side, the Padres are hitting only .228 against RHPs this season with an 86 wRC+, which places them well inside the bottom 10 offenses against righty pitching. RHP Carlos Carrasco has looked fairly sharp this season and has allowed two runs or fewer in 4-of-6 starts. I’d look for both pitchers to make it out of the first inning unscathed here.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!