Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

🔊 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney - Weekend Edition

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Rise and grind LineStar! Happy Sunday to you all. We have a 10 game main slate today (nine games if you are on FanDuel) that will start at the usual 1:05 EST time. Unlike last night, this slate brings us a good mix of options at pitcher. We have some top tier arms although they are in difficult match ups, a strong mid-tier, and even a value option or two that a case can be made for. We don't have as many games with double-digit totals as yesterday but we should still have plenty of places to look for offense. Let’s take a look at the Vegas perspective:

Weather is pretty quiet today. There’s some rain expected in Kansas City but the forecasts are suggesting it will clear out prior to first pitch. Outside of that, we have a lot of warm weather games as to be expected in mid-June. It will be over 80 degrees in Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington, New York, and Texas (over 90 degrees). Give a boost to the bats in those games.   

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jacob deGrom | DK: $10.5K, FD: $10.6K | RHP | @Chicago Cubs

The price was the first thing that stood out to me here. It’s starting to rise closer to his more typical range but it’s not quite there yet. $1,500 less than Verlander and $500 less than Hamels on DraftKings today? That seems like too wide of a margin in my opinion, especially when you factor in that Verlander has a more difficult to match up today and there's also just no reason for Hamels to be more expensive. Don’t get me wrong, deGrom’s opponent is no walk in the park, but I’d take a less expensive pitcher (of similar talent) against the Cubs over a more expensive pitcher against the Yankees any day. He hasn’t quite found his 2018 form yet that included a 2.78 SIERA, 0.91 WHIP, 32.3% strikeouts, and 5.5% walks. His 2019 hasn’t been terrible, but it’s not what I would consider Cy Young worthy yet either. His SIERA is up to 3.35, the WHIP is up to 1.13, the strikeouts are down to 29.2%, and the walks are up to 5.9%. Those aren’t bad numbers by any means. They just aren’t Jacob deGrom worthy. The most notable difference between this season and last is the hard contact allowed. In 2018, he had an outstanding 26.8% hard contact rate allowed. This year it’s way up to 36.1%. This has resulted in him allowing 12 home runs in 15 starts this season. He allowed 10 home runs all of last year (32 starts). Despite the obvious drop off in production, the good news here has been the month of June. He’s 1-1 in four starts with 35 strikeouts to just two walks in 28 innings pitched. He has a 2.77 SIERA, 0.98 WHIP, and even the hard contact has dropped to 32.4%. He may not quite stack up to his own numbers from last season, but we are getting a nice discount on him, and he’s been pitching better as of late. Difficult match up or not, this is Jacob deGrom, and he’s one of the best options for your money today. 

Mike Soroka | DK: $9.8K, FD: $9.6K | RHP | @Washington

The 28th overall pick in the 2015 draft, Soroka is showing us why he was worthy of a first round pick several years ago. In 12 starts this season, he’s 8-1 with a 2.12 ERA (3.98 SIERA) and 1.07 WHIP. The downside with Soroka is he doesn’t miss a lot of bats, just a 20.1% strikeout rate, which is a little difficult to justify when we are getting into this pricing tier. Ideally, we’d like more upside than that. He makes up for it, however, with a massive 57.3% ground ball rate which helps him keep the ball in play, the runs off the board, and gives him the opportunity to eat innings and continue to rack up wins. The Nationals haven’t been great against right-handed pitching this season. They are 21st in the league with mostly below average numbers including a .310 wOBA, .175 ISO, a .729 OPS, and a 87 wRC+. They’ll strikeout 23.2% of the time, tied for 10th most against righties, and they’ll walk 8.6% of the time. With the five-digit price tag pitchers all in less than ideal spots today, I could see a scenario where fading that group all together makes sense and starting your lineup in this range instead.

Brandon Woodruff | DK: $7.9K, FD: $9.2K | RHP | vs. Cincinnati

There’s a lot to like about Woodruff today. First and foremost, the pricing difference between the two sites needs to be acknowledged. On FanDuel, I like him, but he’s definitely a tougher sell. On DraftKings, however, he’s a steal and by far my favorite value pitcher on the board. He’s taking on a Reds team that is one of the worst in baseball when they are away from home. They are 17-22 on the road this season with a .286 wOBA, .153 ISO, and a 22.9% strikeout rate. This is compared to a 19-17 record at home with a .327 wOBA and a .201 ISO. Cincy also struggles with right-handed pitching, having just a .304 wOBA, .181 ISO, and 24.3% strikeout rate. All of these factors line up very well for Woodruff to have a strong outing. He’s been solid himself with a 8-2 record in 15 starts. He has a 3.66 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP, 28.4% strikeouts, and 6.8% walks. His last time out was his first loss since all the way back on April 10th. Woodruff is pitching very well at the moment, he’s at home against an opponent who struggles on the road, the Reds have one of the lowest implied totals on the board today at 3.6 runs, and the Brewers are comfortable -180 favorites. Woodruff is my favorite pitcher today.   

