By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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An eight-game main slate comes to our doorstep on this Thursday evening. All you have to do is take a quick glance at the 16 starting pitchers for today to realize that this slate is setting up to be heavily favored towards the hitters. Currently, eight teams carry an implied total of at least 4.8 runs and that’s without a line for the ATL@CIN game, which I assume will be around a 10 run total once a line is released. While pitching decisions will be a bit tricky once you get past the top few guys, this should be a fun one with plenty of viable stacks positioned in smash spots. Good luck today, LineStar fam!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

Aside from winds impacting a few match-ups, weather should not pose any significant threat to today’s games.

BAL @ TOR: Winds blowing IN from CF around 10 mph or so.

HOU @ DET: Winds blowing IN from CF at 10-15 mph. It’ll be 80-85 degrees throughout this game which should help counteract the winds a bit.

ATL @ CIN: Winds blowing IN from RF close to 10 mph. Warm temps in the mid-80s so probably not a notable advantage/disadvantage either way.

CLE @ MIN: Light winds blowing OUT to RF. Temps in the low-to-mid 80s throughout.

PIT @ STL: Low-end chance of a passing rainstorm. 15 mph winds blowing right to left. Temps in the mid-80s throughout.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Walker Buehler (RHP) | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11k | vs. CHC

Not going to spend much time here since this is about as obvious as it gets. While I’m not a major fan of these salaries (since he usually only scores about 22 DKFP/40 FDFP), Buehler has shown a great floor and is coming off of his best fantasy performance of the season which included 11 Ks (against Arizona though...). The Cubs strike out plenty against RHPs -- 26.1% on the season (4th most), 30.1% the last two weeks (most). They’re also struggling to hit above the Mendoza Line against righties lately with just a .172 AVG in the last two weeks. The Dodgers come into today as the heaviest favorite at -260. If you can find the value bats you like, Buehler is a worthy, but chalky, DFS play to spend up on.

Luis Garcia (RHP) | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.6k | @ DET

I’m not exactly going against the grain by selecting Garcia either. I am surprised to see him as the 5th most expensive pitcher on DK. In my opinion, FanDuel has it right pricing him in just after Buehler. Garcia’s numbers are very strong this season. Through 70.1 IP he has landed at a 2.82 ERA, 3.99 xFIP (meh), 28.1% kRate, 1.07 WHIP, and .279 opp wOBA. Detroit has performed quite well on offense as of late (118 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks) and isn’t the pushover you could just plug and play starting pitchers against and expect a strong result. But Garcia has faced plenty of strong offenses this season and has come away with a strong outing more often than not. The Astros will check in just behind the Dodgers with heavy -230 moneyline odds.

Carlos Martinez (RHP) | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.5k | vs. PIT

Yeah, I don’t like this suggestion any more than you do but ya have to figure that at least one of these cheaper pitchers is going to come through with a serviceable performance. Martinez does draw a solid match-up with a Pittsburgh team that is hitting just .232 against RHPs with an 84 wRC+. They’ve been a bit better as of late, but they’re still producing below league average offensive numbers. One of Martinez’s best games of the season also came against the Pirates back on May 2nd when he went eight full shutout innings on 100 pitches and ended with 22.6 DKFP/43 FDFP. He’ll also be taking the mound at home at Busch Stadium which has been the #7 pitcher’s park this season and where Martinez has posted slightly better overall fantasy numbers (though, that is a low bar). The Cardinals have had some significant offensive struggles of their own but they still come in as solid -160 favorites and Pittsburgh currently carries a low 4.1 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  There are plenty of options I could put up here today but I think the most obvious stack targets will be the Blue Jays and Astros. The Twins are also looking pretty appealing today.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jesse Chavez (RHP), ATL

After an 11 day road trip, the Reds simply being back at home, where they average a league leading 6.03 runs/gm, is reason enough to stack ‘em up. Today they’ll face off with a 37-year-old Jesse Chavez, who will be making his first MLB start this season after throwing 20.0 relief innings across 13 appearances in the minor leagues. Chavez should only be expected to toss the first inning or two before handing the ball over to the bottom 10 ranked Braves bullpen. Coming from a Braves fan, a bullpen game is not what we look forward to seeing but the Cincinnati bats should be thrilled.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

Zach Davies has shown some poor reverse splits this season and is allowing a .293 AVG and a .358 wOBA to RHBs with a 1.63 WHIP and just a 13.7% kRate. He’s also had a tough time in road environments where he has accrued a 5.40 ERA, 5.54 xFIP, and .371 opp wOBA. The Dodgers have a plethora of solid right-handed hitters to roll out against Davies and will be more than capable of taking advantage of those poor reverse splits. They’re also getting close to full strength and shouldn’t be rolling out a super watered down lineup that we’ve seen out of them in recent weeks. The Dodgers have been great when playing against RHPs at home this season (124 wRC+, ranks 4th) -- across the last two weeks against RHPs at home, they’re rocking an excellent .368 wOBA and 144 wRC+. Even though they’re in a great spot today, they likely will go under-owned, as many West Coast offenses often do.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

Luis Garcia could very well be the highest-owned pitcher on this slate aside from maybe only Walker Buehler. If you want some significant leverage in GPPs, then perhaps consider these Detroit Tigers. The Tigers come in with a 118 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks (ranks 9th). While there will be some winds blowing in, Comerica Park has produced a ton of extra base hits this season. While he has been solid much of the year, Luis Garcia is due for some regression and actually hasn’t been all that great on the road this season where he sports a 4.03 ERA and 4.31 xFIP. As usual with these “low owned stack that might work out” suggestions, I probably wouldn’t look to go crazy with Detroit bats here… but a three-man Tiger stack could certainly work out against a very chalky Luis Garcia.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. JC Mejia (RHP), CLE

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), TB

1B Joey Votto | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jesse Chavez (RHP), ATL

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Carlos Martinez (RHP), STL

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), DET

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Cody Poteet (RHP), MIA

3B/SS Wander Franco | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Max Kepler | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. JC Mejia (RHP), CLE

OF Akil Baddoo | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

2B/SS Freddy Galvis | DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Anthony Kay (LHP), TOR

1B/2B Michael Chavis | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), TB

OF Trevor Larnach | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. JC Mejia (RHP), CLE

1B/3B Colin Moran | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Carlos Martinez (RHP), STL

OF Myles Straw | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), DET

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

The fact that Vlad Jr. hasn’t homered in three games and has just one over his last eight games is reason enough to hit the “HE’S DUE” alarm. While Toronto’s home games have come at two different ballparks, both are favorable for hitters. Vlad Jr. has hit 13 of his 26 HRs at home this season despite playing 14 fewer home games than road games (29 home, 43 away). Against RHPs at home, he’s hit 12 of those 13 HRs while batting .419 with a .577 wOBA, .512 ISO, 272 wRC+. Absolute Herculean numbers. While he is “slumping” right now (by his standards), the dude has just been unbelievable even in a season where many offensive numbers were hitting historical lows (#StickyStuff). Dean Kremer also allows a huge .257 ISO and 2.33 HR/9 Rate to RHBs. It honestly feels like cheating picking Vlad Jr. as my HR call today, but oh well!

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