By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

TGIF, baby! It’s a loaded day of baseball with all 30 teams taking the field today. 24 of those teams will be locked in on this evening’s 12-game main slate. The pitching pool is loaded up top today but there are also some decent mid-range options as well as a few guys worthy of a shot (in GPPs) down in the value tier. Coors Field is back on the docket with the Braves out in the Rockies and there are about a half-dozen offenses that are in more obviously good spots. There are always some dark horse offenses that could pop off as well. One final quick note: by what may be nothing short of a small miracle, there are zero weather concerns across the board! It’s gonna be an eventful night of baseball so let’s dive right in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There are no weather issues to worry about today and there aren’t many notable temperature/wind conditions to speak of either. Simply a bunch of mostly neutral weather environments. I’m not complaining, especially on such a big slate!

ATL @ COL (8:40 ET, 11 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to left at around 10 mph at times. Also a bit right to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.2k | vs. CWS

There are five true ace caliber pitchers priced at the top today: Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Joe Musgrove, and Shane McClanahan. In many ways, it’d be splitting hairs trying to say one of those guys would be a better option than one of the others. Gerrit Cole facing Detroit at home as an enormous -330 favorite does stand out as the ‘safest’ option and should likely be a priority, particularly in cash games.

But we arrive here at Shane McClanahan who has been as dominant as any pitcher in baseball this season. Out of ten starts (58.1 IP) in 2022, he has yet to have a truly poor outing. He leads all qualified MLB starters with his numbers in the following categories: 36.3% kRate, 1.83 xFIP, and 2.07 SIERA. While the White Sox have had their share of offensive struggles this season, they’ve been great against lefties -- their 122 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 2nd in the MLB. However, they remain without their best hitter in Tim Anderson (groin) and another top hitter, Eloy Jimenez (hamstring) is still on the IL as well. Regardless, the White Sox will be rolling out a very righty-heavy lineup. Fortunately, McClanahan has been just as good against RHBs as he has been against LHPs and he has been posting his dominant performances while having faced RHBs 84% of the time. The Rays are heavy -200 home favorites this evening and the White Sox possess only a 3.0 implied run total. McClanahan will be a particularly enticing option on DraftKings where he is the 5th most expensive pitcher on the slate (most expensive pitcher on FanDuel).

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | @ OAK

Eovaldi will no doubt be the most popular mid-range play today and he checks in with a 33% pOwn% on DK, and 21% pOwn% on FD. Given the match-up, his upside is very similar to the pitchers who are priced $1k-$2k above him. He holds a strong 25.1% kRate with a 13.0% Swinging Strike Rate, a 3.13 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and only a 3.8% Walk Rate. The big issue with Eovaldi this season has stemmed from allowing a lot of home runs. The 16 HRs (2.51 HR/9, 25.8% HR/FB Rate) that Eovaldi has given up is already one more than he allowed all of last season… and he has pitched 125 fewer innings up to this point in 2022 than he did in 2021. Fortunately, he faces an Oakland team that has the second-fewest HRs against RHPs this season (24) with only a 7.5% HR/FB Rate (also second-lowest). Oakland Coliseum is one of the more difficult parks to hit home runs in and Eovaldi’s road splits have been considerably better this season than his home splits at the more hitter-friendly Fenway Park. We should expect a nice outing for Eovaldi tonight.