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Texas Rangers vs Ivan Nova (RHP)

This is only for DraftKings since FanDuel left this game off their main slate but I wanted to talk about it anyway. Ivan Nova’s biggest weakness is left-handed hitting. And what do the Texas Rangers have a lot of? You guessed it, powerful left-handed hitting. Did you see Mazara’s 505 foot bomb on Friday night? Just in case you missed it watch it here. It was the longest home run in the statcast era (last five years). That’s just one example of what the lefties in this lineup can do and tonight they’ll face Nova who has a 5.00 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, only 12% strikeouts (yes, that’s correct) and is allowing a .390 wOBA. Mazara tops my list with his .695 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 games against left-handed pitching. Other notable options include Calhoun (.728 wOBA+ISO), Santana (.753 wOBA+ISO), and Choo (.583 wOBA+ISO). This would be an ideal Joey Gallo spot. It’s too bad he’s still on the IL. Either way, Texas has an implied total of over six runs today.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP)

Speaking of pitchers who are awful against left-handed batters, the Brewers are in almost the exact same situation as the Rangers. Milwaukee is loaded with left-handed power and they are facing DeSclafani who carries a 5.69 xFIP, 1.76 WHIP, 20% strikeouts, and almost 10% walks against lefties into this match up today. His batted ball profile is terrifying: 48.1% fly balls allowed, only 8.3% soft contact, 49.1% hard contact, and a whopping .406 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters. Christian Yelich is, without question, the top bat on the board today. He has a 1.260 OPS, .496 wOBA, .417 ISO, and 53% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Moustakas (.383 wOBA, .298 ISO, 47.5% HH), Grandal (.372 wOBA, .256 ISO, 45.9% HH), and Thames (.359 wOBA, .246 ISO, 46.4% HH) are all in great spots. Travis Shaw is having a rough season by the numbers but he does have an encouraging 44.9% hard hit rate against righties, so nothing says he won’t get a hold of one. Milwaukee is a heavy -185 favorite.

Minnesota Twins vs. Homer Bailey (RHP)

Homer Bailey has been a serviceable pitcher this season and that is nothing short of miraculous. Even still, his numbers suggest he’s somebody we want to stack against and that’s what I plan to do today. He’s facing, arguably, the top offense in baseball in Minnesota. They have a .347 wOBA, .247 ISO, and 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Interestingly, Bailey is struggling more with right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters. He has a 1.63 WHIP, only 18.5% strikeouts, 44.4% hard contact allowed, and a .336 wOBA allowed. Polanco has a 1.013 OPS, .417 wOBA, .277 ISO and looks to be in a great spot today. Cruz (.363 wOBA, .241 ISO), Rosario (.331 wOBA, .263 ISO), Sano (.355 wOBA, .323 ISO), Cron (.339 wOBA, .220 ISO), Schoop (.330 wOBA, .237 ISO), and Garver (.390 wOBA, .337 ISO) all stand out here. Minnesota has a 5.6 implied run total.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Pete Alonso | DK: $4.6K, FD: $4.2K | 1B | vs. Cole Hamels (LHP)

Alonso has three fantasy performances of 21 points (DraftKings scoring) or more in his last five games, yet his price has dropped $800 dollars in the past week. This should create some value for us. He gets a fantastic park shift today going to the very hitter friendly Wrigley Field and he’s taking on a left-handed pitcher. Alonso has a ridiculous .938 wOBA+ISO and a 2.71 FP/PA against left-handed pitching.  

Wilson Ramos | DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.6K | C | vs. Cole Hamels (LHP)

I’m going to stick with the Mets, which admittedly sounds like a terrible idea, but Ramos is another guy standing out in my price model that has a really good shot at a solid ROI. He has a .645 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games against left-handed pitching. In his last 20 games against left-handed pitching, that number goes up to a .893 wOBA+ISO and a 2.96 FP/PA.  It’s hard to ignore those numbers given his price today.  

Jorge Soler | DK: $4.5K, FD: $3.5K | OF | vs. Michael Pineda (RHP)

Soler has been heating up over the past couple of weeks. In his last ten starts, he’s had five double-digit fantasy performances. He has a .427 wOBA, and .371 ISO during that span including four home runs and eight RBI. He’s smashing the baseball with a 50% hard hit rate, four barreled balls, and a 96.2 mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks.  

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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