By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Happy Friday, folks! We’re running the gauntlet today with all 30 MLB teams in action on this evening’s main slate with no significant chance for any weather-related postponements. As is the case with basically all of these mammoth slates, you can go about a billion different ways when crafting your plan of attack and it’s shaping up like a fun GPP-centric day. Let’s keep it short and sweet here and dive right into some plays!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

BOS @ NYY: Low chance of a late start here as rain could still be clearing the area around the first pitch, but once they get going there should be no further issues.

MIN @ KC: 80-85 degree temperatures with winds blowing OUT to LF. Decent little bump to bats.

OAK @ COL: High 80s at Coors Field to start off the game. Decent starting pitchers taking the mound in this match-up but hitters should definitely have the upper-hand.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP) | DK: $10.4k, FD: $8.7k | vs. ARI

For cash games, I believe either Peralta or Zack Wheeler ($10.7k/$11.5k) are the first two guys you look to consider at pitch tonight. If I have to take one, I’m leaning Peralta especially over on FanDuel where he’s about $1k-$1.5k too cheap. Peralta has put up some huge fantasy games this season and he leads the slate with a 37.2% kRate and his 15.2% SwStr% trails only Max Scherzer (16.5%). He’s particularly effective when taking the mound at home. In 32.0 IP at Miller Park (I know that’s not the official name anymore but I don’t care), Peralta is 3-0 with a 1.41 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 37.7% kRate, 0.69 WHIP, .102 AVG, and he has stranded 96.2% of base runners. The only thing I don’t like about this match-up with a very erratic D-Backs offense is the fact that they have plenty of lefty hitters to deploy. Peralta’s kRate versus LHBs is 29.1% versus a 45.1% kRate against RHBs and Arizona probably has at least six lefty/switch hitters in their starting lineup. However, Arizona has just a 73 wRC+ against RHPs when playing on the road this season (ranks 28th) so we should fully expect another great game out of Peralta here. Also, Peralta turns 25 today so ya have some #BirthdayNarrative going here.

Blake Snell (LHP) | DK: $9.2k, FD: $7.9k | vs. NYM

At this point, between the control issues (14.2% BB%) and his struggles to pitch more than five innings (6.0 IP in just one start this season), Blake Snell can clearly no longer be considered a “safe play.” However, let’s take a look at his home/road splits this season:

Home: 25.1 IP, 2.10 ERA, 2.56 xFIP, 36.7% kRate, 11.0% BB%, 1.17 WHIP, 1.05 HR/9, .186 AVG, .274 wOBA, 22.4 DKFPPG/37.8 FDFPPG

Away: 21.1 IP, 9.70 ERA, 4.84 xFIP, 27.5% kRate, 17.4% BB%, 2.11 WHIP, 2.11 HR/9, .292 AVG, .409 wOBA, 5.7 DKFPPG/14.2 FDFPPG

To say Snell has been better at home is a massive understatement. He is, of course, taking the mound at home in Petco Park tonight against a banged up Mets offense (though, they are running a little hot lately). I understand any and all hesitation towards rostering him in DFS, but this could be a chance to get him at low ownership and MAYBE he can finally get a game where he pitches into the later innings and racks up nine or ten Ks.

Cody Poteet (RHP) | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.9k | @ PIT

I’m looking at Poteet as nothing more than a GPP punt play who should have a decent chance to hit that 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold that we hope for out of our cheap arms. Through 21.1 IP in his rookie campaign, Poteet has posted some decent numbers: 2.95 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 23.2% kRate, 12.0% SwStr%, 4.9% BB%. He’s also allowing a slate low 14.0% Line Drive%. His 4.26 xFIP isn’t great and tells us he is due for some regression. Perhaps it won’t come just yet as he goes up against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates whose 82 wRC+ and .288 wOBA vs. RHPs ranks 28th in the league this season (though they do now have future all-star Ke’Bryan Hayes back in action).

DK Only: Shohei Ohtani (RHP) | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.5k | vs. SEA

I really don’t think I’d pay the FanDuel price for him but Ohtani’s K potential (32.5% kRate) keeps him in as an option on DraftKings, especially against a fairly strikeout-prone Mariners team that is hitting just .210 against RHPs. The 16.9% Walk Rate is still a massive concern, but that is the risk ya take by rolling with Ohtani. For some reason, DraftKings decided to price Ohtani $1,400+ cheaper than both Coors Field pitchers… makes sense.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ I’d almost say it’d be a good day to fade Coors but those near-90 degree temps at first pitch are going to make fly balls travel a bit further than they already do in that thin high altitude air. The Athletics, in particular, are firmly in play and the Rockies can do their thing at home too. Ownership should be spread out quite a bit among the remaining teams today.