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8k | vs. MIN

After a rocky start to the season, Kikuchi must have channeled The Force back on May 4th (Star Wars Days) because, overall, he’s been pretty sharp ever since that day. In those five most recent games (26.2 IP), Kikuchi has posted a 2.36 ERA, 3.54 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, .177 opp AVG, and a 28.7% kRate. If those trends continue, he’s looking like a tremendous value option today. The Twins are a fairly average offense against southpaw pitching; they check in with a 106 wRC+ vs. LHPs this season, ranking 16th in the MLB. And, over the last two weeks, they’ve begun to struggle against lefties. In 131 PA vs. LHPs in that recent two-week stretch, they’re hitting just .219 with a .256 wOBA, .044 ISO, and an awful 65 wRC+ (ranks last in MLB in that span). The Twins do not strikeout incredibly often, but some good news is that Kikuchi has shown some positive splits at home this season, most notably in the strikeout department. In 19.0 IP at home this season, Kikuchi has posted a 31.2% kRate as opposed to a 19.4% kRate on the road in 22.1 IP. He’s also holding opponents to a .154 AVG at home next to a 1.05 WHIP. Kikuchi has pitched at least five full innings in four of his last five starts and considering the Blue Jays are the second-heaviest favorites of the day at -225, he has an excellent shot at earning a win bonus in this game as well.

Also Consider:

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.9k, FD: $10.8k | vs. DET

Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.7k | @ BAL

Chase Silseth (RHP), LAA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.1k | @ PHI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Max Fried (LHP), ATL

Other Stacks to Consider

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), MIN

The Blue Jay bats have finally started to come alive as of late. Over the last couple of weeks against RHPs, they’re posting a .351 team wOBA (ranks 4th in that span), .204 team ISO (2nd), and a 130 wRC+ (4th) while accounting for a 37.8% HardContact% (2nd). Chi Chi Gonzalez will be making the spot start today in what will be his first MLB appearance since the end of last season. Gonzalez has pitched 261.2 IP in his MLB career. In that time, he has posted a 5.64 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP. His three seasons spent in Colorado with Coors Field as his home ballpark could certainly inflate some of his career numbers, but when we look at his career 5.29 xFIP and 5.51 SIERA, it starts to paint the picture that his poor ERA/WHIP/etc. are not a byproduct of simply pitching a lot of innings at Coors. The Twins bullpen has been good but not elite on the season and it looks like they’ll be shorthanded today. They’ve had some injuries challenge their bullpen depth lately and there are also three core relievers (Trevor Megill, Emilio Pagan, and Caleb Thielbar) who won’t be available today due to being placed on the restricted list -- the presumption is that those three guys are unvaccinated and therefore unable to enter Canada for this series. No matter what your opinion is on that, the advantage goes to the Blue Jays bats.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer | Sneaky Bat: Danny Jansen

Boston Red Sox vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

The Red Sox have had some low-production games recently with three games scoring two runs or fewer within their last five. However, they’re still arguably the hottest offense in the MLB with an overall .384 team wOBA and 152 wRC+ over the last two weeks. They’ve scored anywhere from six runs to 16 runs in nine of their last 14 games. So, while they can go stagnant at times, well… that’s just baseball. They’re out on the west coast in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, so I’m sure there won’t be a ton of folks looking to go here, especially with Coors Field in play on the slate. But they’ll face off with a struggling James Kaprielian who has a 5.93 ERA on the season along with a slate-worst 4.93 xFIP and 4.73 SIERA. It’s not a big sample size, but in 11.2 IP at home this season, Kaprielian has come away with a 7.71 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and has allowed four HRs (3.09 HR/9 Rate). He’s not a big strikeout guy either (17.8% kRate) and Boston is a tough team to strikeout to begin with (20.9% kRate vs. RHPs, 6th lowest). The A’s bullpen has been a bottom 10 relief unit all season and they’ve declined even more recently. In the last 14 days, that A’s bullpen has a 5.70 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, and a 1.50 WHIP. The Red Sox find themselves in a somewhat sneaky-good spot today.

