Top MLB DFS Plays 6/23 | Sticky Situations & Wander Hype Day Part II

June 23, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Emotions are already starting to run hot between players, managers, and umps with how the new “sticky stuff” inspections are being handled. We damn near saw Max Scherzer drop trow during a mid-inning inspection (his third of the game) which was instigated by Phillies manager Joe Girardi. These new rules seem far from fine-tuned and if the MLB expected a smooth transition, they were sorely mistaken.

But how about the Wander Franco kid? He wasted no time living up to the hype surrounding him after going 2-for-4 with a home run, double, a walk, and three RBIs in his MLB debut. Given the fact that he’s only $2k/$2.5k on DK/FD, you might legitimately see him hit 80% ownership in GPPs (and near 100% in cash).

We’ll get a 7-game main slate on tap for this evening. On the surface, I’m not overly crazy about the slate from a DFS standpoint, but maybe my mind will change on that later in the day once I start building lineups. If anything, we should be getting some closely contested games tonight as only two teams have greater than -150 moneyline odds. Also, no weather concerns, so that’s great news! Let’s get into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

The forecast is about as quiet as could be today. Three of the seven games are indoors anyway. The four remaining games won’t have any threat of rain, no notable wind impacts, and temperatures won’t be overly cool or overly warm. EZPZ.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Robbie Ray (LHP) | DK: $9.2k, FD: $11k | @ MIA

Preface: It’s another day where pitcher pricing between DK and FD is a bit all over the place on several guys. Ray is one of those pitchers and is a better bargain on DK as the 4th-most expensive option. He is tied with Trevor Bauer as the most expensive arm on FD. Ray could realistically end the day as the highest-scoring DFS pitcher, so he’s still worth considering on both sites.

Ray saw some regression in his last outing but he draws a juicy match-up tonight and also gets a nice park boost as Marlins Park has rated out as the #6 pitcher’s park this season. The Marlins have had a tough time with southpaws this year, hitting just .228 against them with an 86 wRC+ and striking out 28.3% of the time (2nd most). Funny enough, Ray’s 31.5% kRate is tied for the slate lead with both Joe Musgrove and Trevor Bauer. However, his 16.1% Swinging Strike Rate leads all pitchers today and he backs up his K upside with a strong 3.14 xFIP. Ray tends to give up a home run or two in the majority of his starts but has done a nice job overall at mostly limiting those to solo shots. He’ll have a tough pathway to earning a win as he draws a difficult counterpart in Trevor Rogers, but I’d also give Ray the best chance at hitting double-digit strikeouts among today’s starting pitchers.

James Kaprielian (RHP) | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k

Aside from a so-so outing at Coors Field (14.5 DKFP/27 FDFP) and a poor road performance against the Mariners, who he had pitched against just five days earlier, Kaprielian has returned at least 21.1 DKFP/35 FDFP in his five other starts this season. Nothing jumps off the page with Kap, he just tends to find ways to give himself a solid chance at earning a win while throwing, on average, about a strikeout per inning. His 2.84 ERA is certainly respectable, but his 4.69 xFIP does tell us he is due for some legitimate regression. Will that regression hit today? There’s a good chance it won’t. Texas is 26th in the MLB with a 79 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month and they’re hitting just .215 with a .282 wOBA in that same span. When you factor in Kaprielian’s counterpart being the gas can that is Mike Foltynewicz, you have to like Kaprielian’s shot at receiving strong run support while throwing around six effective innings and placing himself in position for a win/QS bonus. With very little in the way of reliable value pitching options today, I’d be happy with anything above 20 DKFP/35 FDFP out of Kap today.

Jose Urquidy (RHP) | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.5k | @ BAL

Urquidy is comparably priced on both sites and stands out as an appealing mid-range arm to roll out. And, honestly, aside from Joe Musgrove at $7,900 on FanDuel, I’d be pretty hesitant to go cheaper than Urquidy today unless you’re building 20+ lineups and looking to go super “risk it for the biscuit” mode with someone like Garrett Richards or Kyle Wright in certain builds.

