Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

🔊 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney 6/5/19

• 11:30 Main Slate Breakdown

• 15:30 Opportunity with Mets Offense

• 27:30 Double Dipping in Texas

• 29:15 Top Value Pitcher / Sale @ Royals

• 33:50 Reds Value Stack

• 37:45 From A Betting Standpoint / 💣💣 Calls

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As we all predicted, yesterday was dominated by Miami/Baltimore stacks which took down all the money! Another sizable MLB main slate looms on the horizon as twelve games will fall onto the evening docket. At first glance, unless you’re paying up for pitching, the mid-range and value range of pricing seems like a very tricky group of guys to navigate but inevitably some will outperform their given salaries. Let’s see if we can find some gems today! But first, there are a lot of weather concerns that will need to be monitored. Pesky rain is all over the country and could impact upwards of half the games tonight. More info below!

Today’s overview of games with totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

None of these games seem risky enough to completely write off for the time being but it’s definitely a day where we’ll need to pay attention to the weather man.

ATL @ PIT: Storms could be moving into the area soon after first pitch is scheduled and hang around for a couple hours. If they start delayed, it may be a while before the weather clears and the field can be ready for play and for players to warm up. This one could get tricky, so pay close attention as the day progresses!

CIN @ STL: A line of storms may cause a delay here as well but seems like less of a PPD threat than in Pittsburgh.

MIN @ CLE: Good chance at a late start but rain should clear the area around an hour after first pitch is scheduled.

SF @ NYM: Moderate rain around New York but it seems they could play through it.

BAL @ TEX: Some severe pop-up storms around Texas but they may not be much of an actual threat to Globe Life Park.

TB @ DET: Possible late start as pregame rains clear the area.

BOS @ KC: Risk of a pop-up storm over the stadium. Potential in-game delay. Will be around 90 degrees and humid. Using starting pitchers here could be tricky. Another area to check the forecast for as we get closer to first pitch.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

James Paxton (DK: $11.3k, FD: $10k) | LHP | NYY @ TOR

Considering Chris Sale has thrown for double-digit strikeouts in six of his last eight games, I was really tempted to highlight him as a spend-up option but the weather in Kansas City is a bit dicey at the moment so Paxton it is! Paxton still appears to be a great option with high strikeout and win potential. He leads all pitchers on this slate with a 34.9% kRate and 14.9% SwStr% while allowing just a .100 ISO to LHBs and .135 ISO to RHBs. Toronto has struggled to produce against lefties all season with a team .285 wOBA (27th), .140 ISO (25th), and 77 wRC+ (27th). Toronto also has a 24.4% kRate versus LHPs and the fourth highest swinging strike rate in the league at 11.7%. No pitcher has been a surefire bet to produce, but all indications for Paxton are overwhelmingly positive. The only major concern would be if he is still on some sort of pitch count after starting just one game since returning from a knee injury. Considering he tossed seven strikeouts on 66 pitches in four shutout innings his last time out a week ago, I’d expect for him to top 90 pitches at minimum and quite possibly take on a typical 100+ pitch workload. It’s something worth monitoring though and seeing what the beat reporters have to say later in the day.

Jimmy Nelson (DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.5k) | RHP | MIL vs. MIA

Can we trust a guy who hasn’t made a Major League start in nearly two years? I don’t think “trust” would be the correct word. But we can certainly roll him out in some spots and hope for the best. I’ve found no official source indicating any sort of pitch count that Nelson may have but, if it’s any consolation, in his last minor league start a week ago he threw 97 pitches across five shutout innings, allowing three hits, three walks, with seven strikeouts. In 24 innings at the triple-A level this year, he has a 28.4% kRate while allowing a .207 AVG and 1.25 WHIP. Those aren’t numbers that would indicate that his old shoulder injury is still an issue. Obviously, making the move up and facing an MLB lineup is a more difficult challenge. But this is also a Marlins team that *has* looked like a borderline minor league team for much of the season… then again, they’ve scored 34 runs in their last three games (big shrug to that). Gotta love baseball! But the Brewers are currently the largest favorites on the slate at -260, so Vegas doesn’t seem to be buying what the Miami offense is selling. Also, Nelson turns 30 today… so he’s got the birthday narrative going if that’s your thing.

