Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

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Offense anyone? Welcome to another Saturday edition of the Daily Ledger. Hope you all had a good week. This is a small and rather ugly five game slate sitting in front of us tonight. In fact, four of the five games today have a 10.5 total or higher. There's no elite pitching, although a couple of guys on the hill tonight are trying to make cases for themselves based on this season's performances (they are still a long way away career wise). It's a mess at the bottom tier tonight, as we have three players with less than 25 innings pitched taking the mound. You’re more or less throwing darts at the cheap pitchers tonight and hoping the one you land on does something right. Tonight’s slate is not for you if you have a weak stomach. There’s a lot of risk and we’ll need to take some shots on a few spots and see what happens. Hedging will be your best friend, as you could really make an argument for and against just about anyone on this slate. Let’s check out the Vegas lines:

There are a couple quick things worth pointing out from a weather standpoint. First, it’s going to be 82 degrees in Washington with two pitchers who have yet to find their 2018 magic. This should provide a boost to the hitters (hence the 10.5 total). In New York, the wind blowing out right field at 10 mph should give a boost to hitters, especially considering how short right-field is in that stadium. This is another game with a 10.5 total. Texas, per usual, is going to be around 90 degrees at first pitch. This game has an 11 total. There should be a lot of offense tonight if you couldn’t tell.   

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Hyun-Jin Ryu | DK: $11.5K, FD: $10.6K | LHP | vs. Colorado

The argument for Ryu tonight is simple. He’s been lights out so far this season. A 3.25 SIERA, an insane 0.76 WHIP, 24.8% strikeouts and just 1% walks. For those of you scoring at home that’s 85 strikeouts to just five walks in 93 innings pitched this season. He’s gone at least six innings in 10 consecutive starts dating back to 4/20. In eight of those 10 starts, he went at least seven innings. He hasn’t lost a start since that April 20th game in Milwaukee. He was on a streak of six consecutive wins before two consecutive no decisions in his last two starts. He’s never allowed more than two runs this season and has allowed just one earned run in his past four starts. Those are elite stats. The downside is you can make the case that his luck will eventually run out. The .251 BABIP is not sustainable and he has a difficult match up today against the Rockies who have crushed left-handed pitching this season, including a .346 wOBA and a .200 ISO. One of their best left-handed mashers, however, is Trevor Story who was placed on IL this week, which is definitely a boost to Ryu’s outlook. Nolan Arenado was in the lineup last night but he’s not 100% at the moment either. Ryu is not bulletproof by any means but he’s been pretty close this season. And while this is a difficult draw, it’s a bit easier than usual with the Rockies missing Story. I like Ryu at home today where he’s won six of seven starts.  

Lance Lynn | DK: $10.1K, FD: $9.5K | RHP | vs. Chicago White Sox

The argument against Lance Lynn is he’s freaking Lance Lynn. I’ve never been overly impressed with him. In 2018 he had a 4.26 SIERA and 1.59 WHIP. He was horrendous against lefties including a 5.10 xFIP, 1.93 WHIP and nearly as many walks (13.6%) as strikeouts (15.9%). This game is also in Texas, which is not a place I typically go looking for starting pitching. But on a small slate, our options are pretty limited. The argument for Lance Lynn is what we’ve seen from him so far this season. I highly recommend this article I found on FanGraphs by Craig Edwards yesterday if you want a deep dive on him but just in case, I’ll sum it up for you. Lynn leads all American League pitchers in wins above replacement (WAR) this season at 3.2. He is second in the majors behind none other than Max Scherzer (4.2) and ahead of guys like Ryu (3.1), Sale (2.8), Cole (2.7), Berrios (2.6), Montas (2.6 – would have been impressive until we found out he was doping yesterday), Morton (2.5), deGrom (2.5), Odorizzi (2.4), and Strasburg (2.4). That’s some pretty solid company for a guy who’s been bouncing around the league struggling to keep a job the past few seasons. In 2019, he has a 3.87 SIERA and a much improved 1.29 WHIP. Left-handed batters are still his Achilles heel, where he has a 4.68 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, and only 19.4% strikeouts. Against right-handed hitters, he’s borderline elite with a 3.05 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, and a massive 32.8% strikeout rate. Similar to the aforementioned Ryu, Lynn is not a lock to perform. Chicago can go fairly left-handed heavy. So if you’re planning to use Lynn, I would at least give yourself a little exposure to some White Sox bats tonight. However, it’s hard to argue with his results this season, the White Sox have not hit right-handed pitching well (despite their ability to go lefty heavy), and the Rangers are comfortable -190 favorites.

