Today's Top DFS Plays & Prop Bets from your #1 Companion for DraftKings, FanDuel, & Yahoo!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

I hope everyone’s ready to crush another week of MLB DFS! A pretty juicy nine-game slate leads us off on this workweek. Unfortunately, it seems your boy caught some sort of virus (non-Covid) on vacation last week so I’m currently laid up on the couch writing this newsletter. So, not to cut any corners, but this will be a fairly short read today! Good luck to my LineStar fam!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

PIT @ WAS (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Low chance of a late start if pregame rain hangs around too long. Nothing to really worry about.

OAK @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Some afternoon rain could linger into the first few innings of this game before clearing around 8-9 o’clock ET. It seems likely they’ll play nine innings tonight but there will be some delay/late-start risk.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Martin Perez (LHP), MIN | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.7k | @ KC

It’s a tough look for most pitchers today, particularly at the top. Match-up concerns, poor recent form, and low K upside plague many of the high-end options. But if I’m targeting one guy up top, it’ll likely be Perez. Despite his slightly below average 20.1% kRate, Perez is often coming away with DFS performances that net him mid-20s DKFP/mid-40s FDFP. He’s been a certified innings eater and has pitched through at least six frames in 11 of his last 12 starts. The Royals have been somewhat hot recently but overall, they’re an average at best offense vs. LHPs.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY | DK: $8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. OAK

Monty is looking to be one of the chalkier options today, especially on DK (40% pOwn), but it might be some chalk worth eating on this particular slate. He draws the ever-favorable match-up with the A’s today who have scored two runs or fewer in eight of their last 12 games. Montgomery may have a low 18.5% kRate, but his strong 13.9% Swinging Strike Rate indicates that he could be due for some positive strikeout regression. The Yankees (-300) are the heaviest favorites on the slate and Monty should be able to break through that 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold today. Just be sure to keep an eye on the forecast here leading up to the first pitch.

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $7.1k, FD: $9k | vs. BAL

Montgomery and Kirby (42% pOwn on DK) will likely be the most popular DK SP1/SP2 pairing today but, again, it’s easy to see why, especially with Kirby’s soft $7.1k price tag. The best outing of his rookie season came against the O’s back on 5/31 where he posted a stat line of: 6.0 IP, 94 PC, 4 H, 0 ER, 9 K -- 29.9 DKFP/52 FDFP. It’s a big ask for him to replicate that performance but BAL is nothing special on offense and they’ve struck out 29.2% of the time over the last week. At home this season, Kirby has also posted an excellent 28.3% kRate next to a very sharp 2.37 xFIP.

Also Consider:

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.5k | vs. BOS

Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. MIA

*Connor Seabold (RHP), BOS | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | @ TOR

*DraftKings GPP Only

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD

Other Stacks to Consider

Texas Rangers vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

Bubic has managed to hold it together over his last few starts but I’m not sure how long he can keep that going. He’s been particularly bad at home this season where he has posted a 7.78 ERA, 5.31 xFIP, 1.88 WHIP, and a 16% kRate. His reverse splits have been off the charts bad as well (vs. LHBs: 11.12 ERA, 6.78 xFIP, 3.88 WHIP, .585 wOBA, 4.76 HR/9). Following Bubic will be a KC bullpen that has posted an MLB-worst 4.62 xFIP and 1.51 WHIP this season. The Rangers do not have an elite offense but they have done well against southpaws this season -- their 115 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 7th in the MLB.

KC Bullpen Rating: 2/10 (Awful)

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe, Jonah Heim | Sneaky Bat: Josh H. Smith

Los Angeles Angels vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

Giolito is too talented *not* to bounce back sooner or later, but until he proves that he’s a pitcher to avoid stacking against… well, we stack against him. Based on his last five starts, Giolito has been arguably one of the worst pitchers on the slate: 25.2 IP, 9.47 ERA, 4.87 xFIP, 1.99 WHIP, .357 opp AVG, .471 opp wOBA, 3.20 HR/9. Gio has been another pitcher who has posted some extremely poor reverse splits so I don’t hate leaning towards the LAA righties… but it’s also hard to keep Ohtani out of an Angels stack as well.

CWS Bullpen Rating: 7/10 (Good)

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Shohei Ohtani | Sneaky Bat: Max Stassi

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

It’s always a tough sell when it comes to recommending a Pirates stack but, I meannnn, the bats have been decent lately. They have managed to score at least five runs in five of their last seven games and, in that time, their team .210 ISO ranks 3rd in the MLB and their 12 HRs hit is tied for second-most. Erick Fedde is a subpar starting pitcher who has struggled at home (5.03 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .348 opp wOBA) and the Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. None of these Pirates bats are going to break the bank either.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 2/10 (Awful)

Favorite PIT Bats: Oneil Cruz, Daniel Vogelbach, Bryan Reynolds | Sneaky Bat: Bligh Madris

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $6.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

SS Corey Seager | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), LAD

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA

C Alejandro Kirk | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), BOS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Bligh Madris | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

SS Oneil Cruz | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

OF Edward Olivares | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), LAD

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Gavin Sheets | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

I’ll be going a little out of pocket with the HR call today but I want to target those TERRIBLE reverse splits that Kris Bubic has posted. Bubic vs. LHBs this season: 11.12 ERA, 6.78 xFIP, 3.88 WHIP, .585 wOBA, 4.76 HR/9, 37.5% HR/FB Rate. Now, admittedly, those numbers are coming from a very small sample size of 39 total LHBs faced this season but the poor reverse splits have plagued Bubic throughout his career, so I don’t see it as any sort of fluke. LHB Nate Lowe has been great in lefty on lefty situations this season posting a .288 AVG, .385 wOBA, .288 ISO, 156 wRC+, and a lofty 36.4% HR/FB Rate. Lowe just needs to smack a well-hit fly ball off of Bubic and it’s likely leaving the yard. I’m loving the +850 odds (Caesars) on Lowe’s HR prop today as well.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Jordan Montgomery OVER 3.5 Strikeouts | -161 (Caesars) | 3.0 Units

Sorry, but if Monty can’t get at least four Ks against the A’s today, then something’s up. The A’s have a fairly high 23% kRate vs. LHPs this season, Montgomery has recorded at least 4 Ks in 11-of-14 starts this season (and in five of his last six). His kRate also goes up a bit when pitching at home and he’s also producing a strong 13.9% SwStr%. The odds are clearly not all too juicy on this bet but I’m just surprised to see that some books have this as the baseline K prop for Monty. I feel comfortable throwing a three-unit bet down here. I’d also look at the “Jordan Montgomery to record a win” prop at +130 (DraftKings).

Martin Perez OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded | -145 (BetMGM) | 3.0 Units

I feel like this is another prop that should have odds closer to, like, -300. Perez has essentially been an innings eater all season. He has hit the over on this prop by pitching at least six full innings in 11 of his last 12 starts. More often than not, he’s going to end the day at around 100 total pitches thrown and the Royals aren’t necessarily a tough match-up either. I’ll be putting another three-unit wager on this prop as well.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!