Top MLB DFS Plays 6/3 | Thursdays are for Thriving! 💰

June 03, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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We’ll have another eight-game main slate at hand for this fine Thursday evening. The slate may not be filled to the brim with aces but there are quite a few favorable pitcher’s parks and quality bullpens in play, so landing on the correct offenses may be trickier than usual today. Weather will also be putting one game in particular (MIA @ PIT) in jeopardy, so don’t be surprised if this one gets slimmed down to a seven-gamer. Alright, let’s dive in and see what we can cook up today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

MIA @ PIT: As mentioned in the intro, this is the one game to really keep an eye on. Currently, there is a storm system forecasted to be around the ballpark both before, during, and a while after this game is scheduled. Unless the radar changes closer to lock (which is possible), a lengthy delay or postponement is definitely on the table here. For the sake of this newsletter, I’ll currently refrain from mentioning any player from this particular game but do keep in mind that it could end up playing without much issue.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Lance Lynn (RHP) | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11k | vs. DET

Lance Lynn and Yu Darvish (DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.5k) are, in my mind, the only certified “elite” arms on the slate. In cash lineup builds, I think you start there with one of these guys and perhaps you can even fit both in on DraftKings if you find some cheap bats you’re comfortable with. If you’re going with one or the other, I lean slightly towards Lynn, largely due to the salary savings. Darvish has a bit more K upside (30.8% kRate vs. 25.9% kRate for Lynn). However, at home this season Lynn holds a very comparable 29.7% kRate and has averaged 27.7 DKFP/44.5 FDFP across six starts (5-1 record). Additionally, Lynn’s opponent, Detroit, provides a bit more K potential as they have struck out 27.0% of the time versus RHPs this season -- compare that to a 23.0% kRate for the Mets (Darvish’s opponent). Both will be popular tonight in terms of DFS ownership and they will also be taking the mound for the two current heaviest betting favorites (CWS -210, SD -175). Neither guy needs much introduction, but they’re pretty clearly the top two options on the docket if you’re going the “spend up” route at pitcher.

Casey Mize (RHP) | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.2k | @ CWS

He’ll be more of a GPP option, but why not look towards Lynn’s counterpart today and see if this game turns into a bit of a pitcher’s duel? Vegas is currently pinning a low 7.5 over/under on this game with the White Sox carrying a fairly modest 4.3 implied run total. Also, Mize has just straight up been in a nice groove for a hot minute. Over his last six starts (37.0 IP) going back to 4/29, Mize is rocking a 2.19 ERA, 3.91 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 23.1% kRate with opponents batting just .168 AVG/.236 wOBA and a low 28.6% HardHit% in that span. The White Sox won’t be an easy foe to shut down but Mize began that aforementioned prosperous six-start streak against Chicago where he acquired a respectful 18 DKFP/31 FDFP across six innings of work. He’s shown a touch more upside since then and should land on the radar for tournaments today.

Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP) | DK: $5k, FD: $6k | @ STL

Straight up a GPP only punt play here, and likely only as an SP2 candidate for DraftKings players (unless you’re feeling super bold over on FanDuel). Gutierrez will be looking to make his second career MLB start but he did come away with a fairly effective outing in his big league debut last Friday. Against the Cubs on 5/28, Gutierrez needed just 67 pitches to eat up five complete innings in which he allowed just four total base runners (2 H, 2 BB) and one earned run while striking out three (meh). Gutierrez’s minor league stats aren’t all that impressive and he’s been stuck in the Reds farm system for quite a while (and did get popped for PEDs in 2019 which led to a lengthy suspension). However, he does have an elusive curveball and a decent fastball that usually sits in the mid-90s. He’s getting a shot in The Show while Cincinnati supposedly gives struggling starter Luis Castillo a little extra time off to… mentally reset? Whatever the reason may be, we can hope for some sneaky out-of-nowhere 4x value out of Gutierrez if he can manage to get to around an 80 pitch count tonight. He’ll be taking the mound in the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium against a Cardinals team that has an 87 wRC+ versus RHPs this season (ranks 21st) -- 74 wRC+ over the last two weeks (ranks 27th).