Anibal Sanchez | DK: $6.9K, FD: $7.6K | RHP | vs. Atlanta

The entire value tier tonight is just a total shot in the dark. Of everyone available to us, Sanchez is the one I feel like we can make the strongest case for. The total body of work this season is far from glamorous. He has a SIERA of 5.00, a 1.40 WHIP, a pretty average 20.4% strikeout rate, and a near 10% walk rate. There are a couple of positive things to note, however. The first is his 20% soft contact rate allowed and only 29% hard contact rate allowed. The second is his recent performances. Sanchez is 3-0 in his last four starts since getting pulled early with an injury on 5/16 and skipping his next turn in the rotation. During this stretch, he has 18 strikeouts to just three walks in 23.1 innings pitched with an outstanding 1.94 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. The bad news is there is absolutely some luck in these numbers, as that 1.94 ERA is accompanied by a 4.26 SIERA and just a .194 BABIP indicating some upcoming regression is a strong possibility. Despite the luck, Sanchez did have arguably his best start of the season against this same Atlanta team on 5/29, throwing six innings of one hit ball while allowing zero runs, getting seven strikeouts, and walking just one batter. The floor here is very low but the ceiling is high enough considering the price and the other options we have to work with. Buyer beware, if he's popular, either fade completely or make sure you have Braves exposure in other lineups. I do think he's the best option in the value tier but that doesn't mean much considering the other available pitchers today.   

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Peter Lambert (RHP)

This is the only game without a double-digit total tonight. On a five game slate where it’s really important to differentiate yourself in tournaments, going after this powerful Dodgers offense that may get less attention than it should could be a smart strategy. Lambert’s major league career got off to an impressive start when he went seven strong, allowing just four hits, one run, and striking out nine in his debut against the Cubs in Coors Field. His next time out, against the same Cubs, he pitched well, not nearly as impressive but good enough to get the win, going five innings, allowing just three hits and one earned run but only striking out three this time. So far so good right? Last time out, three innings pitched, nine hits, eight earned runs, and just three strikeouts against the Padres. Ouch. Welcome back to earth. After that start against San Diego, you have to figure his confidence is a bit shot and now he’ll go on the road to face a Dodgers team that is second in the majors against right-handed pitching with a .346 wOBA, .211 ISO, 116 wRC+ and only strikes out 19.9% of the time. Bellinger (1.146 OPS, .458 wOBA, 52.1% hard-hits vs RHP), Muncy (.901 OPS, .376 wOBA, .255 ISO vs RHP), Seager (.934 OPS, .386 wOBA, .253 ISO vs. RHP), and Pederson (.989 OPS, .402 wOBA, .388 ISO vs RHP) are the lefties from hell that should give Lambert all kinds of trouble. The Dodgers have an implied total of 5.1 runs and are massive -258 favorites in this one.

