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- Top MLB DFS Plays 6/28 | Getting Risky on the Mound
Top MLB DFS Plays 6/28 | Getting Risky on the Mound
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Strap in for another Friday slate made for the big boys and girls! Fourteen games are at our disposal and things may be tricky but I think this will be a fun one. Even with 28 teams in play, I donāt believe you can plant your flag on any one pitcher with absolute confidence. So we could see ownership spread out more than usual. Eight teams currently have an implied run total of five or higher so expect many of those options to be fairly popular. Coors Field is going to see temperatures in the 90s at first pitch as well, which could provide baseballs with even more pop -- I imagine many will do what they can to jam in those Dodgers/Rockies power bats. Hell, even the low-power guys could probably muscle one out in those conditions if they get a decent pitch to hit. But there are many other games and guys to talk about outside of that one, so letās dive in!
Todayās match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:
Weather Report ā
Overall, no major postponement threats stand out. Some pop-up/scattered storms could cause a delay in the MIN @ CWS, WAS @ DET, and CLE @ BAL games but nothing seems all too certain just yet. Do a quick check on those games when we are closer to first pitch. Game time temperatures are around 90 degrees in several ballparks. Click the Daily Dashboard link below to see which offenses could get a boost from the warm weather.
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Mike Clevinger (DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.4k) | RHP | CLE @ BAL
Early on, Clevinger seems like he may be one of the more favorable pitchers to roll out but there is still some decent risk. Obviously, heās coming fresh off the injured list in back-to-back starts -- fortunately (I suppose), itās with separate injuries and not a reaggravation of his initial back issue. His newest problem was an ankle that he tweaked in his previous start in Texas, but all indications are he is a full go tonight. Clevinger didnāt quite have his best stuff in his last start, allowing five runs in 4.2 innings. Still, we saw the strikeout upside as he fanned seven batters before being pulled from the game. His 29 strikeouts in just 16.2 innings results in a ridiculous 46.8% kRate, which easily eclipses every other pitcher on the slate. Obviously, thatās a very small sample size and an unsustainable strikeout rate but heāll get a pretty beatable match-up with Baltimore tonight who has a pretty healthy 23.1% kRate versus RHPs this year along with an 81 wRC+ which ranks 26th. Clevinger likely surrenders some hits/runs as he shakes off some rust in a hitter-friendly Camden Yards. But the strikeout upside is undeniable, the Indians are healthy -190 favorites, and the right-hander is a bit discounted on both sites.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.9k) | LHP | LAD @ COL
This is clearly far from a safe play but occasionally rolling out a stud pitcher at Coors Field pays off due to low ownership and Ryu has certainly been a stud this season. Heās a dominant pitcher to target at home but heās been strong on the road as well, where he has a 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 0.87 HR/9 and an elite 93.2% Left on Base Percentage (LOB%). The ārisk factorā is baked in to his DFS salaries considering in any other match-up/ballpark heād cost you around $2k more than he currently does. Ryu has permitted an average exit velocity of 83.5 mph (top 95%) in the last 30 days, which isnāt enough to allow home runs even in Coors Field. If he can keep that up, he may provide you with a fantasy output that youāre familiar with from him. So, a risk/reward play for sure. But the Dodgers are also -200 favorites so, if he doesnāt get tagged up too badly, heāll likely find himself in line for the win. Iād much rather take my chances with Ryu than the majority of guys priced around him in the middle tier that are nowhere near his skill level.
Eric Lauer (DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.7k) | LHP | SD vs. STL
The value tier today actually has some relatively appealing options between guys like Elisier Hernandez, Vince Velasquez, and (on DraftKings) Anibal Sanchez -- though Iām personally not a huge fan of the latter. All things considered, Eric Lauer seems like a fine SP2 option as well. Aside from two starts at Coors Field and his second game of the season against Arizona, Lauer hasnāt really had a disastrous fantasy output. Heās also been more reliable at home where he has a 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 0.77 HR/9 and holding batters to a .244 AVG/.284 wOBA. His strikeout rate isnāt phenomenal (17.2%) but for the price, about six innings of work with a handful of punchouts on the way would do just fine. In the Cardinals last 120 plate appearances against lefties on the road, they are hitting just .187 alongside a 26.7% kRate with a 70 wRC+. Theyāve scored four runs or fewer in six of their last eight games and will be playing in the very pitcher-friendly Petco Park tonight. Lauer's counterpart, Michael Wacha, has a tendency to turn into a gas can, so the Padres could provide some decent run support for their pitcher as well to potentially get him in line for a win.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, thereās no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Milwaukee Brewers (LHBs) vs. Chris Archer (RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates)
The Brewers (5.9 implied runs) check in second behind the Dodgers (6.8 implied runs) in terms of expected offensive output tonight. We know Miller Park can provide hitters with a nice boost and you have to love some of these Brewer lefties tonight against Chris Archer. He has given up 2.76 HR/9 against LHBs this season and has fared even worse on the road after allowing six home runs to lefties in just 11.2 innings pitched (4.63 HR/9). Across the season, he gives up 48.4% Hard Contact to lefties -- 58.6% on the road. Remember, for pitchers, anything above a 40% Hard Contact Rate is bad news. Your typical trio of Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, and Yasmani Grandal are the most appealing options. He may not be a lefty, but keep an eye on whether or not Keston Hiura gets the start today after being recalled from Triple-A (Travis Shaw optioned down). Hiura had five homers in just 64 at-bats in his stint with the Brewers earlier in the season.
