Top MLB DFS Plays 6/30 | A Soggy Wednesday Threatens Several Games

June 30, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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We close out the month of June with a bit of an odd nine-game slate. The odd thing with this slate is just how much rain is threatening nearly all of this evening’s outdoor games. With the exception of Oakland, every other outdoor game has at least some sort of chance of seeing some wet weather. When it’s all said and done, *most* games will likely play nine innings tonight but yesterday was a poignant reminder of how finicky (and downright bad) MLB organizations can be with making weather-based decisions. The Tigers @ Indians game yesterday was delayed and eventually postponed despite the fact that they had nearly a three hour window of dry weather (with only a few raindrops that came in late) where they could have gotten that game in. So, I say all this to just remind everyone to exercise caution, on this slate in particular! It’s a risky one, for sure, with the exceptions of a few games.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

The entire intro was dedicated to expressing just how ‘touch and go’ many of these games will be weather-wise. I urge anyone playing DFS tonight to keep an eye on the forecasts if you’re rostering guys from at-risk games... which there is a lot of 'em. I’m positive plenty of info will be shared in chat (from actual meteorological sources) leading up to lock as well.

MIA @ PHI (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): A mid or late inning delay becomes a possibility as pop-up storms could be in the area an hour or two after the first pitch. There’s a good chance they avoid trouble altogether. Assuming they play without issue, there are really solid hitting weather here with 90-95 degree temps all game & 10 mph winds blowing OUT to right/center.

LAA @ NYY (7:05 ET, 10 O/U): Like Philly, this is one of the lower-risk games but a delay is not out of the question as pop-up showers show up in the area, but likely towards the later innings. More good hitting weather here with temps in the low 90s to start the game and winds blowing OUT to center at 10 mph.

SEA @ TOR (7:07 ET, 10.5 O/U): There’s a pretty good shot that any rain is out of the area by the first pitch but whatever hangs around should be light enough to play through. Good hitter’s park but cool-ish 70-degree temperatures and winds blowing IN from right at 10+ mph will negate a bit of the offensive upside. Still gotta love the Blue Jays when they’re at home though.

KC @ BOS (7:10 ET, 11 O/U): This is where things could start to get dicey. Rain chances increase right around the first pitch so there could be a notable chance for a late start. There’s plenty of reason for optimism that they’ll eventually get this game in, but it really just comes down to what the forecast looks like closer to game time and how long the rain lingers (and how heavy that rainfall actually is).

SD @ CIN (7:10 ET, 10 O/U): More concern in Cincy as slower-moving storms move through this evening. A “delay and play” is a possible scenario. It all depends on whether or not they can avoid a heavy downpour moving over the ballpark at any point & if things clear upstream to leave an open window later in the evening for them to play nine innings.

NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U): Some lingering scattered storms could hang around the Atlanta area this evening. Coverage shouldn’t be too high, so the ballpark may avoid trouble altogether. Not 100% safe though.

MIN @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): We can finally wrap up with Chicago where a passing storm could run over the ballpark but even if they require a delay, the forecast looks relatively clear later on. Still, you can't fully trust teams when they begin in a delay as we saw yesterday.

Note: For now, I am keeping all teams within consideration until more clarity is given on these forecasts closer to lock.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Aaron Nola (RHP) | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11k | vs. MIA

We haven’t seen the most consistency out of Nola this season but the fact that he’s at home, where he has shown markedly better results while facing a struggling Miami offense makes him an appealing spend up option. Here are his home/away splits on the year:

Home: 43.1 IP, 2.49 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 31.8% kRate, 1.02 WHIP, .265 opp wOBA

Away: 47.1 IP, 5.32 ERA, 3.88 xFIP, 25.2% kRate, 1.33 WHIP, .346 opp wOBA

So that’s a pretty equal sample size on both ends and he’s basically posting the ace-level numbers we’re accustomed to seeing out of him when he’s taking the mound in his home ballpark. While this game does possess some good hitting weather, it’s also one of the games with less delay/PPD risk so we should look to get a solid outing from Nola. Miami has been a bottom 10 offense against RHPs all season and over the last two weeks, their 71 wRC+ (vs. RHPs) ranks 26th in the league. They offer up a fair amount of strikeouts and in 106 PA vs. Nola, the current Marlins roster is hitting just .220 against him with a .250 wOBA and 27.4% kRate. Only the Astros (-300) are heavier favorites than the Phillies (-250) on this slate.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP) | DK; $8.7k, FD: $9.5k | @ NYY

Starting pitcher and current MLB HR leader Shohei Ohtani will take the mound at Yankee Stadium with a slate best 33.1% kRate along with a strong 14.3% SwStr%. Depending on which version of the 2021 Yankees shows up tonight, this could be another great spot for Ohtani to sniff double-digit strikeouts and flirt with 25 DKFP/45 FDFP upside. Pitch count is always a mystery with him, but he is coming off of a season-high 105 pitch performance in his last outing (vs. SF). After having a lot of trouble with walks, Ohtani has shown improved plate control as of late and only has issued five walks over his last four starts (23.0 IP). While they have been better in recent weeks in general, on the season the Yankees have been a fairly league average offense against RHPs with a 99 wRC+ (ranks 14th) and a moderately high 25.0% kRate (9th highest). He’ll be more of a GPP target, especially with that warm weather and 10 mph winds blowing out to center field in New York tonight. But there’s also a nice window of opportunity for Ohtani to get six innings of work in and push for 8-10 Ks.

