By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Well, would ya look at that? We actually have a non-bogus Thursday evening main slate on the schedule for a second consecutive week! It’s not a massive slate and weather does threaten a couple of games but, for now, depending on what site you play on, there will be either a six or seven-game slate to dig into.

The FanDuel main slate will include the two 6:40 ET games and total seven games. The FD slate will NOT feature the second game of the LAA/NYY doubleheader.

The DraftKings main slate will include the LAA/NYY game two but NOT the two 6:40 ET games, bringing its total to six games with a 7:05 ET start.

It’s always a bit of a headache when both slates don’t line up but our main focus in the newsletter will fall on the five mutually shared games, though some other DK or FD-specific plays may be mentioned. Let’s get to it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

DraftKings Main Slate

FanDuel Main Slate

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

The two worrisome spots today will be in the SEA @ BAL game and the second game of the LAA @ NYY doubleheader. Only folks playing the DraftKings main slate will have to worry about the latter match-up. We’ll need to keep an eye on both forecasts leading up to lock.

SEA @ BAL (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Most of the rain is expected before the game but there will still be a moderately high risk of storms bleeding into the early-to-middle innings. I’d look out for a possible late start here (or a mid-game delay if they’re able to start up in dry-ish conditions) and, depending on how long they may have to wait to play, a postponement possibility remains on the table.

LAA @ NYY - Game 2 (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Somewhat similar to BAL weather in that the rain chances are at their highest before the game and into the early-to-middle innings. So, a potential late start could be in order or they may opt to postpone once again.

Note: For now, I’ll *cautiously* keep players from both of these games within DFS consideration.

Update: The outlook on both of these games seems to have improved since I began writing today's newsletter. There is still some delay risk, but both games are likely to play nine innings tonight.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sean Manaea (LHP), SD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.2k | @ MIL

In nine starts this season, Manaea has had only two poor outings and that came against the Dodgers and on the road against the Giants. Outside of those games, he has had a floor of 15.6 DKFP/31 FDFP. For a ~$10k pitcher, we want a performance worthy of around 25 DKFP/45 FDFP but Manaea could deliver that today. He leads all pitchers on the slate with a 26.4% kRate and 13.5% Swinging Strike Rate while posting a low 1.11 WHIP and a solid 3.58 xFIP. The Brewers have been a plus offense against RHPs this season but they’ve been a bottom-of-the-barrel team when facing off with southpaws. Against LHPs, the Brewers have hit only .209 (ranks last) with an 84 wRC+ (27th) and a high 24.0% kRate (7th highest). Manaea has averaged 101.4 pitches/gm over his last five starts so his leash is about as long as any starter in the MLB. He has surrendered at least three earned runs in six consecutive starts but if he can limit the run damage against a team that struggles against lefties, then he’s a clear candidate to end the slate as the highest-scoring pitcher.

Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.8k | vs. NYM

It’ll be a difficult match-up with a hot Mets offense but Gonsolin has been on fire as well. Over his last five starts (28.0 IP), Gonsolin has accounted for a 1.93 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, and 0.79 WHIP, with a 30.1% kRate. Opponents are hitting just .149 against him in that stretch and he has stranded 89.9% of base runners. As you might expect, the Mets are one of the top offenses against RHPs, and their 122 wRC+ ranks 2nd in the MLB, just barely behind the Dodgers (123 wRC+). They’re also notoriously difficult to strikeout and have only an 18.7% kRate against righties. After being limited to around 75-80 pitches in his early season starts, Gonsolin has thrown at least 90 pitches while covering six full innings in three consecutive games, so ya love to see that. After getting swept by the Pirates in embarrassing fashion at home, the Dodgers will look for some redemption. They’ll check in as heavy -175 home favorites tonight while the Mets hold a slate-low 3.8 implied run total.

Keegan Thompson (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.7k | vs. STL

There is not much to like in the value pitching department today but Thompson could be worth some consideration. The majority of his appearances across 40.0 IP this season have been out of the bullpen in long relief, but he has three starts in his last four games. Most recently, Thompson reached a season high of 77 pitches thrown across five innings against the White Sox this past Saturday. On the year, Thompson has maintained a slate-best 1.58 ERA and a strong 1.03 WHIP, though he may be due for a touch of regression given his 3.75 xFIP and 3.40 SIERA (which are still respectable figures). He has a slightly above average 22.7% kRate and forces plenty of groundball outs (53.4% GB%). While the Cardinals do not strike out often (19.2% kRate vs. RHPs), they’re a very average overall offense with a 101 wRC+ vs. RHPs (ranks 13th). Of course, they do have Paul Goldschmidt within their lineup, who is arguably the hottest hitter in baseball. But the hope here is for Thompson to come through with about five innings of steady pitching while avoiding the big ‘blow up inning’ and racking up about four or five Ks along the way. Given his low DFS salaries, that’d be enough to return some nice value today.

Also Consider:

*Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY | DK: $9.3k, FD: N/A | vs. LAA

Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.1k | vs. SD

*DK main slate only + weather concerns.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

Other Stacks to Consider

Baltimore Orioles vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

Reminder: There are weather concerns in this game.

