Today's Top DFS Plays & Prop Bets from your #1 Companion for DraftKings, FanDuel, & Yahoo!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

We’ve got the big boy slate on deck today with all 30 teams in play tonight. That’ll of course make it a massive 15-game slate though, as usual with doubleheaders, FanDuel will not include the second leg of the MIN @ CLE doubleheader on their slate, bringing it down to *only* a 14-game slate there.

This is the second consecutive sick day edition of the MLB newsletter so expect a quick read today. But much like this sickness that is keeping me tied to the couch, the grind is contagious too so let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

We’ve got a clear day across the board! No bad weather is expected at any outdoor ballpark this evening.

CIN @ CHC (8:05 ET, 9 O/U): Warm temps with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to center at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field. Bump to bats.

LAD @ COL (8:40 ET, 11 O/U): Great hitting conditions at the best hitter’s ballpark. Temps in the low 90s at first pitch with light winds blowing OUT.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), SF | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.6k | vs. DET

Rodon sets up as the go-to stud pitcher on this slate. He enters this game having scored at least 30.5 DKFP/52 FDFP in his last three games. He draws an excellent match-up against a weak Detroit lineup. And he’s been lights out at home this season where he boasts a 2.18 ERA, 2.45 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and a massive 38.5% kRate. The Giants (-200) are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate and Detroit ranks last with a paltry 3.0 implied run total.

Shane Baz (RHP), TB | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.2k | vs. MIL

There are several great pitching options I’m skimming over when going from Rodon down to Baz, but there is some legit strikeout potential here and Baz checks in at very affordable price points on both sites. He’s averaging over a K per inning with 15 Ks through his first 13 IP in 2022 (28.3% kRate) and in his four starts at the Triple-A level this year, he was rocking a monster 37.7% kRate. He held the mighty Yankees lineup to a single run (solo shot HR) in his last outing and draws a match-up with a Brewers offense that has been right around league average against RHPs (103 wRC+, ranks 14th) with an above-average strikeout rate (23.7% kRate, 7th highest). This game features a low 7.0 run total and the Rays are slight home favorites as well.

JP Sears (LHP), NYY | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6k | vs. OAK

We go even further down the SP pricing hierarchy with Sears, who will be making his second ever MLB start. Do note that his first start came over a month ago back on May 25th when he pitched five scoreless innings against the Orioles, allowing just three hits, two walks, and struck out five while earning the win -- good for 22 DKFP/36 FDFP. In 39.1 IP in Triple-A this year, Sears has come away with an excellent 1.83 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, .162 opp AVG, and 33.6% kRate. If those skills continue to translate over to the MLB level, he could certainly post a similar stat line to the one he had against the O’s. This is the Oakland A’s we’re talking about here, after all. The Yankees are also -200 favorites so if Sears can go another five innings, he could easily line himself up to earn that valuable win bonus.

Also Consider:

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.4k | @ TB

Sean Manaea (LHP), SD | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.8k | @ ARI

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | @ KC

Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.7k | vs. BOS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

Other Stacks to Consider

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

It’s another day where the Cards will land firmly on the stack radar. Over the last two weeks, they’re rocking a .342 wOBA, .205 ISO, and 124 wRC+. They’re also one of the better home offenses in the MLB -- their 118 wRC+ at home ranks 5th in the MLB. They’ll go up against a fairly inexperienced lefty in Braxton Garrett who has done nothing particularly impressive in his career 59.1 IP in the MLB -- 4.85 ERA, 4.45 xFIP, .307 opp AVG, 1.77 WHIP (!).

MIA Bullpen Rating: 5/10 (Average)

Favorite STL Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson | Sneaky Bat: Juan Yepez

Texas Rangers vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

The Rangers worked out well for us yesterday so let’s see if they can stay hot against the Royals for a second consecutive day. The Royals are rolling out another poor-quality starter as Jonathan Heasley checks in with a slate-worst 5.24 xFIP and allows plenty of hard contact while rarely striking out many batters. Heasley’s splits vs. LHBs are pretty rough as well: 6.63 ERA, 5.61 xFIP, .413 wOBA, 3.32 HR/9. I don’t mind throwing some extra favoritism towards the Texas lefty bats today. Having a few innings worth of at-bats against Kansas City’s bad bullpen is never a bad thing either.

KC Bullpen Rating: 2/10 (Very Poor)

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Kole Calhoun, Nathaniel Lowe | Sneaky Bat: Josh H. Smith

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cincinnati Reds vs. Keegan Thompson (RHP), CHC

The Reds aren’t an offense you want to target too often unless they draw a good match-up at home in Great American ‘Small’ Park. They did just put up 10 runs on the Giants at Oracle Park on Sunday and there will be some nice hitting conditions at Wrigley Field today (warm with 10 mph winds blowing out to center). Keegan Thompson is coming off of a couple of impressive starts but he does still have some potential to get tagged up. He’s a pretty average pitcher who will be backed up by a Cubs bullpen that has allowed the most HRs (46) in the MLB this season.

CHC Bullpen Rating: 5/10 (Average)

Favorite CIN Bats: Brandon Drury, Tommy Pham, Donovan Solano | Sneaky Bat: Albert Almora Jr.

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Trea Turner | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

SS Corey Seager | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

3B Brandon Drury | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Keegan Thompson (RHP), CHC

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Kole Calhoun | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

SS Oneil Cruz | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

3B Josh H. Smith | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

OF Gavin Sheets | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Chase Silseth (RHP), LAA

1B Michael Chavis | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Brandon Drury | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Keegan Thompson (RHP), CHC

Drury is much better against LHPs but he’s showing solid power against righties as well with a .201 ISO and .341 wOBA against RHPs this season with eight HRs. Thompson has allowed a fairly high 1.54 HR/9 Rate to RHBs with a 14.6% HR/FB Rate. No other bullpen has given up more HRs this season than the Cubbies relief unit and, once again, the conditions at Wrigley Field today should favor the hitters -- warm with 10 mph winds blowing out to center. Let’s see if we can get a Drury bomb tonight.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Carlos Rodon to Record a Win: Yes | +115 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

The Giants possess high -200 moneyline odds tonight and this should be a spot where Rodon can line himself up for a win. He’s been lights out at home this season and the Tigers are 2-6 in their last eight meeting in San Francisco. I’ll happily lock this bet in at plus money.

Dylan Carlson OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +125 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Goldschmidt o1.5 bases (-110, BetMGM) is the safer Cardinals bet but since Tyler and Shannon already covered that particular prop on the podcast, I’ll go to Dylan Carlson to record at least two bases from hits tonight. Carlson has been bumped up the lineup and is now hitting out of the two-hole. He’s a very productive bat against lefties, hitting .328 over his last 150 games vs. LHPs. Marlins LHP Braxton Garrett has allowed a .333 AVG and .393 wOBA to RHBs this season and Carlson’s switch-hitting ability will boost his chances of hitting this prop even if he doesn’t get multiple bases off of Garrett. Carlson has cashed this prop in three straight games heading into today and the chances look good for him to make it a fourth.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!