Today's Top DFS Plays & Prop Bets from your #1 Companion for DraftKings, FanDuel, & Yahoo!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Oh, it’s good to be back! Vacation is cool and all but I’ve also missed the daily grind that is MLB DFS. And, of course, I’ve also missed goofing off in the LineStar chat with my fellow degenerate. Big thanks to Roland (@ZeroInDenver) for covering for me while I was out of town! That man loves when I go on vacation, I just know it.

The running theory within the LineStar community is that, on Fridays, it seems as if the baseballs have a little extra juice and carry and little more pop than they do on other days. And while that may not actually be true whatsoever and could simply be explained by Fridays featuring huge slates which lead to more overall home runs… WELCOME BACK TO ANOTHER “JUICED BALLS FRIDAY” SLATE! Let’s go hunt down some dingers (or “dongs,” if that’s your preferred HR nomenclature). There are 14 games lined up on this particular Friday slate so let’s waste no more time and dive right in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There are not many weather issues to worry about on this massive slate but there are still a couple of late start/in-game delay risks -- outside chance of a PPD. Also, except for @NYY, @SD, and @SF, every outdoor game will see temps of 80+ degrees at first pitch.

LAD @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U): Atlanta + summertime = (usually) some sort of a chance for pop-up t-storms. They could end up avoiding trouble altogether, as is often the case with these pop-up storm scenarios, but let’s check the radar closer to lock to be sure. For now, I won’t be avoiding any players from this game.

COL @ MIN (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Pop-up storms could roll through MIN as well but that looks less likely than in ATL. Still, some low-end delay risk. Winds also blowing IN from right at around 13 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.4k | @ MIL

There are some quality arms at the top of DFS pricing today but also some tough match-ups for many of the high-end guys, so it may be a slate where we may want to live in the mid-range and value range. But Manoah is a guy I’d consider spending up on. Before running into the Yankees buzzsaw in his last outing, Manoah was riding a nice streak where eclipsed at least 20 DKFP/39 FDFP in five straight starts, and on the season, he has maintained an excellent 2.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He’s up against a Brewers team that is right at league average against RHPs. Over 90% of Manoah’s pitch mix consists of fastballs (mostly 4-seamers but some sinkers as well) and sliders. Against those pitches, the Brewers have a ho-hum .234 AVG (8th lowest) and a 23.9% kRate (5th highest). Aaron Nola ($10.3k/$10.3k) @ SD is looking like the chalk SP1 on the slate. I don’t hate using him at all, especially if Machado is still out, but Manoah is a worthy pivot off of chalk Nola.

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. PIT

We can expect Springs to be a popular mid-range SP pick today but for good reason. He’s posting a strong 2.00 ERA, 3.25 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 26.8% kRate, and slate-best 13.7% Swinging Strike Rate on the season. And, at home at the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, Springs has come away with a 1.09 ERA in 24.2 IP this season. While Pirates freak shortstop Oneil Cruz can be a problem for any pitcher, there are not many other dangerous bats in this lineup. Against LHPs, the Pirates hold a paltry 84 wRC+ (ranks 28th) with a high 24.3% kRate (3rd highest). The Rays are also the heaviest favorites on the slate at -220.

Rony Garcia (RHP), DET | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.4k | @ ARI

It’s a risky endeavor but if you want extra big bats and need a bottom-of-the-barrel pitcher to throw out, Rony Garcia has the strikeout upside (27.3% kRate) to return value on his low salaries so long as he doesn’t get shelled. While he has a sharp 1.05 WHIP, he’s also giving up a ton of hard contact along with 2.13 HR/9 and the D-backs lineup does have *some* pop to it. 80% of Garcia’s pitches have been 4-seamers and sliders -- the D-backs have just a .209 AVG against those pitches this season (3rd lowest) along with a 25.7% kRate (11th highest).

Also Consider:

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.3k | @ SD

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.3k | @ CLE

Alex Cobb (RHP), SF | DK: $8.3k, FD: $7.6k | vs. CIN

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

It’s hard to hate this spot for the Cards against Kyle Hendricks (5.43 ERA, 4.68 xFIP, 1.72 HR/9) and a bad Cubs bullpen that has been pretty awful lately (L2Wks: 7.55 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 1.82 HR/9). Following a seven-game road trip, the Cardinals return home today where they’ve posted noticeable stronger offensive splits. And while Busch Stadium is not typically viewed as a great hitter’s ballpark, it has ranked #6 in the home run park factor rankings. Hendricks has been extremely bad against LHBs, so it would make sense to favor that side of the plate… but I also wouldn’t go away from RHBs like Goldschmidt and Arenado.

