By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 6/28 On Deck Podcast w/ Scott Bogman & KC Bubba

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Welcome back to a new week of MLB DFS action! We’ll have a nine-game main slate heading our way this evening and boy, oh boy, could this one get wild quickly. Once you get past the top two or three pitchers on the slate, there is a very noticeable drop-off in general talent and expectations. I would consider roughly half of the starting pitchers today as downright inadequate MLB-caliber starters. There are also several games which will see temperatures push 90 degrees, which will only help hard-hit fly balls carry even further. Perhaps that aspect of baseball where “what is expected to happen won’t happen” will come into play today and scores will end up being fairly normal, or even on the lower side of things… but I won’t be counting on it. Good luck today! Let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

Hot w/ helpful winds in several ballparks. Potential trouble brewing in the MIN @ CWS game.

NYM @ WAS (7:05 ET): 85-90 degrees with a fair amount of humidity and 10 mph winds blowing OUT to LF. Bats get a decent bump here.

LAA @ NYY (7:05 ET): 85-90 degrees, somewhat humid, 10 mph winds blowing OUT to LF.

KC @ BOS (7:10 ET): Similar conditions as DC & New York. Near 90 degrees, humid, and 10 mph winds blowing OUT to CF.

DET @ CLE (7:10 ET): Low-end chance of a delay due to potential scattered showers in the area. Not a major PPD threat.

MIN @ CWS (8:10 ET): This is the primary trouble spot for today. If they play, they’ll almost certainly have to play in wet conditions as rain is currently expected to linger for much of the game. Check the outlook here closer to lock. A postponement situation can’t be ruled out.

Note: For the sake of this newsletter, I will avoid players from this game for now.

BAL @ HOU (8:10 ET): Roof will be CLOSED.

ARI @ STL (8:15 ET): Rain will be in the general St. Louis area but current expectations are that the majority, or all, of the storms, will hold north of the ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP) | DK: $10.5k, FD: $9.5k | vs. CHC

For your premium pitching options today, you have Trevor Bauer ($10.9k/$11k), Lucas Giolito ($10.3k/$9.8k), and Freddy Peralta. I don’t necessarily mind Bauer but he is obviously the most expensive pitcher on the slate, he doesn’t have the best match-up, and we’ve seen his overall numbers take a noticeable dip in the last few weeks (coinciding with the sticky substance crackdown). Giolito is also facing a less-than-ideal opponent and also brings on additional risk due to uncertain weather conditions in that game. So that leaves Freddy P as the standout option to spend up on and your ‘go-to’ pitcher in cash games.

Peralta has been terrific all season but will be taking the mound at home tonight where he has been absolute nails. In seven home starts (46.1 IP), Peralta holds a 4-1 record with a 1.55 ERA, 3.47 xFIP, 35.3% kRate, 0.67 WHIP, and .109 opp AVG. He has an insane 47.1% kRate vs. RHBs at home and the Cubs have several righties who swing and miss a ton (Contreras, Baez, Wisdom, Marisnick all have a >30% kRate vs. RHPs). As a whole, the Cubs have been the MOST strikeout prone team in the MLB over the last month with a 29.7% kRate vs. RHPs. They just got K’d up 13 times by Clayton Kershaw on Sunday Night Baseball last night (I know, Kersh is a lefty, doesn’t matter much with the Cubs!) and will have to make the quick turnaround traveling on the road from L.A. to Milwaukee. If you don’t mind eating the chalk here, Peralta has a great chance to end the night as the highest-scoring DFS pitcher.

Kyle Hendricks (RHP) | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.3k | @ MIL

I was fairly split on whether or not to highlight Hendricks or Zack Greinke here. Despite Houston being astro-nomical (hah) -340 favorites and Greinke looking like a decent floor option, he’s just been oddly bad at home this season and his 17.9% kRate doesn’t exactly entice me either.

Hendricks hasn’t really been a pitcher I go out of my way to target this year, mostly due to the low K upside (19.1% kRate this season)… which is similar to Greinke. BUT on a poor pitching slate like this, I may have to make an exception. In his last eight starts (52.0 IP), Hendricks has shown a decent floor, scoring no less than 15.1 DKFP/28 FDFP. In that span, he has a 2.25 ERA, 3.97 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 19.8% kRate, .227 opp AVG, .284 opp wOBA, and he’s stranding 90.5% of runners on base. Obviously, those aren’t crazy good numbers, but serviceable -- especially that low <1.00 WHIP and high LOB%. Also, in both of his starts against Milwaukee this season, he has gone 6.0 IP deep while striking out 12 batters and allowing two total earned runs. He also has some pretty extensive and respectable BvP history against the current Brewers roster: 196 PA, .222 AVG, .260 wOBA, 23.7% kRate. While I’d definitely rather have Peralta in this game, depending on which way the run support pendulum swings, there is a reasonable enough chance that Hendricks outscores Peralta if he’s able to put himself in line for the win. The odds are pretty even here (MIL -150, CHC +130) and on DraftKings, I don’t think it’s too bad of an idea (mostly for cash game purposes) to roster both pitchers in this game in hopes of a low-scoring pitcher’s duel. There’s a pretty good chance of the under (7.5 O/U) hitting here.

