Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

🔊 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney 6/4/19

• 6:35 Pitchers to Consider

• 12:10 Pick of the Night

• 16:00 Contrarian Play of the Night

• 20:15 Game Breakdowns

• 38:00 HR Calls

• 39:25 From A Betting Standpoint

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

We are back from a one day hiatus after forgoing a Monday newsletter for that meager three game main slate. The schedule goes from zero to 100 real quick, with all 30 teams in action for our Tuesday evening menu of match-ups. With plenty of digging to do, let’s grab a shovel and get to work!

Today’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

CIN @ STL: There’s risk of some pop-up storms in the St. Louis area but early indications are that things should work out fine. This is one of those situations where you’ll just need to check the latest forecast closer to game time, as the storms are more “hit or miss” as opposed to blanketing rain. Assuming this one plays, it will be warm, humid, and 10 mph winds blowing out to left. Ideal combo for hitters.

BOS @ KC: Kansas City should manage to avoid any super impactful storm system but there will be rain in the general vicinity of the stadium which we need to keep an eye on. I’m assuming this one plays as well and conditions are nearly identical to St. Louis -- warm, humid, and 10 mph winds blowing out to left. Advantage: hitters.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Chris Paddack (DK: $10k, FD: $9.8k) | RHP | SD vs. PHI

There is a bevy of strong arms available to spend up on tonight with 11 pitchers priced above $9k on DraftKings, and nine above $9k on FanDuel. Paddack may not have the best match-up of the bunch or be the biggest favorite, but his upside is comparable to that of Blake Snell, Hyun-Jin Ryu, or Stephen Strasburg, except you’ll get the Padre ace at a sizable discount. After a couple of disappointing road starts against the Dodgers and Yankees recently, Paddack takes the mound at home where he has been dominant. In five home starts (31.2 IP) he has posted a minuscule 1.42 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 0.60 WHIP, and 34.2% kRate while allowing just a .139 AVG/.177 wOBA. Getting on base against Paddack at Petco Park has been a battle of futility. The Phillies have been a very below average offense when facing a righty on the road: .296 wOBA (24th), .126 ISO (29th), and 81 wRC+ (25th). With Andrew McCutchen suffering a potentially serious leg injury in last night’s game, the Phillies' offense takes a sizable hit at the top of the order. Paddack should make for a nice pivot away from guys like Snell and Strasburg this evening.

Max Fried (DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.6k) | LHP | ATL @ PIT

If Fried can work around Josh Bell and Bryan Reynolds, then there aren’t really any other bats in this order that stand out as major threats to shell a lefty. The Pirates have been one of the worst teams against lefty pitching this season with a .282 wOBA (28th) and, overall, they lack power with a .122 team ISO (28th). Fried hasn’t been a lights out pitcher but, for DFS purposes, he’s been very usable when his salaries are fair. Against a team that doesn’t hit LHPs well, around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP is a solid projection for Fried tonight.

Devin Smeltzer (DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k) | LHP | MIN @ CLE

You have to love this guy’s story as a childhood cancer survivor who made it to the big leagues. In his MLB debut last Tuesday, 53 of his 69 pitches went for strikes and he allowed just three hits to a talented Brewers team, while accumulating seven punch outs over six scoreless innings. It’s far too early to tell if this guy is legit but his recent minor league numbers would indicate that he definitely has the potential to stick around as a quality piece of a professional rotation. Cleveland is a very subpar offense against LHPs (.287 wOBA, .131 ISO, 74 wRC+) and there are several guys that should be in the order tonight with kRates above 28% against lefties (Mercado, Martin, Perez, Bauers). A similar performance to his debut start should not be expected but it also would not be a surprise.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Globe Life Park Notice: By default, the Orioles (4.9 implied runs) and Rangers (5.6 implied runs) make for quality teams to stack given the positive hitting environment at GLP. No Coors Field to worry about today though!

Boston Red Sox vs. Glenn Sparkman (RHP | KC)

Well, the Sparkman experiment didn’t really work out for his previous start, as he lasted only one inning against the White Sox, allowing four runs on 24 pitches. Facing the Red Sox shouldn’t be an easier task by any means. If Sparkman doesn’t make it too deep into this game, then expect the Royals to have to rely on their below average bullpen (4.29 SIERA, 1.47 WHIP) to handle extended innings. Boston has a couple of sluggers who have incredible numbers against RHPs over the last month: Xander Bogaerts (.442 wOBA, .253 ISO, 1.055 OPS) and Rafael Devers (.428 wOBA, .306 ISO, 1.041 OPS). For a cheaper option, I think we could look towards Jackie Bradley Jr. (.366 wOBA, .286 ISO) who has finally started to heat up in recent weeks. Remember that this is one of the games to monitor for weather concerns but, if threatening storms avoid the area, the conditions are great for the bats in this one.

