Top MLB DFS Plays 6/25 | Anticipating Some Friday Fireworks! 💥

June 25, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Happy Friday! After skimming through the chat, I’m seeing several people talking about coming off of a profitable night on yesterday’s slate so let’s keep the momentum rolling into the weekend, shall we? A baker’s dozen worth of games land on this evening’s main slate. Some troublesome weather in a few spots will bring some postponement/delay concerns into play but there is an outside shot that Mother Nature will cooperate just enough for every game to get nine innings in… though that is wishful thinking right now. This slate sets up with some nice balance between quality pitching and offensive/stack options so let’s not waste any more time and dive right in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

As alluded to in the intro, there are three or four games where weather could bring in some PPD/delay risk. Be sure to keep an eye on the most up-to-date forecasts leading up to lock -- primarily in DET, CIN, & STL.

HOU @ DET (7:10 ET): The forecast shows A LOT of rain in the area but I’m also seeing some conflicting forecasts here. There is a chance that the primary line of storms will hold to the north long enough for them to get this game in. Seems like a straight-up coin flip as to whether or not they’ll play at the moment. If they do, hitters will be facing 15+ mph winds blowing IN from center/right.

ATL @ CIN (7:10 ET): This is another situation where multiple forecasts are in disagreement. There is a chance that this game is not impacted at all by any stormy weather. There is also a chance that a slow-moving line of storms ends up lingering over the ballpark, leading to a very long delay or a PPD. We’ll just have to check on this one closer to lock as well. Winds blowing IN from RF at 10+ mph.

SEA @ CWS (8:10 ET): Low coverage isolated storms will be in the Chicago area this evening but there’s a solid chance they avoid the ballpark altogether. There is some delay risk here if a particularly heavy cell makes its way over the stadium, but a PPD seems unlikely.

PIT @ STL (8:15 ET): This one is dicey at the moment. Rain chances increase around the first pitch as a line of storms threatens to push in right around the first pitch and lingers for several hours. It will depend on the coverage and how much ‘breakage’ there is throughout that line. Perhaps they get fortunate and avoid most of the trouble, but there is certainly some risk here as well.

Note: Pertaining to the newsletter, I will be keeping all players in consideration at this time unless some postponement news comes down the line as I’m writing

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Paddack (RHP) | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. ARI

If I’m looking at spending up today, Carlos Rodon (DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.2k) would be my go-to option against Seattle. Rodon’s 36.6% kRate is nearly 10% higher than any other starting pitcher today and the Mariners are a bottom five offense versus lefties with a 27.6% kRate (5th highest).

When it comes to Paddack, we’ll be hoping to ride the hot hand. He has struck out 20 batters over his last two games (11.0 IP). Over his last six starts (33.1 IP) dating back to May 21st, he has posted a stout 30.5% kRate, 1.05 WHIP, and an excellent 2.84 xFIP. The Diamondbacks go back on the road where they currently hold a modern-era record of 23 consecutive road losses. They may very well be the worst team in baseball by a decent margin. When facing RHPs on the road over the last month, they’re hitting just .179 with a .216 wOBA while striking out 27.4% of the time. What most illustrates Arizona’s offensive woes is their pathetic 34 wRC+ in that same span. They’ve essentially been 66% less efficient than the AVERAGE offense in producing runs (vs. RHPs on the road). Of course, anything can happen in baseball, but Paddack has a great chance to keep his momentum rolling tonight and the Pads lead the slate with massive -320 ML odds.

Mike Minor (LHP) | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.2k | @ TEX

On the season as a whole, Minor has been fairly solid. Amazing? Nope. But definitely solid. However, when he’s out of the confines of his hitter-friendly home ballpark (Kauffman Stadium - #4 hitter’s park in 2021), Minor has pitched very well. In six road starts this season (33.0 IP), Minor has a 3-0 record with a 2.73 ERA, 3.95 xFIP, 31.3% kRate, 1.09 WHIP, and .176 opp AVG. While Globe Life Field has been favorable for hitters in the past, it’s actually rated out as the #8 pitcher’s park this season via adjusted park factor (per baseballsavant.com). This is also a plus match-up for Minor. Texas has performed poorly against southpaws this season, hitting just .235 with a .289 wOBA and 83 wRC+ while striking out 24.0% of the time. The Rangers are also averaging just 3.76 runs/gm at home this season, making them the third-lowest scoring home offense.

