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- Top MLB DFS Plays 6/21 | Knock Friday's Slate Out of the Park
Top MLB DFS Plays 6/21 | Knock Friday's Slate Out of the Park
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Happy Friday to everyone! I hope you guys are ready for this doozy of a slate as we get set to kick off the weekend. High powered hitting and elite arms are in play all over the place. Let’s see what we can cook up today!
Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:
Weather Report ⛅
LAA @ STL: As of this writing, this is the only game with any significant chance of delay or postponement (delay is far more likely). The worst of the scattered storms in the area today will come through ahead of first pitch but may hang around longer. This may lead to a late start but I’d imagine they will do what they can to get this game in. Players from this one will stay in play for the moment.
MIN @ KC: Some storms in the area today but they should be gone by game time. 10-15 mph winds but mostly side-to-side. Bats still get a bit of a bump in case those winds shift outward; also, it’ll be near 90 degrees and humid.
CWS @ TEX: Your usual hot and humid weather out in Texas. The winds blowing in at 15+ mph isn’t cause for concern.
HOU @ NYY: Winds blowing out to right at 10+ mph. Bump to power hitters, especially lefties.
MIA @ PHI: Winds blowing in from left at 10+ mph. Bit of a bump to pitchers.
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Matthew Boyd (DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k) | RHP | DET @ CLE
Honestly, on a 14-game slate, enough value can be found with hitters to where you can pretty comfortably work Chris Sale into your lineup. But Matthew Boyd is an intriguing GPP pivot at the top as the priciest underdog of the day. The Indians offense has been popping off a bit in recent weeks but over the last month, they’ve been below average against lefty pitching. Since May 20th, against LHPs (435 plate appearances) they’re hitting for just a .236 AVG, .307 wOBA, with an 88 wRC+. They are avoiding a lot of strikeouts with just a 15.9% kRate, however. Boyd held Cleveland to one earned run when he faced them back on April 10th in an eventual 4-1 win. He’s also pitched better on the road with a very impressive 2.69 xFIP, 35.8% kRate, and is limiting homers with a 0.69 HR/9 Rate. Decent upside here for a great pitcher who’ll check in at lower ownership.
Aaron Nola (DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k) | RHP | PHI vs. MIA
Everyone is probably well-versed in the “take the pitcher facing Miami” strategy that’s been popular all season. Occasionally it backfires when the Marlins decide to look like a mid-level MLB club instead of a triple-A squad but, more often than not, attacking them works. Nola has taken a step back from last year up to this point but he has occasionally shown flashes of his 2018 form. His true skill is better reflected by his 4.30 SIERA as opposed to his 4.89 ERA. Still not a great mark, but it shows that he is due for a bit of positive regression. Nola’s strikeouts have been decent, with a 25.1% kRate, and he’s been considerably better at home and it reflects in his fantasy output: 17.1 DK FPPG home, 11 DK FPPG away. I could run through all of Miami’s stats against RHPs, but let me just save us both some time by simply saying “they’re all terrible.” Feel free to go underweight on him in tournaments but Nola should be a perfectly fine mid-range option in all other formats. The Phillies are the second heaviest favorite of the day (-220) and Miami has just a 3.5 implied run total.
Joe Musgrove (DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.5k) | RHP | PIT vs. SD
As many of these punt pitchers go, this is primarily a DraftKings play if you’re feeling a bit risky and want to pay up for more bats. There’s no easy way to predict Musgrove this season. He may bomb miserably or score as many fantasy points as guys who cost $3k-$5k more than him. One positive he’ll have going today is a match-up with a very right-handed heavy Padres lineup. Musgrove has held RHBs to a .209 AVG, .297 wOBA, .142 ISO, 1.17 WHIP, and a fairly decent 22.5% kRate. Very respectable numbers all around. The Padres’ 26.4% kRate against RHPs is the second highest in the league with pretty below average offensive numbers across the board. Musgrove had a pretty solid outing against the Padres a month ago when he picked up a win with 17.3 DKFP/32 FDFP. I’d take a similar result today and be happy with it, especially at his DraftKings price tag.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Michael Wacha (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)
The Angels have managed to notch at least five runs for nine of their last twelve games and I’d imagine they keep the offensive momentum rolling tonight. Wacha has sported a miserable 7.36 ERA and .405 wOBA allowed at home this season. At home, he’s also walking 12.3% of batters and allowing a .330 AVG resulting in a 1.91 WHIP. Considering he surrenders a .430 wOBA and .300 ISO to RHBs, it could be another tremendous day for Mike Trout. Elsewhere, I’d look for whichever two guys join him in the outfield between Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, and Justin Upton. Tommy La Stella should go back to hitting lead off and would be a solid bet to produce as well.
Boston Red Sox vs. Trent Thornton (RHP, Toronto Blue Jays)
The Red Sox return home to Fenway to face righty Trent Thornton. Boston’s team .270 batting average and .351 OBP against RHPs leads all of baseball. This year, Thornton has been able to either dial it in or get knocked around -- not much in between. I believe the Red Sox can knock him around today. Thornton allows a .367 wOBA and .243 ISO to lefty bats so I’d probably look to target Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers and pair them with either a hot hitting Mookie Betts or drop back in the order (and down in salary) by going with Brock Holt.
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Pitchers
With John Means injured and no clear candidate to take on a full starters workload, this is set to be a Orioles bullpen game. Minor league call-up Sean Gilmartin is predicted to be the primary long reliever but he may only pitch three innings, if that. He has decent numbers in triple-A this year but nothing worth shying away from. It’s well known that the Orioles bullpen has been awful pretty much all year. They have a 6.28 ERA, 5.00 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP and allow a .270 AVG and 1.91 HR/9. I’d consider most of this Mariners lineup but the preferred options would have to be Mallex Smith, Domingo Santana, and Daniel Vogelbach. JP Crawford has been productive as well, will likely bat second, and is super cheap.
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Danny Santana (DK: $5k, FD: $2.9k) | 2B/OF | vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez
Well… with that price, FanDuel is definitely not quick to make adjustments, huh? Santana has been a force as of late. Since June 8th (12 games) he’s batting .405 with a .485 wOBA, .381 ISO, and 1.208 OPS. He has three home runs in that stretch, all coming within the last four games. He’ll face Reynaldo Lopez who has a terrible 7.28 ERA on the road and a 2.10 HR/9 Rate on the year. Santana is a switch hitter who does much better from the left side of the plate when going against righties. Considering this is by far the best hitting environment today, if you’re not stacking this game up, you’ll probably want a piece. I’ll call for Santana to stay hot and go yard again tonight. 💣
Mike Yastrzemski (DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k) | OF | vs. RHP Taylor Clarke
Yastrzemksi may be due to get bumped back up in the Giants order after having back-to-back games with home runs. He’s been a rare bright spot for an otherwise miserable offense. He’ll take his .342 wOBA and .208 ISO and put it up against Taylor Clarke, who has given up four home runs to lefties this year in just 15 innings while allowing a .398 wOBA, .288 ISO. Yastrzemski could also get an added boost from stepping into the box at Chase Field, which is a great hitters park.
Martin Maldonado (DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k) | C | vs. LHP Martin Perez
Maldonado stands out as a solid salary saver tonight. He’s produced eight hits in his last six games, four of those were doubles and he threw in a home run to boot. In 14 plate appearances against Martin Perez, Maldonado is batting .583. It won’t take much to pay off his salary tonight.
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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!
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