Top MLB DFS Plays 6/22 | Happy 'Wander Franco Hype Day' 🙌

June 22, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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The young core of MLB talent receives one more extremely notable addition today. Wander Franco, a shortstop from within the Tampa Bay Rays organization and the top overall ranked MLB prospect, will be expected to make his big league debut this evening. In 39 games in triple-A this year, Franco racked up a .315 AVG, .405 wOBA, 148 wRC+ and smacked seven homers with 35 RBIs and five stolen bases. He will be expected to play early and often moving forward. With other young superstars like Vlad Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., and many others making significant impacts early on in their careers, the future is certainly bright for the game of baseball. Now, if only Rob Manfred and the MLB could get out of their own way when it comes to growing the sport and marketing it to younger generations, that would be fantastic.

Alright, a massive 14-game main slate awaits us this evening, so let’s get right into the nitty-gritty…

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

Overall, there should be no significant postponement threats. A few games could have some lingering rain clearing the area around the first pitch. Late starts may be needed, but things look solid after that.

WAS @ PHI: Rain should be gone by the first pitch. They could still need to implement a late start but should see no issues after they get going.

KC @ NYY: A late start seems more likely here but, again, no problems once they get going.

ATL @ NYM: Same deal as the other New York game above.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP) | DK: $10k, $9.5k | @ ARI

The D-Backs ended their 17-game losing streak yesterday… but maybe it’s time they start a new one? They should have their hands full as they face off with Freddy Peralta, who owns a sharp 2.28 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, 35.9% kRate, and .231 opp wOBA. Over the last two weeks, Arizona is hitting just .207 against RHPs with a paltry 60 wRC+, which ranks dead last in the MLB. Maybe their win last night kick-starts them past their massive slump, but I’d be willing to place my chips on Peralta getting the best of Arizona tonight.

Charlie Morton (RHP) | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.3k | @ NYM

If I had to guess, Zack Wheeler, Freddy Peralta, and Lucas Giolito will be the chalk pitchers on the evening. Obviously, those are three studs who should work out well for anyone who opts to pay up. Morton, while riskier, has shown comparable upside as all three of those guys, but will come at a significant discount. Over his last six starts (34.2 IP), Morton has struck out 27.3% of batters while maintaining a 2.86 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, .187 opp AVG, and .243 opp wOBA. One of those six starts came against these Mets back on May 19th when he needed only 79 pitches to go six full innings while allowing just two hits, one earned run, and struck out eight -- good for 26.3 DKFP/43 FDFP. He recently threw a season high 112 pitches in his last start and should be expected to push for around 95-100 pitches tonight. If he can channel that same energy and effectiveness he had against the Mets his last time out, ya have to love the fantasy point per dollar potential here. The Mets offense is trending downward as of late and they’re hitting .213 vs. RHPs over the last couple of weeks.

Tarik Skubal (LHP) | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.7k | vs. STL

Early in the season, Skubal was someone who you would look to stack hitters against. Recently, not so much. The 24-year-old has been absolutely dealing as of late. In his last six starts (33.0 IP), Skubal has posted an elite 36.0% kRate with a 3.00 ERA and 3.01 xFIP. He does still give up a decent amount of home runs (1.4 HR/9 Rate last six games) and his 1.33 WHIP in that span isn’t great, but it’s about league average. Overall, as far as fantasy scoring goes, Skubal's increased strikeout rate has more than made up for the hits and runs he has allowed. The match-up stands out as a good one as well. St. Louis is dead last with a .204 AVG vs. LHPs over the last month and they have only a .277 wOBA, .129 ISO, 77 wRC+, and 27.7% kRate in that span as well. Will Skubal be a safe investment? I can’t say that he will. But I also don’t think that we can ignore that strikeout upside either. For $6,600 on DK, he makes for a very appealing SP2 candidate.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  The Astros continue to rake and should also continue to maintain their “top stack” status. Aside from the Houston bats, I believe ownership will be fairly spread out on this massive 14-game slate.

Oakland Athletics (RHBs) vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

The right-handed heavy A’s will find themselves in a strong spot tonight against a lefty in Taylor Hearn. On the year, Oakland ranks 5th with a 111 wRC+ vs. LHPs and they’re getting a nice park upgrade going from the Coliseum out to Globe Life Field. Hearns is not a pitcher to shy away from. He puts a ton of runners on base (1.56 WHIP) and has been taken deep eight times this year in just 35.1 IP (2.04 HR/9). He’s particularly awful against RHBs to whom he allows a .404 wOBA, 1.82 WHIP, and 2.86 HR/9. Feel free to stack that side of the plate when targeting A’s bats.

Seattle Mariners vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Freeland (and most pitchers) can get a pass for not putting up the best of numbers inside Coors Field… but Freeland has been nearly as awful on the road as he has when pitching in Colorado. He hasn’t pitched a ton this season (mostly because he gets pulled after getting blown up early), but Freeland has accrued a 9.58 ERA, 6.11 xFIP, 2.27 WHIP, and a .512 opp wOBA (!). He’s allowing a lofty 13.2% Barrel% and n 20.2 IP, he has been homered against nine times equating to an absurd 3.92 HR/9 Rate. If the Mariners do what most teams have done and knock Freeland out of the game after about four innings, he’ll be backed up by a bad Rockies bullpen for the remainder of the game. Seattle has been playing very solid baseball as of late, winning seven of their last eight games and boasting a 120 wRC+ over the last week. Three and four-man Seattle stacks look mighty appealing this evening.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

If we’re looking at super recent data, no offense in baseball has been as dominant as the Giants. In the last week, they’re hitting .324 as a team with a .439 wOBA and 181 wRC+. Andrew Heaney is a good enough pitcher to where most people won’t go out of their way to stack against him so I’d expect San Fran to continue to go overlooked this evening. Angel Stadium has been a great hitter’s park this season and when pitching at home, Heaney has posted a very ‘meh’ 5.04 ERA and 4.06 xFIP. Despite smacking the cover off the ball lately, look for most (or all) of these Giants bats to come in at well under 10% ownership.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), SF

OF Joc Pederson | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

OF Ramon Laureano | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Taylor Hearn (RHP), TEX

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL

2B/SS Jazz Chisholm Jr. | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/OF Tony Kemp | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Taylor Hearn (RHP), TEX

OF Chas McCormick | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL

1B/3B Jeimer Candelario | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), STL

1B/2B/3B Ty France | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Akil Baddoo | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), STL

SS Wander Franco | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Ramon Laureano | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Taylor Hearn (RHP), TEX

Oakland righty bats will have a great chance to go deep today for as long as Hearn is on the mound. He’s allowing a 2.86 HR/9 Rate to RHBs along with a .404 wOBA, .275 ISO, 29.2% HR/FB%, and a 39.1% HardHit%. Laureano has been excellent against lefty pitching this season, hitting .348 with a .434 wOBA, and .242 ISO. He could potentially be hitting clean-up tonight and will have some solid home run upside at the hitter-friendly Globe Life Field out in Texas.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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