Alek Manoah (RHP) | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.7k | vs. BAL

I’ll continue living in this mid-range with the third highlighted pitcher. Manoah played this same Baltimore team in his last start and got ejected as it was determined that he intentionally threw at Maikel Franco after he surrendered back-to-back HRs. He was handed a five-game suspension and a fine by the MLB but Manoah is currently appealing that decision and will be available until the appeals process is complete. So he’ll be in an interesting situation this evening. Baltimore is on a major skid right now and has lost 14 of their last 15 games. In that stretch dating back to June 9th, they’re hitting just .203 against RHPs and have posted just a 67 wRC+ and a 28.2% kRate. Through 23.2 IP in his rookie campaign, Manoah has a strong 27.3% kRate and 1.14 WHIP. His 4.50 xFIP is worrisome and his 49.2% Fly Ball Rate could add some risk in that hitter-friendly ballpark (Sahlen Field), but the Orioles have simply been abysmal so Manoah should have ample opportunity to rack up a nice stat line tonight. The Blue Jays are also huge -260 ML favorites so Manoah could be in line for his second career win, barring a similar meltdown to his last start.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  The Blue Jays should continue to be heavily targeted tonight and I also really love the spot for the Padres as a “late night hammer” stack. If the weather looks like it will cooperate, the Astros should probably land firmly on the ‘stack radar’ yet again.

New York Yankees vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

These Yankees are starting to show off the potential that most expected from them heading into the season. They’re rocking a 136 wRC+ and .369 team wOBA over the last week and will have an appealing match-up with Martin Perez this evening. In 90 plate appearances against Perez, the current Yankees roster holds a .400 wOBA next to just a 20.0% kRate. The Yankees could be rolling out as many as seven or eight righty bats tonight. Against RHBs this season, Perez has a poor 1.46 WHIP and 4.88 xFIP while allowing a .354 wOBA. The Red Sox do have a fairly strong bullpen but the Yankees should be able to do their fair share of damage this evening, especially if Gio Urshela (shin) returns to the lineup which would put NYY at essentially 100% health.

Atlanta Braves vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

The Braves stack gains much more appeal if Ronald Acuna Jr. returns after missing the last two games with tightness in his lower back. Gutierrez has put together a couple of strong performances in his rookie season and has recorded a 3.86 ERA through 28.0 IP. However, that ERA is a far cry from his 5.63 xFIP, so regression is likely coming soon. His 48.8% Fly Ball Rate is also the second-highest among today’s starters, which could lead to some Braves HRs. Atlanta has struggled on the road this year but will get another chance to compete at Great American Ballpark, which has rated out as the #1 hitter’s park this season. Behind Gutierrez will be a very bad Reds bullpen which has a league-worst 5.67 ERA.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kwang Hyun Kim (LHP), STL

Parts of the Pirates order contributed to some GPP winning lineups last night. While they’re obviously not a lock to make that happen again, some of these guys are swinging some hot bats and this match-up isn’t all that worrisome. Pittsburgh has scored at least six runs in four of their last six games and checks in with a 114 wRC+ over the last week. Kwang Hyun Kim has fairly league average numbers and will be supported by one of the worst bullpens in the MLB.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.7k | Corbin Martin (RHP), ARI

C Gary Sanchez | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kwang Hyun Kim (LHP), STL

OF George Springer | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Tyler O’Neill | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

OF Bryan Reynolds | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kwang Hyun Kim (LHP), STL

OF Myles Straw | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Willy Peralta (RHP), DET

C Reese McGuire | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.7k | Corbin Martin (RHP), ARI

Vlad Jr. yesterday, Tatis Jr. today. I’m not exactly going for long shots the last couple of days, but sometimes it’s nice to just target a superstar when they’re in a great spot to hit a dinger or two. Tatis will get, hopefully, at least two cracks at Corbin Martin tonight. Martin has faced 86 right-handed batters in his brief career. In that time, he has allowed an astronomical .482 wOBA, .425 ISO, 4.76 HR/9 Rate, and 45.9% Hard Contact. Tatis has been considerably better against RHPs this season and is creating a 54.2% HardHit% with an 11.9% Barrel% against them. Love his chances at sending one deep today, and he may very well get a couple.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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