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ I don’t have a ton of conviction on both of these teams (mainly Milwaukee), but the Royals and Brewers are in two of the better spots to succeed today.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Justus Sheffield (LHP), SEA

The Angels obviously aren’t at 100% strength on offense but you can say that about pretty much every team in the league at this point in the season (though, not everyone can say they’re missing a player of Mike Trout’s caliber). I’m on board with these Angel bats regardless as they take on Justus Sheffield. The Mariner lefty is not a terrible starting pitcher by any stretch, but he has shown some poor splits on the road where he has posted a 6.75 ERA this season along with a 1.88 WHIP, .356 opp AVG, and a .393 wOBA while producing just a 17.0% kRate. Overall, the Angels have been super average against LHPs and their 100 wRC+ against lefties on the season illustrates that. However, when you look at their splits against LHPs when playing at home, they’re significantly better and boast a league-best 138 wRC+. Angel Stadium ranks 2nd in both adjusted run factor and adjusted home run factor this season, so there could be a nice scoring atmosphere in play here tonight.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

I usually prefer to target the D-Backs when they’re at home where they average 5.07 runs/gm (vs. 3.80 runs/gm on the road)… but I just don’t think that highly of Brett Anderson so, uh, that’s that. Arizona is also a top 10 offense against LHPs (.333 wOBA - ranks 8th, 110 wRC+ - ranks 9th) and they maintain similar production against LHPs even when they play on the road. A now healthy Ketel Marte who is swinging a hot bat (and is also a favorite ‘one-off’ bat of mine) towards the top of the lineup absolutely helps their offensive production out quite a bit as well. Anderson possesses a slate-worst opponent .426 expected wOBA this season. His 92.6 mph [opponent] average exit velocity, 50.5% HardHit%, and 11.9% Barrel% are also all the worst marks among today’s starting pitchers. If the Diamondbacks can knock him around early, Anderson will be supported by a pretty average group of Brew Crew relievers.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Cincinnati Reds vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

The 2021 version of Adam Wainwright is still a solid MLB starting pitcher. However, the 39-year-old now falls into that sort of ‘limbo’ category where he’s not really good enough to be viewed as “match-up proof” but he *is* respected enough to where most people will shy away from stacking opposing offenses against him in DFS… even if they’re a quality offense like Cincinnati. With that said, I expect sub-10% ownership on pretty much every Reds hitter. However, Cincy ranks 2nd in baseball versus RHPs with a .254 batting average and they lead the league with a .280 AVG vs. RHPs when they have runners in scoring position. If the Reds get to Wainwright early (as they did in his season debut which lasted just 2.2 innings after he surrendered six earned runs) then they’re looking at getting some extra at-bats against a really bad Cardinals bullpen, which ranks dead last in the MLB with a 4.96 xFIP.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

1B/OF/3B Kris Bryant | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), SF

Oracle Park is not an ideal hitter’s park to be targeting a pricey one-off bat-like Bryant. Though, Bryant has had no major issues producing hits and runs out in San Francisco. In 13 career games at Oracle Park, Bryant is hitting .358 with a .453 wOBA, .302 ISO, and 186 wRC+. In 23 career at-bats against DeSclafani, Bryant is hitting .348 with a pair of home runs and he’s also just been really solid as of late. He’ll make for a likely under-the-radar premium one-off play tonight.

1B Carlos Santana | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

I really like a few of these Royals bats on this slate, so it’s tough to pick just one to hone in on. But, by all indications, this could be a strong spot for Santana to break loose for a big game. He’s hitting .429 with a 228 wRC+ vs. LHPs over his last 20 games -- .296 with a 141 wRC+ over his last 150 games (vs. LHPs). Not to mention, if you ‘believe’ in BvP, he has posted a .600 AVG against Happ in 12 PA. Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City has also been a really solid park for hitters and ranks 4th in adjusted run factor this season.

OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

It was only a matter of time before Carlson started showing off that power he put on display at the start of the season. He enters today with HRs in three of his last four. Perhaps we should only hunt for his big games out of Carlson when he’s on the road since all six of his 2021 homers have come outside of Busch Stadium. But he remains quite affordable on both DFS sites so that still keeps him in consideration. I wrote Gutierrez up above as a contrarian punt play, but he could easily get rocked by some hitters at the top of the Cardinals order and it would surprise no one.

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Tyler Naquin | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

OF Alex Dickerson | DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

OF Kyle Garlick | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Josh Reddick | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

OF Trevor Larnach | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

Canning has struggled this season when it has come to give up power to righty hitters. In 23.2 innings against RHBs, he’s allowed eight home runs which equates to a massive 3.04 HR/9 Rate. Haniger is the only Mariner right-handed hitter in the projected lineup who has found any remote semblance of success in reverse split scenarios. In 159 at-bats against RHPs, Haniger has hit nine home runs out this season alongside a solid .252 ISO. Angels Stadium has rated out as the 3rd best park for RHB home runs, so let’s see if Haniger can muscle one out this evening.

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