Washington Nationals vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP | CWS)

Not only has Lopez been pitching really poorly lately but the White Sox are letting him go pretty deep into his pitch count regardless of how much he is getting tagged up. With a 1.64 WHIP, Lopez is letting a ton of runners on base and his combination of 39% Hard Contact allowed with a slate-high 51.2% Fly Ball Rate could spell danger against the Nat’s stronger fly ball sluggers. It’s difficult not to like Anthony Rendon (.433 wOBA, .303 ISO, 51.5% Hard Contact, 52.5% FB Rate) and his chances of going yard tonight. Elsewhere, Juan Soto (.384 wOBA, .230 ISO) has been seeing the ball really well lately and Matt Adams (.312 wOBA, .241 ISO) is a cheaper piece of this team that carries some home run potential.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Frankie Montas (RHP | OAK)

The Angels are often a great team to stack, specifically for GPPs, due to how quickly their offense can take over a game and string together runs. This is evident by the Angels putting up at least nine runs in three of their last six games. Montas had his last start against this same Angels team and surrendered four runs while issuing five walks across just four innings of work. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Angels get to him early on again. Aside from Mike Trout, I’d look towards newcomer Cesar Puello (.527 wOBA, .231 ISO vs. RHP -- limited at-bats), Tommy La Stella (.393 wOBA, .261 ISO), and David Fletcher (.387 wOBA, .406 OBP). All of these guys are very affordable, particularly on DraftKings.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Renato Nunez (DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k) | 1B(DK)/3B(FD) | vs. LHP Drew Smyly

Few guys in the league are swinging a hotter bat than Nunez. Since May 20th (13 games), Nunez is hitting for a .383 AVG, .568 wOBA, .596 ISO, and has delivered eight home runs out of the park. Some of these numbers may have been aided by positive hitting environments but he’ll get another crack at a great park for offense when he steps onto the field at Globe Life Park. Drew Smyly is allowing a slate-high 55.9% Hard Contact paired with a 47.5% Fly Ball Rate. Considering Nunez has hit for 66.7% Hard Contact in the last two weeks, he could be responsible for putting a frown on Smyly’s face early on in this one. I think Nunez goes yard once again tonight. 💣

Yandy Diaz (DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k) | 1B/3B | vs. LHP Ryan Carpenter

This will only be Yandy Diaz’s second game back after returning from the IL with a hand injury, so expect him to go overlooked on a huge slate like this one. Before he sustained his injury, he was in a bit of a funk, but I’m looking to trust his ability to smash a weaker southpaw pitcher. Against lefties this season, Diaz has a .423 wOBA and .340 ISO while connecting on an elite 56.3% Hard Contact. Carpenter has allowed six home runs in just 19 innings this season (2.84 HR/9) and gives up plenty of hard contact to hitters. Expect Diaz to hit, at worst, fourth in the order and see at least two at-bats against Carpenter.

Ronald Guzman (DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k) | 1B | vs. RHP Dylan Bundy

I’m unintentionally landing on a bunch of infielders that I like as one-off’s, so forgive me! Guzman is often under-priced and overlooked simply due to being stuck in the back of the Rangers order. Typically, he is pretty usable in all formats, especially when playing in GLP and facing a low-caliber pitcher like Dylan Bundy. In his last 20 games against RHPs (49 plate appearances), Guzman has a solid .631 wOBA+ISO and has connected on a trio of home runs. He also has a 50% Hard Contact Rate over the last two weeks. Bundy has done a good job at limiting his Hard Contact Rate allowed to batters to 25.9% this season but he still has a poor 17.8% HR/FB Rate. We all know that the ball has a little extra ‘pop’ out in Arlington, so Guzman is a pretty decent bet to have a productive day in an offense that is projected to score upwards of six runs.

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or your choice of LineStar T-Shirt

Congrats to Wednesday's winner: Dobarnes99 - 180.85 points!

DM LineStar on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍 or 👎!