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- Top MLB DFS Plays 6/26 | Midweek Main Slate Breakdown
Top MLB DFS Plays 6/26 | Midweek Main Slate Breakdown
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Here’s to hoping all of you procrastinating at work had some success on the six game early slate. Even with three additional games, the pitching options for this main slate seem considerably uglier than the ones that were available in the early games. It seems like a day to focus on GPPs because there’s not one guy taking the mound tonight that elicits extreme confidence. The majority of implied totals sit in the 9 to 9.5 range with NYM @ PHI and SEA @ MIL carrying the only double digit totals. Some solid offensive performances are expected but perhaps not quite to the extent that we’ve seen lately. So, let’s strap in and break it down!
Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:
Weather Report ⛅
Not much to be overly concerned with today. The ATL @ CHC and OAK @ STL games may see a passing shower that could cause a delay but currently it doesn’t too likely. Also, it may be worth noting that Chicago won’t have those 10+ mph winds blowing out that they've had the last couple days and game time temps should be under 80 degrees. NYM @ PHI will see temps near 90 degrees and a more humid environment which could aide the offensive production in a series that has already seen 32 runs in the first two games.
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Jake Odorizzi (DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.7k) | RHP | MIN vs. TB
First, I’ll mention that Patrick Corbin at Miami seems to be the obvious cash/chalk SP1 who *likely* has the safest floor. Even though he will be in the pitcher friendly Marlins Park, it’s worth mentioning that Corbin has exceeded 14.1 DKFP/31 FDFP just once in his last six road starts. Overall, paying up for these other guys doesn’t seem very appealing, so a contrarian approach may be to take one or two of these high-priced guys. Odorizzi stunk it up at Kansas City in his last start and he burned a lot of people that night, so perhaps you’ll get some leverage by working him into some lineups tonight. He is back pitching at home where he has stronger splits this season: 1.91 ERA, 29.5% kRate, 0.90 WHIP and allows just a .190 AVG/.231 wOBA. The Rays offense has been strong during the course of the season against righties with a 107 wRC+, ranking 8th. However, over the last month they’ve been struggling against RHPs on the road. In those 419 plate appearances, they have a 76 wRC+ (25th) and bottom ten hitting numbers (batting average, wOBA, ISO) while striking out a healthy 24.8% of the time. It’s not the safest play, but Odorizzi could turn out to be a nice pivot off of the chalky Corbin.
Zac Gallen (DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k) | RHP | MIA vs. WAS
Another way to counter the Corbin chalk would be to roster his counterpart, Gallen. We saw Gallen get 99 pitches in his MLB debut on the road in St. Louis where he turned in a strong performance across five innings, carding six strikeouts and allowing just one run -- good for 17.1 DKFP/30 FDFP. The strikeout upside is definitely available with him considering he had a 33.6% kRate in 14 starts at the AAA level this year prior to being called up. Washington certainly has some dangerous hitters in the top half of their lineup but Gallen should benefit from the positive home environment, a long leash on his pitch count, and the beneficial park factor.
Framber Valdez (DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.7k) | LHP | HOU vs. PIT
Houston will easily be the heaviest favorite on the night with a -230 moneyline. Valdez could turn out to be a great value after going over 24 DKFP/43 FDFP in both of his previous home starts. I believe we can forgive him for not having his best game during his last time out when he faced the Yankees on the road. He’s pitched largely in relief this year and doesn’t get a great deal of strikeouts with a 21.8% kRate. However, he is forcing a ton of ground balls with an excellent 60.2% GB Rate. The Pirates should be a plus match-up for Valdez. Pittsburgh has been awful on the road against lefties this year while posting a.275 wOBA (29th), .135 ISO (26th), 67 wRC+ (29th) with an extremely high 27.8% kRate. They’ve also hit into 47.9% ground balls (5th most) against LHPs on the road so that should play into Valdez’s skill-set nicely. His pitch count has maxed out at 84 pitches through his first few starts, which is concerning. But if he continues to force all those ground balls, he should be able to work through six, maybe seven innings on a similar pitch count.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Jason Vargas (LHP, New York Mets)
Once again, going back to the Phillies who have 20 runs against the Mets in the last two days. Vargas has been pretty awful on the road with his 4.65 ERA, 5.75 xFIP, 15.8% kRate, and 1.52 WHIP. The Mets bullpen ERA for the last month has now risen to 8.10 with an opponent batting average at .317 and a 2.47 HR/9 Rate. I believe stacking any of the one through six hitters (likely to be Kingery, Segura, Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto, Bruce) is a viable approach.