CHC Bullpen Rating: 3/10 (Poor)

Favorite STL Bats: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman | Sneaky Bat: Brendan Donovan

Chicago White Sox vs. Austin Voth (RHP), BAL

After pitching all season out of the bullpen, Voth made his first start of 2022 against the Rays on Sunday and covered 2.2 innings on 41 pitches. My guess is he’ll inch closer to 50-60 pitches tonight before Baltimore goes to some other bullpen arms. Voth has not exactly been great this season as he enters with an 8.39 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, and 1.82 HR/9 Rate across 24.2 IP. The White Sox are still dealing with several injuries but they did recently get Tim Anderson back in the lineup and, despite the injuries, they’ve been producing some excellent offensive numbers. Over the last two weeks, their 140 wRC+ and .362 wOBA both rank second in the MLB and they’re hitting for a league-leading .317 AVG in that span as well. Most of these CWS bats are super affordable as well, which is a major plus.

BAL Bullpen Rating: 5/10 (Average)

Favorite CWS Bats: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Luis Robert | Sneaky Bat: Andrew Vaughn

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

On a 14-game slate, you really don’t have to get too crazy when searching for leverage; there will be many, many offenses that check in at low ownership even if they’re in fairly strong spots. With that said, the Padres will represent some massive leverage against Aaron Nola. Currently, Nola is the highest projected SP on both sites tonight (42% pOwn on DK, 32% pOwn on FD). I get why many will flock to Nola. He’s been extremely solid this year, even better on the road, and the Pads could still be without Machado (and Luke Voit, who is currently listed as day-to-day). Even with Machado missing the last four games, the Padres still have a 128 wRC+ over the past week with a .349 wOBA and .194 ISO. It’s more likely that Nola succeeds rather than fails. But all of these Padres hitters will likely be <3% owned and if they can force Nola into long pitch counts, do moderate damage against him, and get him off the mound early, a downright bad Phillies bullpen could come into play for around half of the innings tonight.

PHI Bullpen Rating: 2/10 (Very Bad)

Favorite SD Bats: Jake Cronenworth, Jurickson Profar, Jorge Alfaro (if they play, Machado/Voit preferred over all those guys except Crone) | Sneaky Bat: Austin Nola (brothers face off!)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

OF Mike Trout | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

SS Carlos Correa | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

SS Tim Anderson | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Austin Voth (RHP), BAL

C William Contreras | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD

C Alejandro Kirk | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Austin Voth (RHP), BAL

1B/OF Andrew Vaughn | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Austin Voth (RHP), BAL

2B Nolan Gorman | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

SS Oneil Cruz | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB

OF Alek Thomas | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Rony Garcia (RHP), DET

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD

OF Riley Greene | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

Hendricks has been giving up the long ball far more often to LHBs (2.52 HR/9) as opposed to RHBs (0.84 HR/9), so Arenado may not be the most likely Cards bat to hit a dinger off of Hendricks tonight. But I do love how Arenado matches up with Hendricks’ pitches. Historically, Arenado has gotten the best of Hendricks -- in 36 PA against the Cubs righty, he has hit .278 with a .358 wOBA, .250 ISO, and has three home runs. Just under 60% of Hendricks’ pitches consist of 4-seamers and sinkers. Against those pitches this season, Arenado has a huge ..361 AVG, .469 wOBA, and .301 ISO next to just a 9.2% kRate. He’s for sure going to be a tough out for Hendricks. That Cubs bullpen has been giving up a ton of HRs as well, so the HR upside will not come to a halt once Hendricks is retired from the mound.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Rony Garcia OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | +110 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units

Garcia will be making his sixth consecutive start for Detroit and he reached a season-high 92 pitches in his most recent outing. He has come away with a strong 27.3% kRate on the season and has hit the over on this prop in four of his last six outings. Garcia does give up too much hard contact which has led to quite a few home runs this season, but the 26-43 Tigers have nothing to lose by pulling him early if he runs into moderate trouble. So, we can look for Contreras to throw around 90 pitches again tonight. Against the D-backs (24.7% kRate vs. RHPs), that should be plenty of time for Garcia to rack up at least five Ks.

Nolan Arenado OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Arenado is my HR pick today as well, so I’m placing a lot of faith in his bat today against Kyle Hendricks and a reeling Cubs bullpen. I’ll pull an excerpt of what I wrote about him in the HR call section: “Just under 60% of Hendricks’ pitches consist of 4-seamers and sinkers. Against those pitches this season, Arenado has a huge ..361 AVG, .469 wOBA, and .301 ISO next to just a 9.2% kRate.” Arenado has hit the over on this prop in five of his last seven games so, even if he doesn’t homer (which I love the +420 odds on his HR prop on FanDuel), he sets up nicely to either record multiple hits or an XBH of some sort. I’ll take this bet at plus money all day.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!