Urquidy should have the easiest route to earning a victory considering Houston sticks out as massive slate-leading -205 favorites. Urquidy is not the biggest strikeout guy (22.3% kRate) but he does a nice job commanding the zone and limiting free bases with a slate-low 4.4% BB% alongside a flat 1.00 WHIP. His numbers on the road are a tad concerning (4.59 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP) and Baltimore is better, on average, against righties when facing them in their hitter-friendly home ballpark. But Urquidy should be another fairly solid bet to provide six or seven strong innings of work on about 90-100 pitches and position himself for the win/QS bonuses.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  Predictably, the Astros will once again be the go-to team people will stack today. Against Thomas Eshelman, I’m not against it. But a lot of the Houston chalk bombed yesterday, and that could certainly happen again today so feel free to fade Houston or go under-exposed to them in GPPs. Also, while I wish they had more lefty power to roll out against Mike Foltynewicz, the Athletics should garner plenty of attention as well.

New York Mets vs. Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL

Through 68.0 IP in the MLB across four separate seasons, Kyle Wright has never pitched well enough to stick around very long in The Show. He had a couple of nice games last year, but across his MLB career, he has a 6.09 ERA, 5.57 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, 1.85 HR/9 Rate, and his 18.6% kRate is not too much higher than his 14.5% Walk Rate. He’ll be supported by a bottom 10 Braves bullpen that loves to implode late in games. The Mets have been inconsistent on offense all season but I’d look their way today.

New York Yankees vs. Danny Duffy (LHP), KC

Danny Duffy has posted solid numbers this season but he’ll be making his first MLB start since May 12th after working back from a forearm injury. Duffy also hasn’t made any rehab starts in the minors leading up to this game but did throw 40 pitches in a bullpen session this past Friday. He’s likely going to be on a pitch count (somewhere around 50-60 pitches is my guess) and could have some rust to shake off along the way. The Royals have another lackluster bottom 10 bullpen backing up Duffy, so if the good version of the 2021 Yankees decides to show up today, they’ll be one of the more appealing stack options on the slate.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

As mentioned above, while I do like Urquidy as a pitching option today, his road splits are concerning and Camden Yards has been an excellent hitter’s park this season. Baltimore also ranks inside the top 10 offenses at home with a 117 wRC+ and .341 wOBA vs. RHPs over the last month. I’d expect Urquidy to be highly-owned tonight, especially as an SP2 on DraftKings, so you’ll get some solid GPP leverage by stringing some Baltimore bats together.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

1B Matt Olson | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

C Salvador Perez | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Michael King (RHP), NYY

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Thomas Eshelman (RHP), BAL

1B Luke Voit | DK: $4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Danny Duffy (LHP), KC

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), TB

OF Abraham Almonte | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

2B/OF Tony Kemp | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

OF Myles Straw | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Thomas Eshelman (RHP), BAL

1B Ryan O’Hearn | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Michael King (RHP), NYY

SS WANDER FRANCO | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/OF Dominic Smith | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL

Kyle Wright only has 4.2 innings worth of work in the books this season. If we bring in his long term numbers, it’s apparent how much he struggles with lefty bats. In his last 163 LHBs faced, he’s allowing a .312 AVG, .431 wOBA, and .283 ISO. Dominic Smith is off to a relatively sluggish start to the first third of the season, but he does possess a career .223 ISO vs RHPs and has a trio of homers off of righties in the last 20 games. He’s also gone yard once against Kyle Wright in the past (seven plate appearances). If Smith doesn’t launch one against Wright, he wouldn’t be the worst bet to get ahold of one-off of the Braves bullpen. (Also, for what it’s worth if either Bogman or KC Bubba didn’t pick Matt Olson already, I definitely would’ve made him my HR call today.)

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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