Kansas City Royals vs. Matt Shoemaker (RHP), MIN

These Royal bats are hot, hot, hot and they draw another low-quality opposing starting pitcher so we might as well go back here once again. Over the last week, Kansas City is hitting .316 as a team with a .364 wOBA and 134 wRC+. Matt Shoemaker comes in with a slate-worst 5.06 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, and is striking out just 14.7% of batters. That Twins bullpen is not doing themselves any favors either and their 17.1% HR/FB Rate is tied for the highest in the Majors. Similar to yesterday, this may be a good game to load up on for both sides as the Twins get their shot at Brad Keller and an average Royals bullpen. Also, remember temperatures will be about 85 degrees at first pitch with 10 mph winds blowing out to left field.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Matt Peacock (RHP), ARI

I’m hoping it’s going to be a bad day for MLB pitchers named “Matt.” After working mostly out of the bullpen this season, Peacock will be making his fourth start of the year. While he hasn’t been atrocious, he hasn’t been overly effective either. His 23.8% HR/FB Rate is the highest among today’s starting pitchers and he’s allowing a massive 49.4% HardHit%. He’ll be supported by a bottom five D-Backs bullpen which has a poor 4.46 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, and a league-low 20.9% kRate. There are four or five Brewer bats that could come through nicely today.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), CIN

I don’t really think the Cards bats are all that “sneaky” but, on a full 15-game slate with Coors Field in play, I do believe they’ll still go fairly low-owned. Castillo has an 8.74 ERA on the road this season with a 1.81 WHIP, .337 AVG, .408 wOBA, 1.99 HR/9 Rate, and a lowly 16.5% kRate. This game also features a couple of really bad bullpens and Cincinnati’s 5.71 bullpen ERA is the highest in the league.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

JRam should get at least a couple cracks at an inexperienced lefty at the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Ramirez hasn’t been extremely effective against LHPs this season but looking at his last 150 games against lefties, he’s batting .301 with a .739 wOBA+ISO and 168 wRC+. In 12 career games at Camden Yards, he’s batting .313 with a .763 wOBA+ISO with eight XBH (three 2B, two 3B, three HR) and a 174 wRC+. He’s setting up as a strong one-off spend-up option here.

1B Jared Walsh | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Robert Duggar (RHP), SEA

Duggar may not pitch very deep into this game but if Walsh happens to get a couple of at-bats against him, I like his chances of hitting an XBH, perhaps a homer. Duggar has faced 132 LHBs in his career and has a horrid 7.65 xFIP and 10.6% kRate while allowing a .345 AVG, .449 wOBA, 2.19 HR/9. Walsh has gone deep twice in the last four games and Angel Stadium has been a great home run park for lefty hitters.

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Michael King (RHP), NYY

Verdugo will continue to bat second in the order and is just a nice, cheap hitter to target for a Red Sox team with a high 4.8 implied run total on the day. He’s batting just a shade under .300 against RHPs over his last 150 games. He boasts a strong 155 wRC+ against RHPs over the last 20 games with a trio of home runs and Verdugo will also get the green light to occasionally steal a bag here and there. He won’t need to do too much to return value at these salaries.

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Michael Kings (RHP), NYY

OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), CIN

OF Harold Ramirez | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

1B Mitch Moreland | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), COL

1B/C Tyler Stephenson | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kwang Hyun Kim (LHP), STL

OF DJ Stewart | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.2k | vs. JC Mejia (RHP), CLE

OF AJ Pollock | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Matt Olson | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), COL

I haven’t got on the board yet this week so I’m taking some low-hanging fruit with Matt Olson at Coors Field. Olson’s 95.7 mph average exit velocity against RHPs over the last two weeks puts him in the 95th percentile among hitters and he’s rocking a .362 ISO and four HRs against righties in the last 20 games. If he gets under one, it’s likely sailing out of Coors Field with ease given those 80-90 degree temperatures in play out in Colorado.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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