Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

🔊 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney - Weekend Edition

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The weekend is upon us and we have a lot of baseball set to be played including two games in London between the Yankees and Red Sox. We aren’t going to discuss either of those games since they aren’t part of the main slates today or tomorrow but they could be interesting to watch. Tonight, we have a smaller six game slate. There should be no shortage of offense tonight with one game in Coors Field and a couple of other high powered offenses in good spots. I think one of the big questions right now is can we still pay for Chris Paddack. Both sites have dropped his price, which makes it tempting. But the question is, will he have a long enough leash to return value with the Padres managing his innings? Here are tonight’s games from a Vegas perspective:

As far as the weather is concerned, there is very little to talk about. Two of the six games are indoors and another three games are on the west coast where the weather is generally quiet. Coors is the one place where the weather looks interesting, as the wind seems to be shifting all over the place in the forecast. Keep an eye on that. A 12.5 O/U is not uncommon for Coors, but with Gray and Kershaw on the hill, it’s a little higher than I expected. I’m wondering if those winds will be blowing out at game time.   

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Justin Verlander, HOU | DK: $11.5K, FD: $11.5K | RHP | vs. Seattle

This will be Verlander’s third start against the Mariners this season and he’s basically owned them in the other two meetings. Both of them were on the road. On 4/13 he we six innings, allowing two hits, one earned run, zero walks, and striking out 11. On 6/6 he went 6.1 innings, five hits, three earned runs, with zero walks and seven strikeouts. At the start of the season, the Mariners looked like World Series contenders. In the month of April they had a .343 wOBA, .224 ISO, and a ridiculous 60 home runs.  But their magical month of April ended rather abruptly. They now find themselves in last place with a record of 37-48. Verlander, meanwhile, is being typical Verlander. He has a 3.16 SIERA, 0.75 WHIP, 32.7% strikeouts, and just 5.1% walks. The issue with Verlander is the fly ball rate and home runs allowed. Despite being one of the best pitchers in baseball, he still manages to allow 46.8% fly balls and a 16.9% HR/FB. He’s allowed 21 home runs in 17 starts. But, since Seattle isn’t hitting as many home runs as earlier in the year, this is not much of a concern. Houston, unsurprisingly, is a HEAVY favorite here at -310. 

Zack Greinke, ARI | DK: $9.5K, FD: $9.5K | RHP | @San Francisco

A little obvious I know but you may just need to lock in the points here and not worry about ownership. The Giants are awful, especially against right-handed pitching. They have a .290 wOBA, .161 ISO, and 80 wRC+. There’s not a single person in this lineup that makes me worried and this game is in Oracle Park, which is arguably the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. Greinke is an above average starter that should have no issues getting through this lineup at least a couple of times. On the season, he has a 3.97 SIERA, 0.95 WHIP, 22.4% strikeouts, and 3.6% walks. He’s especially strong against lefties where he has a 3.12 xFIP while forcing 54.5% ground balls and limiting opponents to just a .245 wOBA. The only real knock on him is the strikeout rate, which ideally we’d like to see a little higher when we are paying this much for a pitcher. He has 93 strikeouts in 108 innings resulting in only a 7.75 K/9. So, upside is a bit limited, he should be able to make that up by going deep into this game and minimizing runs allowed. He’s the perfect cash game option today with a really high floor. I prefer the ceiling with Verlander in tournaments despite needing to find an additional $2,000.  

Brandon Woodruff, MIL | DK: $8.1K, FD: $9.1K | RHP | vs. Pittsburgh   

Pretty good size difference between the two main sites in salary on Woodruff. The way he’s pitching right now, I think FanDuel has it right and I’d say he’s a bit under priced on DraftKings which is where my interest will be today. I have a feeling that Chris Paddack will be popular in this price range and I think that’s a mistake. I admit, Paddack’s salary got my attention after seeing him up above $10K for earlier in the season, but the salary drop makes sense when you consider the recent usage. Paddack hasn’t pitched more than five innings now in four straight starts and he was sent down to the minors for a brief stint to help control his innings. As long as San Diego keeps the training wheels on him, he’s unlikely to be worth consideration until we see a larger dip in price. Could he rack up some strikeouts and return value? Sure. But, if he's going to be popular it's not worth the risk and I’ll gladly pivot to Woodruff here who’s coming off a career high 12 strikeouts in an absolute dominant performance his last time out. He has a 3.53 SIERA and a 29.6% strikeout rate. He’s had double-digit strikeouts now in three of his last six starts (one of those against these same Pirates). He has two starts against Pittsburgh already, in fact they were back to back on June 1st and 7th. He got shelled in one of them, allowing 10 hits and six earned runs in just four innings. He bounced back the next start going six innings with four hits and three earned runs and 10 strikeouts. There’s some risk here but also a high reward with the amount of strikeout upside he’s showing.    

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Another Quite Note: I'm not going to talk about Coors. Obviously, with a 12.5 O/U, you'll want bats from that game.

