Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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A second consecutive 10-gamer falls onto the menu today, except this one seems to be a little less ‘noisy.’ There’s not as much to be concerned with in the way of weather (still a couple games to watch out for). Also, there is no situation where you have to worry about whether or not to play the day’s top ace coming in with a busted nose and black eye. We may see the general strategy for this slate revolve around the bats because, top to bottom, pitching is pretty weak. This thought is backed up by the fact that, currently, four out of ten games carry totals of 10+ runs and that is without Coors Field or Globe Life Park in play.

Today’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

PHI @ WAS: Not a lot of storm coverage is projected here but the threat of postponement is present if things don’t completely clear up after a while. This is in Washington too, so we know we can’t always trust them to make the right call when it comes to potential weather impacted games. Monitor closely.

HOU @ NYY: Rain may linger around New York for a bit after first pitch is scheduled. Postponement seems very unlikely but a delay of some sort may be in play.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jake Odorizzi (DK: $10.8k, FD: $10k) | RHP | MIN @ KC

If you’re paying up for a pitcher, it’s not much of a stretch to say you can save a few bucks by dropping down from Morton to Odorizzi and expect similar, or better, fantasy outputs. Kansas City has been a bottom five team against RHPs in the last month: .291 wOBA (26th), .145 ISO (28th), 79 wRC+ (27th). Odorizzi has shown a nice ceiling this year aided by his 28.3% kRate and 1.01 WHIP while allowing a sub-.100 ISO to both sides of the plate. This will be back-to-back starts against the Royals for Odorizzi. While he didn’t exactly pitch a gem last game that resulted in 18.1 DKFP/33 FDFP, I’d expect that performance to essentially be his floor heading into tonight. Despite playing on the road, the Twins will be the largest favorite of the evening (-200).

Dylan Bundy (DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.3k) | RHP | BAL @ SEA

Honestly, it feels almost sacrilegious backing an Orioles pitcher, but Bundy has been pretty solid as of late after amassing 17+ DKFP/33+ FDFP in five of his last eight starts while allowing three earned runs or fewer in all eight. The three games that he didn’t hit that fantasy point threshold were all in tough spots (@ TEX, vs. NYY, vs. LAA). His strikeout numbers are decent, with a 24.2% kRate on the year and, while he is giving up 1.80 HR/9, he’s limiting Hard Contact to 28%. Bundy’s fantasy output and strikeout rate have also improved moderately when he’s been on the road. The Mariners aren’t the greatest match-up but we also have to remember that they shipped their best power bat, Edwin Encarnacion, out to the Yankees several days ago. It’s not a slam dunk play here but ownership should be relatively low and there’s a window for Bundy to put up a strong performance. 

Zac Gallen (DK: $7.3k, FD: $7k) | RHP | MIA @ STL

There’s always some inherent risk in rolling out a pitcher making his MLB debut but one look at Gallen’s minor league numbers will ease some of your concerns. In 14 starts in triple-A this year, Gallen has a 9-1 record with a basement level 1.77 ERA with a 0.71 WHIP, 33.6% kRate, and 5.1% Walk Rate. He’s been holding batters to a .152 AVG and limiting home runs with a 0.99 HR/9 Rate. The Cardinals offense has looked lost at times in recent weeks. Over the last month, they’ve been about the worst team against right-handed pitchers with a .212 AVG (30th), .276 wOBA (29th), .137 ISO (29th), and 69 wRC+ (30th). One interesting note from a narrative perspective; Gallen was drafted by the Cardinals in 2016 before being traded to the Marlins in a package deal for Marcell Ozuna in 2017. I’ll be interested in seeing if he can transfer his skills seamlessly over to the Majors.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Clayton Richard (LHP - Toronto Blue Jays)

These Angels bats have been popping. They’ve scored at least five runs in eight of their last eleven games. The Angels strikeout at a lower rate than any other team in baseball (16.8%). This is a bad recipe for Richard, who has the lowest kRate on the slate (12.6%). Richard is also posting an extremely poor 1.77 WHIP and 1.77 HR/9 Rate. He hasn’t lasted longer than five innings in any of his five starts, so expect to see plenty of the Blue Jays bullpen that has been very lackluster as of late. Mike Trout may be near 50% owned, even in GPPs, but it’d be crazy to bet against him with the way he is swinging the bat. You can probably make a case for playing most hitters in this lineup but a couple others I would target would be Shohei Ohtani and Kole Calhoun (lefty on lefty match-ups be damned).

