By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Lace up the cleats and get ready to run the gauntlet on a full 15-game Tuesday main slate! With temperatures ranging from warm to uncomfortably hot across the country, we saw several offensive onslaughts yesterday (as well as poor Dylan Bundy losing his lunch). Of course, the high run totals were aided by plenty of poor starting pitchers being on the mound yesterday, too. While, overall, there are more quality pitching options available today (to be expected on a full slate), there are still plenty of potential gas cans out there as well. And that warm, humid weather in many of these ballparks isn’t going anywhere either. Eleven of today’s 15 games currently possess an implied total of at least nine runs. A third of the games boast a double-digit total. If memory serves me correctly, that’s the highest amount of 10+ run totals we’ve seen on any slate thus far this season. So… it might get a little crazy tonight so strap in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

High heat with humid conditions is the running theme today. A couple of spots will have some potential rain come into play as well.

TB @ WAS (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Hot & humid w/ 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to CF.

MIA @ PHI (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Hot & Humid w/ 10 mph winds blowing OUT to CF.

LAA @ NYY (7:05 ET, 10 O/U): I repeat… hot & humid w/ 10 mph winds blowing OUT to LF. Slight chance of a passing storm. No major concern.

SEA @ TOR (7:07 ET, 10 O/U): Scattered storms in the area could bring some risk to this game. Be sure to check the forecast here closer to lock. 80 degrees w/ 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from RF… so not as great of hitting weather as other places but it’ll still be fairly humid and this is a good hitter’s park.

KC @ BOS (7:10 ET, 10 O/U): Hot & humid w/ light winds blowing OUT to center/left. Low-end chance of some rain passing through.

SD @ CIN (7:10 ET, 10 O/U): Hot & relatively humid w/ a chance of a brief passing storm.

DET @ CLE (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Not super hot, but still low-80s w/ some humidity. Moderately high (20-30%) chance of rain passing through the area so a delay here is possible, but not overly likely.

MIN @ CWS (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Rain comes in and could hang around for the first stretch of this game. Could see a delay… or they just play through some rain. PPD seems pretty unlikely, but not 0%.

BAL @ HOU (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Roof CLOSED.

ARI @ STL (8:15 ET, 9 O/U): The same storm front stalling directly north around Chicago could cause issues in STL as well. It’ll be mostly scattered showers which may not even make their way over the ballpark, but something to just keep an eye on closer to lock.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Robbie Ray (LHP) | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.8k | vs. SEA

Prefacing this by saying if I’m spending up on a pitcher in cash, I’m likely going for Brandon Woodruff ($11k/$11.4k) pitching indoors against the strikeout-heavy Cubbies. He’ll certainly be super chalky even on a 15-game slate with plenty of big bats to spend up on. I’d view Ray as a high-end GPP pivot. Both Ray and Woodruff boast a slate-leading 31.0% kRate and the Blue Jays and Brewers are also both around -230 favorites. Ray’s 15.4% SwStr% is actually a bit higher than Woodruff's (12.3% SwStr%) and Seattle is not averse to striking out plenty themselves -- vs. LHPs: 27.5% kRate on the season (5th highest), 26.7% kRate over the last month (4th highest). And, it’s worth thinking about the fact that most lefties they face don’t always possess the same strikeout potential as Robbie Ray. A major concern with Ray is his 2.01 HR/9 Rate (2nd highest among today’s SPs) and Sahlen Field does often favor hitters. As mentioned in the weather section, there are those light winds blowing in from right field today and it won’t be overly hot (80 degrees), which deflates some (but not all) of Ray’s home run risk. Ray has a low 1.14 WHIP and 6.3% Walk Rate, so typically any HR he gives up is going to be a solo shot. He’ll certainly bring in some double-digit strikeout potential with upside for a 30 DKFP/50 FDFP outing and I’d expect him to carry roughly around half the ownership of Woodruff.

Charlie Morton (RHP) | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | vs. NYM

Chalky Chucky Morton Day? It’s certainly setting up that way. Morton is currently the most “loved” pitcher on LineStar on both DK and FD, but it’s easy to see why. He’s gone 7.2 IP (112 pitches) and 7.0 IP (107 pitches) deep in his last two starts while racking up 18 total strikeouts, allowing four total hits, and zero earned runs. And his last start came against these same Mets a week ago when he K’d up 11 batters in an absolute gem of a game that earned him 38.8 DKFP/64 FDFP. Aside from one rough outing against Miami, he’s been rock solid over his last seven starts dating back to May 19th: 41.2 IP, 2.38 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, 29.7% kRate, 0.86 WHIP, .166 opp AVG, .228 opp wOBA. The Mets bats are back to riding the struggle bus as of late and have scored two runs or fewer in nine of their last 14 games. Against RHPs in that span (since June 17th), they’re hitting .200 with a .264 wOBA, 27.5% kRate, and 71 wRC+. If Morton is going to push 30+% ownership in GPPs, I’d likely look to pivot elsewhere but for now, he sets up as a very viable mid-range option on this slate, especially in cash.