Bailey Ober (RHP) | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.3k | vs. CWS

The value pitching options on this slate are quite uninspiring and all of the potential weather issues certainly do not help. You don’t really need to go here on FanDuel, but if you’re loading up on big bats and need some salary relief with your SP2 on DraftKings, Ober makes some sense as a GPP flier. Ober has only pitched 21.1 innings this season, so the sample size isn’t all that big, but he does bring a respectable 25.6% kRate to the table along with a slate-low 4.4% walk rate and fairly league average 1.31 WHIP. He’s been terrific against RHBs (.190 wOBA, .114 ISO, 28.3% kRate) but awful against LHBs (.530 wOBA, .333 ISO, 20.9% kRate). In response, the White Sox are probably going to roll out at least five lefty/switch hitters in their lineup tonight. Those poor LHB splits for Ober have come from a small 43 total LHB faced sample size, so if he can show some improvement there and just manage to get through those lefty hitters with only moderate damage allowed, I could see him turning in five decent innings with six, maybe seven, strikeouts and touch 20 DKFP territory. The White Sox haven’t been anything special against RHPs lately, checking in with an 82 wRC+ in the last two weeks (ranks 24th) along with a 27.7% kRate (2nd highest). 

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  The Toronto Blue Jays will come in as a super enticing stack today at home, even in less-than-ideal weather conditions. Considering they’ll be totally safe from all the rain issues, the Houston Astros against Matt Harvey are in a terrific spot as well. I expect these two teams to have the highest stack ownership on the slate but they carry a good deal of safety.

San Diego Padres vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

Remember that this is currently one of the more at-risk games this evening, but if the forecast looks like it will cooperate, the Padres are in another solid spot in the current #1 hitter’s park. Gutierrez has put up a respectable 3.97 ERA in his rookie campaign but that is delicately supported by a slate-worst 5.43 xFIP. While his 1.32 HR/9 Rate is not all that high, it could be due to rise considering he has given up a 45.1% Fly Ball Rate and a 7.4% Barrel%. Once Gutierrez is retired from the mound, San Diego will see a very erratic Reds bullpen come in to finish the remainder of the game. As long as they’re able to play, I really like the core San Diego bats once again.

Kansas City Royals vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

This is more of a GPP stack since Kansas City isn’t particularly good against lefties, but Martin Perez also isn’t particularly good himself! Perez has actually had some really poor performances at home this season where, across 36.0 IP, he has posted a 6.00 ERA, 4.83 xFIP, 1.83 WHIP, and allowed a .320 opp AVG, .394 opp wOBA. In 117 PA, the current Royals offense is hitting .327 against Perez with a .379 wOBA and just a 12.0% kRate. This will be the Royals sixth game at Fenway Park this year and they have plated at least five runs in four of their five previous appearances in BoSox territory. Whit Merrifield in particular has crushed in Fenway this season and he’d be the top priority if you go after this stack. Carlos Santana, Ryan O’Hearn, and Sal Perez would be other KC options to prioritize. As long as the worst of the rain holds off, there could be plenty of runs scored in this game which carries the highest total on the slate (11 O/U).

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

The Mariners actually haven’t been too bad against lefties, so long as they face them on the road. In away games against LHPs, Seattle’s 96 wRC+ would put them dead smack in the middle of the league, ranking 15th. If you trim that down to their performance over the last two weeks (against LHPs on the road), they’ve accrued a 106 wRC+, which ranks 9th in that span. Steven Matz hasn’t started a game since June 12th (illness) and will reportedly be on some sort of pitch count -- my guess is around 60-70 pitches. But he has struggled at home this season (5.76 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, .333 opp AVG, .408 opp wOBA, 18.5% kRate) and will be backed up by a mediocre Blue Jays bullpen. Ty France would be the top bat to target here followed by Luis Torrens, Mitch Haniger, and JP Crawford.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Justus Sheffield (LHP), SEA

2B/OF Whit Merrifield | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

1B/2B Jake Cronenworth | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

C Yasmani Grandal | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

1B Jared Walsh | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

2B/OF Enrique Hernandez | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), KC

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/2B/3B Ty France | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

1B Ryan O’Hearn | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

2B/SS David Fletcher | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

OF Myles Straw | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

C Zack Collins | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

C Luis Torrens | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Justus Sheffield (LHP), SEA

I was aiming to go a little contrarian today then I realized how many weather issues there were so I decided to roll with a sorta ‘chalky’ home run pick in a game that should be fairly safe from rain. It’s only a 21 PA sample size, but over the last 20 games against lefties, Bichette is absolutely raking with a .611 AVG, .673 wOBA, and .333 ISO. He’s racking up a ton of XBHs this year and has been super effective when playing at home. Sheffield has given up a .385 wOBA, .220 ISO, and 1.93 HR/9 against RHBs this season and those numbers have risen even more when he faces righty bats on the road. Vlad Jr. is of course the best bet to go yard in this game but I’d slot Bichette in as a pretty close second, perhaps tied with Teoscar Hernandez. All three guys are serious home run threats today.

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