Washington Nationals vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP - Philadelphia Phillies)

The Nats hung seven runs on Pivetta in just 3.2 innings back on April 10th and they’ll look to have similar success tonight. Pivetta strung together a couple of strong outings recently, but on the year, he is giving up a .360+ wOBA and .240+ ISO to both sides of the plate. Collectively, the Nationals team has a .418 AVG, .476 OBP, and seven home runs against Pivetta in 91 at-bats. If Washington forces another early exit for Pivetta, they’ll see additional pitches from a Phillies bullpen that has posted a 6.48 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and 2.74 HR/9 Rate over the last month. If you’re not looking to stack the Nationals, I think Juan Soto makes for one of the better one-off hitters of the day. Decent chance for Rendon to also be worth his salary in this one as well and I don’t mind going back to the well with Matt Adams either. Remember to monitor weather for this game.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP - Seattle Mariners)

LeBlanc will take the mound behind opener Gerson Bautista tonight and he’ll look to pitch the majority of innings. LeBlanc has been pretty terrible against RHBs this year, allowing a .371 wOBA, .245 ISO, and is striking out just 13.3% of righty batters. The Orioles will likely be deploying eight righties in their lineup. Even for a low-end offense like Baltimore’s, there is room for production here. You can string together a pretty cheap stack with these guys as well. Trey Mancini, Pedro Severino, and Renato Nunez would be the preferred options in the heart of this order.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Max Kepler (DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.1k) | OF | vs. RHP Glenn Sparkman

Kepler has been swinging a hot bat lately, rocking a .410 AVG, .552 wOBA, and .407 ISO in the last week to go along with a trio of dingers. One of those home runs came against Sparkman just five days ago. Sparkman is a major liability against lefty hitters, evidenced by the .390 wOBA, .263 ISO, and 50% Hard Contact Rate that he provides them with. Another productive outing should be in order for Kepler as he bats from the lead off spot.

Max Muncy (DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k) | 1B/2B | vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner

Many may remember the not-so-friendly words that were shared between these two when Muncy blasted a solo shot off of Bumgarner into McCovey Cove on June 9th. Ultimately, that ended up being the only run scored for the game, so MadBum picked up the loss there. Now we have the rematch taking place in Dodger Stadium and you know the home crowd will be aware of the situation. From a statistical perspective, Bumgarner is only allowing a .219 wOBA and .130 ISO to LHBs but Muncy has been crushing LHPs to the tune of a .419 wOBA and .280 ISO on 46.6% Hard Contact. I’m down to chase the drama here, so while there are plenty other guys in better spots that I could call my shot for, I’ll put Muncy as my home run call of the night. 💣

#ForTheDrama

Danny Jansen (DK: $2.2k, FD: $2k) | C | vs. LHP Jose Suarez

Purely a straight punt play here considering that getting higher overall quality bats is going to take priority tonight. You have to save salary somewhere and Jansen is basically free. He has an adequate .345 OBP versus lefty pitchers this season and is a pretty average offensive contributor with a 98 wRC+. Jose Suarez is a young 21-year-old southpaw who hasn’t seen a ton of action at the professional level but he has traditional splits, so he struggles more with RHBs (like Jansen). Honestly, anything more than a hit and a run or RBI from Jansen and I’ll be thrilled considering it’ll help me pay up for guys like Trout, Yelich, Rizzo, etc.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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