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- Top MLB DFS Plays 6/25 | Prepare for Offensive Fireworks
Top MLB DFS Plays 6/25 | Prepare for Offensive Fireworks
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Another full Tuesday slate pulls into the station. Pitching is headlined by two aces in Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole but they’re going to be a hard sale for me considering there are so many offenses in great spots. As I’m writing this, a third of today’s games have a double-digit total, including a dozen implied runs projected out in both Chicago and New York. There are 14 teams that carry at least a five run implied total. That's pretty nuts even with all 30 teams in play. Things could get wild today for sure. Let’s see what we got!
Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:
Weather Report ⛅
CWS @ BOS: Fortunately, this appears to be our only significant trouble spot today. Rain should clear late into the scheduled game time, so expect either a (potentially lengthy) late start or perhaps they just try to play through some rain. Either way, it does seem they should get this game in but potential for an in-game delay would obviously be detrimental to the starting pitchers. So keep your eyes peeled for updates later in the day.
ATL @ CHC: Another day with 10-15 mph winds blowing out in Chicago. Bump to the bats.
TB @ MIN: 10-15 mph winds blowing out to center in Minnesota as well.
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Shane Bieber (DK: $10.8k, FD: $9.8k) | RHP | CLE vs. KC
From a pure talent perspective, Bieber isn’t on the level of Scherzer or Cole but all we’re concerned with are his fantasy outputs and the Cleveland ace should carry comparable upside to the aforementioned duo while saving you a decent chunk of salary. Bieber’s 31.4% kRate and 1.08 WHIP are not figures that are far off from Scherzer/Cole’s 2019 numbers. The Royals also represent a solid match-up with their righty-heavy lineup. Against RHPs over the last month, Kansas City ranks nearly dead last in offensive production with a .285 wOBA and 75 wRC+. Their .142 team ISO also rates out as the third lowest in that time. The Indians will be very heavy -240 favorites this evening.
Jack Flaherty (DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.9k) | RHP | STL vs. OAK
As long as Flaherty continues to trend well at home, I’ll continue to give him a long look, especially at these mid-range DFS prices. His 2.49 ERA at home is over four runs better than his 6.68 ERA on the road. He’s also posting a pretty elite 29.4% kRate at Busch Stadium with an equally excellent 0.83 WHIP while holding opposing batters to a .185 average. Against righties (at home) those numbers rise to a 35.2% kRate, 0.67 WHIP, and .143 AVG. Oakland will likely deploy six or seven RHBs in their lineup tonight so it could turn into another strong outing from Flaherty.
Zach Davies (DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.5k) | RHP | MIL vs. SEA
This is more of a ‘duck and cover’ punt play but one that could certainly pay off and allow you to load up on a ton of bats. Davies will get to draw a home start for just the second time in the last month. He’s posted pretty adequate results at Miller Park; he has a 4-0 record, 3.13 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, while allowing a .320 wOBA. What’s not pretty? The strikeout rate. His home kRate is 11.4% (15.2% overall). But if you roster him, you’re more or less counting on him eating up about six innings worth of work, limiting the run damage, getting in line for a win, and if he picks up four or five strikeouts along the way then that’s just a bonus. Seeing all of the lefties that the Mariners may roll out (at least five or six) is pretty unsettling but the Brewers should provide Davies with some solid run support and they’ll be heavy -175 home favorites tonight.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Atlanta Braves vs. Adbert Alzolay (RHP, Chicago Cubs)
I nearly started off with the Yankees but they’re just extra obvious today and will most certainly be chalk. The Braves are a pretty obvious candidate to stack as well but after scoring just three runs last night, perhaps some people will be a bit sour on them. Alzolay is a recent minor league call-up that will be getting his first Major League start tonight (played as a long reliever last game). His short term minor league numbers from this season indicate he is a high strikeout pitcher but his long term numbers put him more at about a 20-25% kRate kinda guy who surrenders a bunch of fly balls. This won’t be a great environment for a fly ball pitcher. I would continue to look for some exposure to the likes of Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Josh Donaldson.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Walker Lockett (RHP, New York Mets)
Gonna roll with some Phillies again today against a truly miserable Mets pitching staff. Philadelphia came into yesterday needing some sort of confidence boost for their offense after suffering a series sweep to Miami. Steven Matz and the Mets bullpen were happy to oblige. Today, they’ll see Walker Lockett take the mound. In Lockett’s last start five days ago, he surrendered six runs across just 2.1 innings and he wasn’t exactly lighting things up in the minor leagues prior to being called up. If he doesn’t last too long, expect the Phillies to get plenty of opportunities against a Mets bullpen that, over the last 30 days, has a 7.85 ERA, 5.53 xFIP, 1.86 WHIP, 2.26 HR/9, and .317 opponent average. Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper and Jay Bruce are a trio of guys who all have nice upside in this one. Bruce will be my home run call for the evening. Let's go BRUUUUCE! 💣
Cincinnati Reds vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP, Los Angeles Angels)
On such a huge slate, I could see an offense like the Reds going overlooked. They’re coming out of a four game series with Milwaukee in which they averaged seven runs per game and could find similar success tonight. Andrew Heaney can certainly stuff the stat sheet with slew of strikeouts but he has been very prone to home runs this season. He only has 25.1 innings pitched under his belt on the year but he’s already given up seven home runs resulting in a 2.49 HR/9 Rate. He is allowing a .212 ISO to LHBs and .270 ISO to RHBs along with a huge 46.9% Hard Contact Rate on 62.5% Fly Balls. Yasiel Puig has been on fire lately and is probably my favorite guy to take from this Reds offense. Alongside him, I’d consider Nick Senzel and Eugenio Suarez, among others. The Reds check in with affordable price tags and could launch a couple dingers off Heaney out in Anaheim.
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Javy Baez (DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k) | SS | vs. LHP Max Fried
Due to Baez being such an aggressive hitter, it’s inevitable that he will go through stretches several games at a time where he will just not produce. Statistically, it’s pretty much unavoidable. However, he’s getting into a bit of a groove lately with seven hits across his last six games, with a pair of homers, and three stolen bases. He has crushed lefties this season with a .404 wOBA and 51.4% Hard Contact. In just 52 at-bats versus LHPs this year, he has six homers. Fried is more of a ground ball pitcher but he has shown struggles as of late and of his eleven home runs given up this year, ten have been off of righties. Baez is more of a threat to throw up a goose egg than most other guys in his price range but I’d be shocked if that was the result tonight.
Willie Calhoun (DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k) | OF | vs. RHP Jordan Zimmermann
In Calhoun’s last 20 games against RHPs (54 plate appearances), he’s knocking a .365 average with four homers, 11 RBI, and a .728 wOBA+ISO. Zimmermann is surrendering a .393 wOBA and .259 ISO to LHBs this year which should result in Calhoun having a solid floor as he looks to bat from the fifth spot in the order once again. The Rangers have a 5.4 implied run total today, so grabbing a middle-of-the-order affordable piece of this offense may prove useful.
Starlin Castro (DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k) | 2B | vs. RHP Max Scherzer
Castro obviously gets the tough match-up with Scherzer today, but for the BvP believers out there, you’ll notice that Castro is hitting .368 against him in his last 20 plate appearances. Castro also has 14 hits in his last 11 games which includes a home run -- a rare feat for him these days. The upside isn’t too crazy here, obviously, but if he can get a couple hits while freeing up salary for other hitters/pitchers elsewhere, then I’d consider taking the low risk to be worth it.
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