Houston Astros vs. Dario Agrazal (RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates)
The Astros offense looks like they’re breaking out of their recent slump after scoring 19 runs over their last three games. They’re a better offense at home where their 5.28 runs/game ranks sixth (fourth, if you want to put an asterisk beside Colorado and Texas). With the return of George Springer and the emergence of Yordan Alvarez, this bunch should really get humming again. They’ll face Dario Agrazal, a minor league call-up pitcher who’ll be making just his second career start. He allowed three runs on six hits across four innings in his first start against a much worse opponent (Miami). Overall, he doesn’t profile as a high strikeout guy and Houston should be able to string runs against him. If Houston forces Agrazal into an early exit, the Pirates have had some of the worst relief pitching in the last month with a bullpen that has posted a 6.10 ERA, 4.52 SIERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 1.84 HR/9. Bregman, Alvarez, Springer, and Altuve are likely the guys you’d want to focus on.
Miami Marlins vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP, Washington Nationals)
Obviously, this is risky and more of a ‘game theory’ approach, but one final way to counteract the Corbin chalk is to simply stack two or three Marlins bats against him and hope his struggles on the road (5.91 ERA, 4.61 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP) continue. Also, in reality, the Marlins offense hasn’t been *that* bad. They are 5-2 across their last seven games, scoring at least five runs four times. The Marlins bats are affordable and though I wouldn’t advise rolling out four or five man stacks, guys like Garrett Coopers, Brian Anderson, and Cesar Puello could end up being viable if they get to Corbin early on.
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Pete Alonso (DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.2k) | 1B | vs. RHP Nick Pivetta
I believe everyone knows how dangerous Alonso is by now. Tonight, he’ll be in perhaps the best hitting environment of the evening at Citizens Bank Park in hot and humid weather. Alonso and the Mets face reverse splits pitcher Nick Pivetta who has allowed a .337 AVG, .409 wOBA, and .284 ISO to RHBs this season. Pivetta also gives up 2.70 HR/9 to righties on 42.3% Hard Contact. The righty on righty match-up is no issue for Alonso either. He’s rocking a .397 wOBA, .307 ISO, and 42.5% Hard Contact against RHPs with an average exit velocity of 95.8 mph (top 95%) over the last two weeks. He’s my pick to send one out the park tonight. 💣
Matt Olson (DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k) | 1B | vs. RHP Adam Wainwright
Mentioning another first baseman here, but Olson checks in $1k+ less and has similar home run upside to Alonso. Olson faces off against Adam Wainwright who simply isn’t effective against lefty hitters. Against them, he surrenders a .325 AVG, .421 wOBA, .256 ISO on 44.9% Hard Contact. Olson just hit a solo shot in St. Louis last night -- his 13th of the year (missed a large amount of games at the start of the year). He doesn’t get a ton of base hits off of righties with his .213 AVG and .332 wOBA, but the power is certainly there with a .230 ISO and 48.8% Hard Contact. He is another guy whose 99.3 mph average exit velocity versus RHPs has been among the top 95% of hitters over the last two weeks.
Robinson Cano (DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k) | 2B | vs. RHP Nick Pivetta
Cano isn’t an exciting play but he is a dirt cheap piece you can grab from this game that is projected to be the most offense-heavy of the day. He’s been a considerably better hitter in lefty vs. righty match-ups and has shown some sneaky power off RHPs with a 44.2% Hard Contact Rate and 95.2 mph exit velocity in the last two weeks. You won’t need much out of him today to return value.
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