Washington Nationals vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP)

What is going on with Foltynewicz this season? His 2018 stat line: 3.77 SIERA, 1.08 WHIP, 27.2% strikeouts, and a .264 wOBA allowed. 2019: 4.78 SIERA, 1.34 WHIP, 20.1% strikeouts, and a .355 wOBA allowed. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact this season (43.7%) and over 40% fly balls, which has resulted in 15 home runs allowed in just 10 starts. He’s been bad to both sides of the plate so I don’t see a need to prioritize one over the other. The players standing out to me for this game are Rendon (1.026 OPS, 52.5% hard-hits vs RHP), Turner (.343 wOBA, .250 ISO vs RHP), Soto (.385 wOBA, .213 ISO vs RHP), and Kendrick (.387 wOBA, .259 ISO vs RHP). The Nationals have an implied total of 5.6 runs.

New York Yankees vs. Wade Miley (LHP)

The Yankees are once again healthy ladies and gentlemen and this lineup is officially terrifying. I'm from Boston, so by default, I have to hate the Yankees. But as a baseball fan, I obviously respect them and there is no denying the potential of this lineup. Miley is far from the worst pitcher on the board today. In fact, he’s been rather impressive with a 6-4 record. He dominates left-handed hitters with a 2.98 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP and a 27.4% strikeout rate. He’s weak against right-handed hitters, however, and he’s going to see a lot of them today. Miley owns a 4.58 xFIP with only 18.6% strikeouts against righties. Judge made his return to the lineup last night. The sample is small given all the time he missed but we know what this guy is capable of. He has a .979 OPS, .445 wOBA, and 44.4% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. Encarnacion (still sounds weird to say he’s a Yankee) has a .373 wOBA and .313 ISO against lefties. Sanchez is by far my favorite option on this team today (and possibly on the slate). His ridiculous numbers against south paws this season include a 1.005 OPS, .405 wOBA, .370 ISO, and 57.1% hard-hit rate. Voit (.342 wOBA, .200 ISO) and LeMahieu (.384 wOBA) are both viable options as well. Giancarlo Stanton has barely any at-bats against lefties this year but has a career .423 wOBA, .336 ISO, and 46.2% hard-hit rate.  

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Yordan Alvarez | DK: $4.2K, FD: $4K | OF | vs. Masahiro Tanaka (RHP)

The price still isn’t doing Alvarez justice. In fact, it dropped quite a bit this week, getting as high as $4.8K on DraftKings before coming back down to $4.2K today. He’s played in ten games since being called up and has scored double-digit fantasy points in half of those. He has a .966 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching with a 60% hard contact rate and an average exit velocity of 90.1 mph. He’s in Yankee Stadium today, which has an incredibly short porch in right field, making it very friendly to left-handed hitting and the wind is expected to be blowing out to right at around 10 mph in case he needed any extra help. I’m not looking to stack against Tanaka but someone like Alvarez could make a nice one-off piece.  

Nolan Arenado | DK: $4.2K, FD: $4.1K | 3B | vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LHP)

I fully acknowledge that Arenado has gone a bit cold right now. It’s difficult to tell if this is due to his bruised toe or if he’s just not seeing the ball well at the moment. In his last 20 games against left-handed pitching, he has a very bad .346 wOBA+ISO and a -0.60 FP/PA Delta. His price has now dropped down to the point where there is some value here. We are talking about a guy who was $5.6K on DraftKings a week ago and now he’s $4.2K. Cold streak or not, that has to get our attention. The last 20 games are ugly, but in his last 150 games against left-handed pitching he has a .741 wOBA+ISO. There’s some BvP sample here that’s worth noting. In 16 plate appearances against Ryu, Arenado has a 1.724 wOBA+ISO with three home runs and seven RBI.  

DJ LeMahieu | DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.9K | 2B/3B | vs. Wade Miley (LHP)

The former National League batting champion is really starting to find his groove on top of this New York Yankees order. He has five double-digit fantasy performances in his last six starts, averaging 16.75 fantasy points per game during that span. In his last 20 games against left-handed pitching, he has a .636 wOBA+ISO and a 2.91 FP/PA. In 13 plate appearances against Miley, he has a solid .372 wOBA. The Yankees have one of the highest implied run totals on the board for this slate.  

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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