Anthony DeSclafani (RHP) | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.3k | @ LAD

If DeSclafani was playing just about any other team, he’d be chalk city tonight (at least as an SP2 on DK). As it stands, I see him coming in at around 5-10% owned on the road against the Dodgers. DeSclafani has been tagged up both times he has faced the Dodgers this season, which obviously isn’t a confidence booster, but he’s looked dialed in ever since facing them last on May 28th. In his four starts since that game (27.0 IP), DeSclafani has boasted a 1.00 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 0.68 WHIP, 26.8% kRate, .152 AVG, and .193 wOBA. Just like any other MLB offense, the Dodgers are fully capable of putting up a dud with 0-to-3 runs scored and even though they’re extremely solid against RHPs, especially at home, Vegas is showing DeSclafani some respect while giving LAD a middling 4.4 implied run total. Implied run totals should always be viewed as what Vegas sees as a “median outcome.” So, if the coin flips on the <4.4 run side of things, DeSclafani could easily come away as a solid value tonight at very low ownership. He’s a GPP leverage play, for sure.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  Surprise, surprise. The Houston Astros check in as a top stack once again as they face Thomas Eshelman for the second time in five days. Eshelman lasted just four innings against Houston last Wednesday while allowing six runs on eight hits. Behind the Astros, you’ll have a number of strong stack candidates but I believe my preferred option, albeit a bit more boom/bust-ish, would be the New York Yankees facing a ‘broken’ Dylan Bundy.

Boston Red Sox vs. Danny Duffy (LHP) + Bullpen, KC

It’s a bit of a mystery on what exactly Kansas City is doing with Duffy. Following a 5+ week stint on the IL with a forearm injury, Duffy returned to toss two innings versus the Yankees five days ago, then pitched an inning out of the bullpen three days ago against the Rangers. Duffy was having a great season prior to that injury, so there is a good chance the Royals are using plenty of caution with him while also showing that he is still in good form as they anticipate a potential upcoming trade. So, all of that to say: this is eventually going to turn into a bullpen game for the Royals, which is good news for Boston bats. The Royals bullpen has a 4.63 xFIP on the season (5th worst) and a 4.76 xFIP over the last month (4th worst). They give up a fair amount of homers (1.27 HR/9) and put quite a few runners on base along the way (1.38 WHIP). Fenway Park will have great hitting conditions today with temps near 90 degrees and winds blowing out to center at 10 mph.

Washington Nationals vs. Jerad Eickhoff (RHP), NYM

Eickhoff only has one start and 4.0 IP under his belt this season, didn’t pitch at all last year, and across 58.1 IP in 2019 he sported a 5.71 ERA, 5.15 xFIP, 2.78 HR/9 Rate, and a high 10.3% Barrel%. The Nationals have been borderline elite against RHPs as of late, with a 132 wRC+ vs. righties over the last two weeks alongside a .368 wOBA, .207 ISO, and 40.0% Hard%. Eickhoff also has a terrible .471 wOBA and .429 ISO allowed to lefty hitters over the last three years, so if you want to lean towards stacking those LHBs towards the top of the order (Schwarber, Soto, Bell) then I’d have no issues with that. Eickhoff likely won’t pitch too deep into this game which would leave a strong Mets bullpen to potentially handle most of the innings. But in the hitter-friendly conditions at Nationals Park today, I’d be willing to take my chances with some Nats bats.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

The Tigers aren’t exactly flying under the radar on this slate, but I also don’t envision them being overly popular either -- even in good spots, they rarely are. I’m seeing Eli Morgan gaining some consideration across the industry and, hey, maybe he ends up working out. But folks are being drawn to his 27.8% kRate despite that being over just an 11.1 IP sample size with nine of his 16 Ks coming against the strikeout-addicted Cubs. Morgan has shown decent strikeout potential at certain minor league levels but in four starts in Triple-A this season (admittedly, also a small 17.1 IP sample size), he accrued just a 20.8% kRate with a 1.44 WHIP and 5.45 xFIP. The Tigers have been sneaky solid on offense lately and their 108 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last couple of weeks puts them at 11th in the MLB in that stretch. I believe you can find a few Detroit bats worth throwing out there today and this stack definitely won’t break the bank.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

2B/OF Whit Merrifield | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), LAA

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Michael King (RHP), NYY

SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Danny Duffy (LHP), KC

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jerad Eickhoff (RHP), NYM

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Thomas Eshelman (RHP), BAL

OF Eddie Rosario | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B Christian Walker | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP), STL

OF Akil Baddoo | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

OF Myles Straw | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Thomas Eshelman (RHP), BAL

OF Ryan O’Hearn | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

2B/SS Nicky Lopez | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

2B/SS David Fletcher | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Michael King (RHP), NYY

(DK Value) OF Daz Cameron | DK: $2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), LAA

There are plenty of promising HR calls one could make today so going with Judge was a tough final decision. It makes plenty of sense, however, so I’m quite confident in it. He’s homered off of Bundy three times in his career (20 PA w/ an .858 xSLG) and has an average 93.8 mph exit velo vs. RHPs over the last two weeks (90th percentile). Judge is creating 47.6% Hard Contact against RHPs at home this season while Bundy has a 2.81 HR/9 Rate against RHBs on the road in 2021. You also have to take into account the appealing hitting weather in New York today (90 degrees, humid, 10 mph winds blowing out). Yankee Stadium has also rated out as the 10th best home run park on the year, so with all of that factored in, let’s look for Judge to go yard today. Scott Bogman and KC Bubba have Schwarber and Ohtani as their HR calls today, so be sure to retweet the HR tweet linked below if ya want a chance at some free merch -- pretty decent chance at a 3-for-3 day this evening!

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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