Houston Astros vs. Yusei Kikuchi | LHP | Seattle

The Astros have an implied run total today that rivals the two teams playing in Coors Field later tonight. Not only are they the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching but they are also facing a very weak left-handed opponent. Kikuchi, to put it lightly, is struggling. He has a 5.10 SIERA, 1.45 WHIP and only 17.6% strikeouts. Opposing left-handed hitters have a .345 wOBA and opposing right-handed hitters have a .361 wOBA against him. Altuve tops my list with an absurd 1.275 OPS, .514 wOBA, and .462 ISO against left-handed pitching (he's also very cheap today). Springer (1.024 OPS, .415 wOBA, .362 ISO), Bregman (.367 WOBA, .315 ISO), and Brantley (despite lefty vs lefty) has a .388 WOBA. Chirinos (.354 wOBA, .205 ISO) and Marisnick (.449 wOBA, .314 ISO) have some appeal. Josh Reddick also has solid numbers against lefties, including a .387 wOBA, and .196 ISO. The Astros have an implied total of 6.2 runs.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jordan Lyles | RHP | Pittsburgh

It’s really ironic that Lyles is coming off of the IL to face the Brewers tonight. This is the same Brewers team that knocked him around before his injury. In fact, this will be Lyles third start in a row against Milwaukee but his first since June 8th. He didn’t pitch particularly well in either of those games, going six innings, allowing eight hits and four home runs with only five strikeouts the first time and then getting shelled for five hits and three earned runs his last time out before deciding to go in the injured list. He’s especially bad against lefties where he has a 4.51 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, and 11.9% walk rate. He’s allowing 46.4% fly balls and a .367 wOBA to opposing lefties. Fire up guys like Yelich, Moustakas, Thames, and Grandal who are all lefties (or switch hitters) and have a 44% hard contact rate or better against right-handed pitching this season. It's too bad Travis Shaw got optioned to Triple-A, this would be a good spot for him (but he's been awful this year). Yelich clearly stands out with his 1.229 OPS, .484 wOBA, and .412 ISO. The Brewers have an implied total of 5.7 runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Drew Pomeranz | LHP | San Francisco

The game in Coors Field should help with ownership tonight despite being only a six game slate. A lot of people will have interest in stacking that game given the environment and projected run total. The Astros and Brewers are likely to carry less ownership but have the match ups tonight where they can compete for top offense on this slate. However, if you want to go a little more off the board, look no further than the Arizona Diamondbacks. I’ll start off by saying that I HATE stacking teams in this ballpark. But Arizona is one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching and they are facing a bad lefty tonight. The DBacks have a .358 wOBA, .229 ISO, and 119 wRC+ against lefties this season. Pomeranz carries a 6.79 ERA (a better but still ugly 4.45 SIERA), 1.69 WHIP, and nearly 10% walks into this game. He’s allowing 44.7% hard contact and a .338 wOBA to lefties and 34.9% hard contact and a .405 wOBA to righties. Eduardo Escobar is one of my favorite bats of the night with his .461 wOBA, .343 ISO, and 50% hard contact rate against lefties. Ketel Marte isn’t far behind with a .409 wOBA and .317 ISO. Adam Jones has a .321 wOBA and .202 ISO. Christian Walker has a 46.6% hard contact rate. Nick Ahmed is sneaky (and typically affordable) against lefties with a .385 wOBA and .205 ISO. Last but not least, I really hope Carson Kelly makes the lineup. He has a 1.304 OPS, .518 wOBA, .419 ISO, and 60% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching. I’ll stress again, this ballpark kills runs, but if you’re playing a large field tournament tonight on only a six game slate and you need to go off the board, this could be a great spot to do that.  

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Khris Davis, OAK | DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.4K | OF | vs. Tyler Skaggs (LHP)

This is simply too cheap for Davis. He’s cold right now and he’s also a little banged up (day-to-day, hand) but if he makes the lineup tonight, you have to love this price against a lefty. In his last 20 starts against left-handed pitchers, he only has a .475 wOBA+ISO. But using the larger sample, which is what we care about in baseball, we know that Davis is a lefty masher. Over his last 150 games against lefties, he has a .710 wOBA+ISO. He also has notable BVP against Skaggs with 24 plate appearances, 4 home runs, 8 RBI, and a 1.238 wOBA+ISO.

Eric Thames, MIL | DK: $4.2K, FD: $2.7K | 1B | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP)

We talked about this earlier but the match up is a nightmare for Lyles tonight. He struggles against lefties, he’s already faced the Brewers twice, and he’s in Milwaukee today which is a hitter’s park. Thames is heating up with a .800 wOBA+ISO over his last 20 games against right-handed pitching and an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph in the past two weeks.    

Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $4.1K, FD: $4K | 2B | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP)

I usually save this section for at least a couple of players who are under the radar and not part of the teams in my “stack” section, but I can’t ignore Altuve’s price on DraftKings. He’s obviously missed quite a bit of time this season and he’s a little cold at the moment but he’s still one of the best hitters in the game, especially against lefties. He’s got a .605 wOBA+ISO against lefties over his last 150 games and a .714 wOBA+ISO over his last 20 games. There’s just too much value in his salary today to not mention him whether you use him in a Houston stack or as a one-off to round out your lineup. Ideal cash game play today. 

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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