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts | Sneaky Bat: Alex Verdugo

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

Gilbert has been pretty sharp in his second MLB season. He has settled in with an impressive 2.29 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across his 10 starts (59.0 IP). However, as is often the case when finding offenses to highlight in this section, we try to find pitchers who may be due for some regression. Gilbert could be a regression candidate today. His 3.56 xFIP and 3.57 SIERA are not bad but well over a run higher than his ERA. He’s also showing some concerning statcast numbers lately. Over the last month, he’s allowed a lofty 30.9% LineDrive% (league average LD% is about 21%) along with a low 12.3% SoftContact%. Since most line drives fall for hits, Gilbert may be due for a blow-up game if that trend continues. The Rangers also come in swinging some hot bats; over the last week, they rank 3rd in the MLB with a 146 wRC+ and .368 team wOBA. The Mariners bullpen has been trending downward lately as well so the sooner Texas can force Gilbert off the mound, the better.

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Mitch Garver, Kole Calhoun | Sneaky Bat: Josh Smith

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.6k | Bruce Zimemrman (LHP), BAL

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Elvin Rodriguez (RHP), DET

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), MIN

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chase Silseth (RHP), LAA

OF Randy Arozarena | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

2B Brendan Rodgers | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Max Fried (LHP), ATL

OF Andrew Benintendi | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Max Fried (LHP), ATL

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), MIN

OF/3B Miguel Andujar | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Elvin Rodriguez (RHP),DET

2B/OF Tucupita Marcano | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

3B Jace Peterson | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

OF Taylor Trammel | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

3B Josh Smith | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF/SS/3B/2B Orlando Arcia | DK: $2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF George Springer | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), MIN

Chi Chi Gonzalez will be making his first MLB appearance this season and has a career 1.73 HR/9 Rate vs. RHBs throughout his career. You may think “well, he did pitch three seasons with Colorado so Coors Field probably didn’t do him any favors.” But he’s actually given up more HRs on the road, including a 1.86 HR/9 Rate to RHBs. After missing a couple of games due to a non-COVID illness, Springer is back atop the Blue Jays order today. He’s been great against right-handed pitching this season -- .366 wOBA, .243 ISO, 140 wRC+, 18.2% HR/FB Rate, 8 HRs. Behind Chi Chi Gonzalez will be a depleted Minnesota bullpen. The Twins bullpen was already a bit banged up and struggling as of late, but they have now placed three core relievers on the restricted list ahead of this series. The overwhelming presumption is that those guys are unvaccinated and therefore unable to enter Canada to play. As I stated when I highlighted the Blue Jays stack earlier in this article, you may disagree with that vaccination policy, but the fact is that it only bodes well for the Toronto bats. Be on the lookout for another Springer dinger today!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Yusei Kikuchi OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | +100 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units

The Twins have a moderately low 20.7% kRate vs. LHPs this season but there are still some strikeouts to be had within this lineup. The current projected Twins lineup features four guys who have at least a 25% kRate vs. LHPs, including a couple of very strikeout-prone hitters in Gary Sanchez (40.9% kRate) and Byron Buxton (30.2% kRate). Realistically, half of the six strikeouts Kikuchi needs to hit the over on this prop could come from those two guys alone. Kikuchi has been pitching much better over the last month where he has posted a 28.7% kRate. He has hit the over on this prop in four of his last five starts and has been super sharp at home where he has posted a 31.2% kRate this season. The even money odds on Kikuchi racking up at least six Ks in this game represent some solid value.

Max Fried OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | -115 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

If Max Fried was pitching in any other ballpark, these odds on him to rack up over 4.5 Ks would not be close to even money at all like they are today. But that Coors Field effect permeates into the sportsbooks and the odds that they choose to post as well. Fried has a fairly average 22.9% kRate on the season with a strong 12.9% Swinging Strike Rate. However, he has hit the over on this prop in six straight games and has pitched no fewer than 5.1 innings in any of his 10 starts this season (and has eight straight starts with at least 6.0 IP). The Rockies have just a 16.1% kRate vs. LHPs when playing at home in Coors Field, so I certainly understand why Fried’s strikeout line is set at 4.5 O/U. But even if Fried gets into a bit of trouble, the Braves will not be quick to yank him off the mound. I’d look for him to go at least six innings in this game, in which case he should have an excellent chance to amass at least five Ks.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!