John Means (DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.2k) | LHP | BAL @ TEX

Playing John Means at Globe Life Park is safe by no… means. Though, if you can stomach the risk, there is some reward potential. As a team, Texas has a 27.3% kRate against LHPs -- the second highest mark in the league. They often roll out four or five LHBs in their everyday lineup regardless of pitching match-ups. John Means has a 29.4% kRate against LHBs and holds them to a .178 AVG and .265 wOBA. There’s a heavy possibility that he just gets rocked within the first couple of innings but there is also a realistic chance of him racking up 15-18 outs with six or seven strikeouts and minimal run damage allowed.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Houston Astros vs. Mike Leake (RHP | SEA)

The best (active) Houston sluggers are all still priced pretty affordably on both sites so, even though T-Mobile Park isn’t a great hitting environment, I don’t see a problem with a late-night Astros stack to (hopefully) hammer home some of your lineups. Mike Leake continues to be a guy I will look to pick on considering he has a 2.23 HR/9 Rate and allows a .230+ ISO to both sides of the plate. I believe you can get considerable safety plus upside with guys like Alex Bregman (.421 wOBA, .297 ISO), Michael Brantley (.401 wOBA, .230 ISO), and Robinson Chirinos (.390 wOBA, .290 ISO).

Minnesota Twins (LHBs) vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP | CLE)

Carrasco has looked off for a few starts now and is really struggling at preventing home runs and overall production, particularly to left-handed batters. He is allowing a .380 wOBA and .289 ISO to lefties. The Twins are not the team that you want to have issues with against the left side of the plate. Jorge Polanco (.442 wOBA, .283 ISO) isn’t cheap but he’s the Twins best hitter and probably the guy you’d feel best about rolling out. For considerable salary savings, you could roll out switch-hitter Marwin Gonzales (.312 wOBA, .162 ISO) and, assuming he gets the start, the power lefty catcher Jason Castro (.407 wOBA, .355 ISO).

St. Louis Cardinals (LHBs) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP | CIN)

DeSclafani has posted very extreme splits this season. Against RHBs he allows just a .196 AVG, .267 wOBA, and .168 ISO. Not exactly a guy you’d want to attack. But against LHBs, the script is flipped, as he allows a massive .321 AVG, .443 wOBA, and .352 ISO. He has a disastrous 3.20 HR/9 Rate against lefties so there would be serious upside in stacking that side of the plate. Lead off man Matt Carpenter (.330 wOBA, .176 ISO) would seem like a pretty safe option to start with. Elsewhere, I’d look to consider Dexter Fowler (.345 wOBA, .133 ISO) and Matt Wieters (.428 wOBA, .306 ISO). These guys are all very affordable on both sites as well and the St. Louis offense has one of the highest projected totals of the day at 5.1 runs.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Freddie Freeman (DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.3k) | 1B | vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

I’ve gone a bit cold on the home run calls trying to keep pace with Joe and Chris but today I’ll roll with a fairly safe option in Freeman who has nine dingers in the last four weeks. Freeman is hammering out a 52.2% Hard Contact Rate over the last two weeks with an average exit velocity of 95.2 mph (top 90%). Overall, against righties, he has a .419 wOBA and .262 ISO this season. Musgrove is able to handle RHBs really well (.253 wOBA, .089 ISO) but is very vulnerable against lefties (.384 wOBA, .236 ISO). Assuming the weather holds up in this game, I’ll say Freddie goes yard for his 16th homer of the season. 💣

Aaron Hicks (DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k) | OF | vs. RHP Trent Thornton

The Yankees don’t have many effective lefty bats at the moment but that’s how you’d want to attack Thornton. Hicks is probably the most talented LHB that can be deployed against Thornton who gives up a .372 wOBA, .269 ISO, and 26.9% HR/FB Rate to that side of the plate. Hicks still hasn’t gotten into a major groove since his return from the IL a few weeks ago but he also hasn’t been bad. He is coming off of a 2 for 4 performance with a home run, a double, and a walk yesterday. He’ll likely land somewhere among the lead off and clean-up spots in the order and should be a solid choice as a one-off hitter in a productive offense.

Hanser Alberto )DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.4k) | 2B/3B | vs. LHP Mike Minor

Mike Minor isn’t really a guy I look to attack any more but getting a lead off hitter for this cheap in an environment like GLP is very tempting. Alberto has been a southpaw hitting specialist this season, as he has posted splits that include a .412 AVG, .426 wOBA, and 165 wRC+, while striking out only 15.9% of the time. Like I said, Minor isn’t a pitcher I would actively look to stack against very often these days. But considering how well Alberto has hit lefties and how cheap his salaries are, I’ll definitely be fine with punting him at second base, which is typically one of the better positions to pay down for.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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