San Diego Padres (RHBs) vs. Michael Wacha (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)
Wacha has been a reverse splits pitcher (worse against righties) throughout his career but heās shown extreme reverse splits this season and this is a Padres team loaded with lethal right-handed power. Against RHBs, Wacha allows an awful .338 AVG, .427 wOBA, .281 ISO, and 2.79 HR/9 with a 1.97 WHIP. Those numbers get worse on the road. The Padres have been pouring in runs in the last couple weeks and itās certainly showing in their DFS salaries. But if youāre stacking these guys up, you have to love the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Hunter Renfroe. Franmil Reyes carries plenty of home run upside as well but wonāt break the bank as hard as those other three Padres.
Detroit Tigers vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP, Washington Nationals)
On a 14-game slate, maybe you donāt need to get this contrarian, but as of now, Anibal Sanchez is the most ālovedā pitcher on LineStar and even though the Tigers offense is pretty miserable, Iām not buying the Sanchez love all that much. If heās going to be remotely chalky, taking some Detroit exposure could pay off. Sure, Sanchez has strung together five solid starts in a row but his 5.36 xFIP on the road is pretty terrible and, while itās not a strong bet, I think heās fully capable of getting tagged up today. Detroit has a 4.9 implied run total for a reason. I wouldnāt go rolling out full four or five man Tiger stacks, but some guys that could find success include JaCoby Jones, Nicholas Castellanos, and Christin Stewart.
One-Off Hitters
Here Iāll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a āone-offā piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Josh Bell (DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.5k) | 1B | vs. Jhoulys Chacin (RHP, MIL)
Josh Bell seems to perpetually go under-owned and he is often one of my favorite guys to spend up on in GPPs, especially on days where people will want to budget in the expensive Dodger power hitters. Bell is a switch hitter who has had more success batting lefty versus righties this season. Against RHPs, he has an elite .322 AVG, .441 wOBA, .339 ISO and 48.6% Hard Contact Rate. Chacin actually hasnāt given up an awful lot of power to LHBs this season (.196 ISO) but he does allow a massive 50.5% Hard Contact Rate. Bell is coming off of back-to-back home run games in a Houston ballpark that traditionally isnāt considered a hitters' park. Miller Park is quite the opposite. Iāll say Bell launches his third home run in as many days today, likely at single digit ownership. š£
Jose Altuve (DK: $3.9k, FD: $4k) | 2B | vs. Tommy Milone (LHP, SEA)
I just canāt seem to get on board with Tommy Milone and would think some regression is due. His strikeouts are up but heās about to face a team that doesnāt strike out very much when he travels to Houston tonight. Altuve hasnāt been in his best form as a hitter this season, but in limited action against lefties, (42 plate appearances) he is still crushing with a .385 AVG, .522 wOBA, and .462 ISO. Heās too good of a hitter to not catch momentum sooner or later and, like Bell, no one will really be playing him.
Brian Dozier (DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k) | 2B | vs. Daniel Norris (LHP, DET)
Dozier was my value one-off hitter yesterday despite his poor RvR splits and he managed to pay off relatively well, hitting a couple of doubles. Today, he gets to face a lefty, which he has much stronger splits against. And his prices havenāt fluctuated, so Iām willing to go back to him to save some salary. Against LHPs, Dozier is rocking a .349 AVG, .459 wOBA, .333 ISO on 40.4% Hard Contact and a 45.7% Fly Ball Rate. Not that heās been a revelation or anything but Norris is another pitcher who I believe is playing a bit over his head. Norrisā home field at Comerica Park gives more of an advantage to hitters and when pitching at home this season, he has a 1.80 HR/9 Rate. The Nationals have a healthy 5.6 implied run total today and I believe Dozier can absolutely play a part in the offensive production, especially if he gets a bump up in the batting order.
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