Top MLB DFS Plays 6/21 | The Official 'Sticky Substance' Ban Begins Today

June 21, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Welcome back! I hope all the LineStar dads out there enjoyed your Father’s Day weekend. Monday will provide us with a humble six-game main slate to tap into. As a reminder, the league’s enforcement on pitchers using foreign ‘sticky’ substances officially begins today. It’s quite possible that most (or all) pitchers who were using something have already ditched their substance of choice in recent weeks. However, now that punishments and suspensions will be dealt out moving forward, it will be interesting to see if offensive numbers continue to climb while league-wide spin rates decline. Whether it’s related to the foreign substance crackdown or not, there seemed to be a ton of multi-HR performances over the weekend, including Kyle Schwarber tying an MLB record with five HRs in a two-game span. He's just one of many sluggers who has seemed to have gotten into a groove lately.

A three-game series between the Dodgers and Padres is also starting up tonight. For anyone who missed the games between these two teams back in April, they were all highly entertaining. If you’re able to stay up and watch those games over the next few days, I recommend it! Alright, let’s get into this evening’s games and some DFS plays!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

HOU @ BAL: This is the main game to keep an eye on this evening. Scattered storms will be in the area with the highest chance of significant coverage coming from about 8 ET to 10 ET (first pitch scheduled for 7:05 ET). If there is no lightning close to the park and it’s not overly heavy rain, perhaps they can play through anything that makes its way over the ballpark. OR they just opt to go with a lengthy delay until everything is cleared up late. Overall, I think it is reasonable to assume they’ll get all nine innings in, but a PPD is not off the table. Starting pitchers are definitely a bit riskier here as well.

CLE @ CHC: 10-15 mph winds blowing in from left/center.

CIN @ MIN: 10 mph winds blowing out to center/right.

MIL @ ARI: Roof at Chase Field is scheduled to be CLOSED.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Mahle (RHP) | DK: $9.8k, FD: $8.8k | @ MIN

Overall, for a six-game slate, the pitching selection is decent. I don’t love ‘em, don’t hate ‘em… it could definitely be worse. We’ll start with Mahle who has been trending upward pretty significantly lately. Over his last five games, his kRate is up to 31.9% while his WHIP is down to 0.78 and he has posted a 2.12 ERA. He’s scoring 26 DKFPPG/42.8 FDFPPG during that span as well. Also, Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati has rated out as the #1 hitter’s park this season, so it is no surprise to see he has fared considerably better when pitching on the road like he will be tonight. The Twins are not going to be the easiest opponent to contend with but they’re not exactly crushing lately either. Their 93 wRC+, .235 AVG, .306 wOBA vs. RHPs the last two weeks rank inside the bottom third of the league. Health is a concern for them as well with Mitch Garver still on the IL while Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson are currently listed as day-to-day.

Aaron Civale (RHP) | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8k | @ CHC

Vegas is expecting a sneaky pitcher’s duel in this game as they’re currently pinning just a 7.0 implied run total here. I initially wanted to highlight Alzolay, but the fact that he is coming off of the IL (blister on throwing hand) and hasn’t started in two weeks gives me some pause there… but if it’s announced later in the day that he’ll have no pitch restrictions, I’d keep him in mind. Civale isn’t a major strikeout guy and only has a 19.3% kRate on the year. However, he did throw a career high 11 Ks ten days ago (vs. SEA) and the Cubs provide an opposing pitcher with plenty of strikeouts themselves -- 25.8% kRate vs. RHPs on the season (5th most), 29.2% kRate vs. RHPs last two weeks (2nd most). Civale has also maintained a low 1.06 WHIP and will typically throw 100+ pitches and go deep into games. He’s thrown at least six full innings in 11-of-14 starts this season. Wrigley Field will also see 10-15 mph winds blowing in from left field tonight so pitchers get a little extra bump there.

Kyle Gibson (RHP) | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.9k | vs. OAK

Here is a list of starting pitchers who have a lower ERA than Kyle Gibson (2.09 ERA) this season: Jacob deGrom, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, Trevor Rodgers, Brandon Woodruff, and Lance Lynn. That’s it! Sure, he is getting some luck along the way as his 4.02 xFIP checks in at 44th among qualifying SPs. But he’s finding ways to simply get it done and Gibson has now posted quality starts in 11 of his 14 outings while rocking a strong 1.03 WHIP and .251 opp wOBA. The Athletics won’t be pushovers (105 wRC+ vs. RHPs, ranks 9th) but Gibson has been shutting down top 10 offenses all season. Given his ability to routinely notch 15-20 DKFP, his $6,300 price tag on DraftKings makes him an especially appealing SP2 option, though almost certainly a chalky one on this small slate.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ It depends on how the weather shakes out, but if it looks like the game will play nine innings, the Houston Astros easily set up as the go-to stack today. Their bats are white hot, they’ll be playing in a great hitter’s park, and they’ll be up against a below average starter in Keegan Akin.

Cincinnati Reds vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

I trust the Reds stack much more when they’re playing at home where they average a league-best 6.03 runs/gm… which is a full two runs better than what they average on the road (4.03 runs/gm). But the clear appeal for stacking Cincy bats is the fact that they’ll be up against JA Happ who has a terrible 5.62 xFIP on the year and has allowed a .366 opp wOBA. Happ will be supported by an average Twins bullpen. There will also be 10 mph winds blowing out to center field at Target Field tonight.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

Okay, Brett Anderson did pitch seven near-perfect innings in his last outing -- I don’t know how you guys feel, but I believe the phrase “even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while” can apply to that performance. Arizona isn’t exactly a good or even an average offense and they’re normally pretty awful against lefties so, who knows, maybe Anderson finds some success once again tonight. But the D-backs have shown more potential at home this season when stepping into the batter’s box at the hitter-friendly Chase Field where they average just under five runs per game. Anderson has allowed a slate-high 92.5 mph average exit velocity and is giving up a 50.3% HardHit%. Anderson’s expected opponent wOBA is also at .404 and he tends to struggle more in road starts. It’s a small slate so options are limited, but Arizona has some decent stack appeal this evening.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK

I have plenty of respect for Montas and nearly highlighted him in the pitcher's section above. The Rangers are by no means a good offense either so I would not be surprised if Montas pieces together yet another strong outing. But Texas is of course listed in this section for a reason… nobody is really going to look to roster ‘em in lineups even when just 12 teams are in play. It’s a relatively small sample size (23.0 IP) but Montas has posted a poor 4.88 xFIP on the road this season along with just a 16.5% kRate. The following Rangers have at least a 100 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season and would be where I’d keep my primary focus if you’re taking a gamble on a Texas stack: Adolis Garcia, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nate Lowe, Joey Gallo, and Willie Calhoun.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

1B Matt Olson | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), TEX

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

2B/OF Ketel Marte | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

OF Nick Castellanos | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

1B/OF Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Aristides Aquino | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.1k | vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

1B/3B Asdrubal Cabrera | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

OF Chas McCormick | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

2B/OF Tony Kemp | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), TEX

3B Abraham Toro | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Carlos Correa | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

Correa has smacked out eight homers over the last month while racking up a .503 wOBA and .360 ISO in that span. Over the last week, he has hit three home runs in just 17 at-bats which has led to an absurd .633 wOBA and .647 ISO. Houston has a league-leading 26 home runs over the last 14 days so they were a pretty easy team to target when searching for a home run call. They’ll take on a subpar starter in Keegan Akin and a mediocre Orioles bullpen at Camden Yards, a ballpark that has accounted for the second-highest home run factor this season. As a reminder, do remember to check on the forecast leading up to the first pitch as there are some weather concerns here.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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