They’re far from the most consistent offense but the O’s are playing well overall as of late and have an impressive 141 wRC+, .365 team wOBA, and .224 team ISO over the last week. They’re constantly one of the most affordable DFS stack options around and they’ve been winning folks some GPPs lately. Flexen allows a high amount of hard contact and his 43.8% HardHit% ranks dead last among today’s starters. He has also struggled when pitching on the road this season. In 25.1 IP in away games, he has posted a 4.97 ERA, 5.50 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, and is striking out just 16.1% of batters while giving up 1.78 HR/9. Seattle’s bullpen is decent but far from a lockdown unit. As long as the weather allows for this game to be played today, the O’s are setting up as a nice non-Coors stack option on this slate.

Favorite BAL Bats: Austin Hays, Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle | Sneaky Bat: Adley Rutschman

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

Perhaps it’s a good time to buy low on some Dodgers bats after they’ve averaged only 3.6 runs/gm over their last five. I use “buy low” loosely because the main Dodgers bats are still going to eat up a major chunk of salary and it’s safe to assume that most people would rather go to one of the Coors teams if they’re paying up (and the ATL bats didn’t get much of a “Coors salary bump” on DraftKings to begin with). Everyone knows the potential the Dodgers bats have so you don’t need me to tell you that they’re a talented team. While Mets righty Taijuan Walker is a solid starter who is heading into this game with a 2.83 ERA, he is also overdue for a visit from the regression monster given his considerably higher 4.50 xFIP and 4.91 SIERA. The Mets bullpen is one of the best in the league and could bail out Walker if he gets into any significant trouble. But this is a huge series between two teams who sit 1st (NYM, 35-17) and 2nd (LAD, 33-17) in the National League standings so expect both sides to be locked in tonight. The Dodgers offense has been more stout at home where they’re averaging 5.61 runs/gm.

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman | Sneaky Bat: Edwin Rios

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

The Cubs will face off with a young lefty who will be making just his third start in the majors. The jury is still out on Matthew Liberatore. He struggled in his first career start against the Pirates on May 21st (4.2 IP, 7 H, 4 BB, 4 ER, 3 K) but bounced back in his second start when he pitched five scoreless two-hit innings against the Brewers last Saturday. It is only a 9.2 IP sample size, but Liberatore is forcing only a 4.4% Swinging Strike Rate with a 4.88 xFIP. His numbers in Triple-A this year were decent but not spectacular by any stretch. And, much like his first start against Pittsburgh, he’s back to taking the mound on the road in a hostile environment. The Cubs are also decent against lefties and they’ve been particularly good against southpaws in the last two weeks where they have a .353 team wOBA, .207 team ISO, and a 125 wRC+. Strikeouts are a big issue for the Cubs offense but if Liberatore continues to force such a low SwStr%, that can only bode well for Chicago. The Cardinals bullpen also has a low 20.0% kRate (4th lowest) with a 4.16 xFIP (7th highest).

Favorite CHC Bats: Christopher Morel, Willson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom | Sneaky Bat: Nico Hoerner

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Keegan Thompson (RHP), CHC

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.5k, FD: N/A | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B Ty France | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

OF Austin Hays | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

2B/OF Christopher Morel | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

1B Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

SS Nico Hoerner | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

1B Luke Voit | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Taylor Trammel | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C William Contreras | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

William Contreras is not an everyday starter for the Braves but I’m currently assuming he’ll be in the lineup tonight once it’s eventually released. In somewhat limited opportunities, Contreras is hitting .302 on the season and seven of his 19 hits have gone for home runs. Five of his six hits against LHPs have gone for extra bases (three 2B, two HR) and, while that is a small sample size, he currently holds a .316 AVG, .516 wOBA, and .474 ISO against southpaws. He gets the obvious Coors Field bump as well today. When pitching at home this season, Gomber is allowing a 1.93 HR/9 Rate to RHBs which includes a 30.8% HR/FB Rate. A flyball off the powerful bat of Contreras is very likely to leave the park today.

Update: Welllll, just as I sent this newsletter out, the Braves lineup was released and, sadly, William Contreras will not be starting today. I'll switch my HR call to....

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Willson Contreras OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +100 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

The hot-hitting Willson Contreras is worth some prop bet consideration today. He enters this game riding an eight-game hit streak. He has multiple hits in three straight games and has hit the over on this prop in five of his last seven. Much like his brother, Willson Contreras is also racking up the XBHs against lefty pitching this season. He is 13-for-42 (.310) against LHPs on the season and eight of those 13 hits have gone for extra bases (three 2B, one 3B, and four HR). The even money odds on Contreras getting at least two bases today look great to me.

Christopher Morel OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases | +550 (DraftKings) | 1.0 Unit

We go to another Cubbie with this second prop, albeit a more risky one. Predicting stolen bases is more difficult than predicting a guy to homer, but these +550 odds for Morel to steal a bag in this game represent too much value to pass up. Morel has settled in very nicely to his role as the Cubs lead-off man and he has successfully stolen a base in five of his last seven games. He clearly has the green light to go for a steal whenever he gets on base and it doesn’t hurt that an inexperienced starter will be taking the mound on the road for St. Louis this evening.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!