Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 6/24 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

• 11:21  Matz & Mets

• 15:35  Yankees Bats

• 18:23  Giolito @ Boston

• 22:07  Jumping on the Braves

• 24:24  Contrarian Spot of the Night

• 28:04  Dahl & Arenado

• 30:25  Betting Lines & HR Calls 

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I hope you guys had a great weekend! A modest seven game Monday slate rolls around for us today and it could be a tricky one to navigate. Overall, top to bottom, pitching is a bit precarious but some amount of risk may need to be taken if you’re looking to pay up for some bats that are in prime spots. Everyone approaches MLB DFS differently, but personally, I won’t be attacking this slate too hard with the bankroll. I still think we’ll see some entertaining games but it just feels like one of those days where some weird nonsense is going to go down.

Today’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

KC @ CLE: Cleveland is really the only trouble spot today. The worst bit of rain rolls through during the ~3 hour time frame that this game is scheduled to play. I’d be surprised if there wasn’t at least some sort of delay with postponement being a legitimate risk. For now, I’ll keep guys from this game in consideration but absolutely check the outlook once we’re closer to first pitch.

ATL @ CHC: Winds blowing out to center at 15 mph will provide a boost to bats. 

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jon Gray (DK: $9.8k, FD: $8.5k) | RHP | COL @ SF

It’s tough to make a case for other high-dollar pitchers who find themselves in difficult match-ups, so paying for someone like Giolito or Kershaw would definitely seem to be the contrarian approach today. The Giants have looked like a respectable MLB offense at times in recent weeks but, after a seven game road trip, they return back home to their very pitcher friendly park. This is obviously a huge park upgrade over Gray’s home turf at Coors Field. Gray has been a pretty solid source of strikeouts and his 25.4% kRate ranks second among pitchers on this slate. With his .322 BABIP, which is on par with his career average, you’re going to likely have to live with a handful of hits given up and probably a couple runs as well. The Rockies are only slight -115 favorites but this game easily carries the lowest total of the night and the Giants have just a 3.5 implied run total.

Eduardo Rodriguez (DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.4k) | LHP | BOS vs. CWS

The White Sox have been really inefficient against lefties on the road this year with a .230 AVG, .277 wOBA, .124 ISO, and 71 wRC+ while striking out 25.3% of the time. Rodriguez has strung together several solid road starts recently but he’s still a safer investment when he takes the mound at home where he averages +6.5 additional DKFP with an impressive 3.02 xFIP and 29.7% kRate. Chicago will be rolling out their ace as ERod’s counterpart, however Boston is still a heavy -170 favorite. He may be chalky but, among pitchers, Rodriguez may be the safest investment on the night.

Adam Plutko (DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k) | RHP | CLE vs. KC

As a preface, remember that this is the one game that carries significant postponement risk for the day, so approach with caution. Also, this is more of a DraftKings play, as that $8,200 price tag on FanDuel is pretty unappealing. CC Sabathia will likely be the most popular pitcher that people pay down for considering he carries a safer floor and there’s no weather threats in New York, so consider this a pivot play. Plutko has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his five starts, which includes facing the Yankees and the Rangers (at GLP). Plutko isn’t a high strikeout guy, with just an 18.6% career kRate but he is doing a solid job at limiting base runners with a 1.12 WHIP. He’s had a problem giving up home runs this season with nine allowed through 27.2 innings, so don’t be shocked if he provides the Royals with a couple meatballs. But overall, Kansas City has been a below average team when facing righties on the road (92 wRC+) and the Indians are pretty solid -165 favorites. If you can swallow the overall risk involved, Plutko could definitely pay off as an SP2 punt on DraftKings.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

New York Yankees vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP, Toronto Blue Jays)

Sanchez has allowed 19 earned runs and five homers in his last 12.2 innings and will now go on the road to take on a Yankees lineup that is pretty terrifying now that they’re pretty much at full strength. On the road, Sanchez has a pretty miserable 6.08 ERA, 5.72 xFIP and 1.80 WHIP with a 13.2% Walk Rate that is nearly as high as his 15.9% strikeout rate. Honestly, pick your poison with who you choose to stack here, but a few guys I’d probably favor are DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez, and Giancarlo Stanton. Didi Gregorious is also a cheap piece of this offense that you could grab, assuming he starts.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Steven Matz (LHP, New York Mets)

Matz has been riding the struggle bus on the road this year where he has a 6.21 ERA, 5.09 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, and a low 18.9% kRate. The last time he pitched in Philly (April 16th), he didn’t even survive one inning after he allowed six earned runs including two homers. He should perform better this go around but if the Phillies force him into another early exit, they’ll see additional at-bats against a Mets bullpen that, over the last month, has a 7.09 ERA, 5.41 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, and 2.14 HR/9 Rate. Scott Kingery, Jay Bruce, and Jean Segura are a few options I’d look to deploy.

Toronto Blue Jays (RHBs) vs. CC Sabathia (LHP, New York Yankees)

If Sabathia ends up being a popular salary saving option, you could gain some leverage by throwing in some Blue Jays exposure. Toronto is still expected to score some runs, with a respectable 4.6 implied total. And on the road against lefties, they’ve been surprisingly strong with a 107 wRC+ (ranks 6th). I’d prefer to stick with the right-handed bats due to Sabathia’s poor splits against them (.384 wOBA, .277 ISO, 2.37 HR/9). Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Randall Grichuk, and Freddy Galvis are some guys to consider. Even if you don’t stack the Blue Jays, Gurriel in particular is an appealing ‘one-off’ option and will be my home run call of the day. 💣

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Jeff McNeil (DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k) | 2B/OF | vs. RHP Zach Eflin

McNeil is running hot from the Mets lead off spot after producing a .370 AVG, .412 wOBA, and .211 ISO over the last month. He will enter tonight with multiple hits in each of his last five games. Eflin struggles considerably more with lefties and McNeil should also get one or two at-bats against a Phillies bullpen that has been terrible as of late. We should expect a strong fantasy floor from McNeil today. Also, I wouldn't worry about him being held out from the Mets' last game, as he was simply given the day off.

Ozzie Albies (DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k) | 2B | vs. LHP Jon Lester

It’d probably be a mistake to not mention anyone from this ATL @ CHC game considering it carries an 11.5 run total and should be a great environment to target hitters. After a bit of a slump, Albies has been back to being a highly productive piece in this surging Braves offense. Since June 7th (16 games), Albies is hitting .365 with a .458 wOBA, .317 ISO, 1.111 OPS with four home runs and 15 RBI. Throughout this season, he has been much stronger against lefties (.370 AVG, .412 wOBA, .149 wRC+) and Lester isn’t a match-up to shy away from, especially considering that Albies is 6-for-6 against him with a home run to boot. Albies may not snag a great spot in the order but he’s been very efficient from the 6/7/8 hole.

Kyle Schwarber (DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k) | OF | vs. RHP Julio Teheran

Going back to this game in Chicago, I think Schwarber is worth a look any time his price is close to $4k/$3k (DK/FD). He’s had a power infused stretch of hitting with eight home runs in the last month. He has also belted baseballs, with an average exit velocity of 98.2 mph against RHPs in the last two weeks (top 95%). And if he gets some solid contact on one today, it can easily exit the park with those 15 mph winds blowing out. Teheran has only given up two home runs to lefties this season but he still provides LHBs with 41.6% Hard Contact, so I’ll take some chances on Schwarber as an affordable lead off bat with a solid chance to go yard.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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