JC Mejia (RHP) | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.2k | vs. DET

Like @LineStarTyler wrote in the player comments, Mejia is a total Hail Mary play but one with some sneaky strong ‘fantasy point per dollar’ upside. He will likely check in at <5% ownership. Cleveland’s farm system for pitchers has been well-regarded in recent years and Mejia pitched very well at essentially every level in the minor leagues prior to getting called up this season. Through 23.2 IP in his rookie campaign, Mejia has a not-so-glamorous 4.94 ERA, but he has been getting unlucky, evidenced by his 3.59 xFIP and 3.89 SIERA. The big point to make about him here is that his pitch count rose to 96 pitches in his most recent start, so it would seem that Cleveland is ready to give him a typical starter’s workload, so long as he doesn’t struggle early on in games. His 23.7% kRate is basically about league average and will often earn him roughly a strikeout per inning. Mejia also holds a solid 1.18 WHIP and doesn’t allow many fly balls (29.7% FB%). Detroit strikes out quite a bit (25.2% kRate vs. RHPs over the last month) and is a fairly average offense as of late (101 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month). Cleveland is a heavy -190 favorite today and there is a window of opportunity for Mejia to go five or six innings deep today and hit that 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold we look for out of these cheap pitcher plays.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  Honestly, there are so many offenses in excellent spots today that I’d expect ownership to be fairly spread out. Coors Field has its typical appeal but I don’t view either the Rockies or Pirates as “must have” bats. BUT, with that said, the Colorado Rockies would be the preferred option.

San Diego Padres vs. Tony Santillan (RHP), CIN

The Pads get a major park boost today as they travel to Great American ‘Smallpark’ in Cincinnati, which has rated out as the #1 hitter’s park this season, per baseballsavant.mlb.com. They’ll also be seeing Tony Santillan for the second time within two weeks. San Diego hung up an early three runs, including two HRs, against Santillan back on June 18th before he was retired after 3.0 IP and 53 pitches. Looking through his minor league numbers, nothing is overly impressive about Santillan and despite his quality outing against Atlanta last week, his 5.53 xFIP across 13.2 IP sticks out like a sore thumb. Santillan has also shown the tendency to give up a ton of fly balls and plenty of hard contact which is an especially dangerous recipe (for a pitcher) in hot, humid conditions. The now healthy Padres have also been crushing righties lately. Over the last two weeks vs. RHPs, they hold a .267 ISO (ranks 2nd) and a 144 wRC+ (ranks 3rd). The Reds have a terrible bullpen, arguably a bottom three relief unit in the MLB, so after Santillan is off the mound they should still draw some positive match-ups.

Boston Red Sox vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

The Red Sox check in behind the Rockies with the second-highest implied run total of the day (5.8 runs) and I actually don’t believe they’ll be overly chalky (again, big slate and all). What’s not to like about a match-up against Brad Keller and his slate-worst 1.80 WHIP? Keller also has put up a 6.39 ERA this season with a 4.57 xFIP and .386 opp wOBA. He’s been particularly poor against RHBs (6.95 ERA, 5.34 xFIP, .396 wOBA, 14.4% kRate, 1.60 HR/9) which is good news for a Red Sox order that should include at least six righty hitters. Kansas City will back Keller up with a bottom 10 bullpen.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), PHI

There are about a dozen teams that could make this section, but I’ll end up on the Miami Marlins. They’ll be getting a significant park upgrade going from indoors at Marlins Park (#23 hitter’s park in 2021) out to Citizens Bank Park (#11 hitter’s park) where it will be humid and over 90 degrees at first pitch with 10 mph winds blowing out to center field. There’s also nothing intimidating about the match-up with Vince Velasquez either. Vinny V has struggled to pitch more than about four innings lately and he’s put up a lackluster 4.75 xFIP on the season. Also, while BvP can be unreliable and weighted too heavily by some, the Marlins have shown no issues hitting Velasquez: 84 PA, .347 AVG, .389 wOBA. The Phillies have a not bad, but fairly mediocre bullpen to bring in behind VV. I could see a three or four-man Marlins stack work out well in this spot at very low ownership.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

1B Matt Olson | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jameson Tailon (RHP), NYY

1B/2B Jake Cronenworth | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Tony Santillan (RHP), CIN

OF Raimel Tapia | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Chase De Jong (RHP), PIT

SS/OF Amed Rosario | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), DET

2B/OF Enrique Hernandez | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/OF Tony Kemp | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

2B/SS Josh Rojas | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Carlos Martinez (RHP), STL

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Chase De Jong (RHP), PIT

OF Myles Straw | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Travis Lakins Sr. (RHP), BAL

C Jacob Stallings | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

2B/SS David Fletcher | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

OF David Peralta | DK: $2.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Carlos Martinez (RHP), STL

3B Emmanuel Rivera | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Jared Walsh | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

If ya want to get after Jameson Taillon, it’s best done from the left side of the plate. Against LHBs this season, Taillon has allowed a .375 wOBA, .237 ISO, and 2.22 HR/9. Shohei Ohtani is the more obvious guy to go with here, but Walsh makes an incredible amount of sense as well. Versus RHPs, Walsh has been tremendous, hitting .339 with a .452 wOBA, .328 ISO, 43.8% Hard%, and a 190 wRC+. His 94.6 mph average exit velocity vs. RHPs over the last two weeks puts him in the 95th percentile of hitters. And, once again, the hitting conditions will be excellent in Yankee Stadium with hot, humid weather and winds blowing out to left field at 10 mph, which is particularly helpful for the lefty hitters in this game.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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