Top MLB DFS Plays 6/2 | High-Scoring Games Incoming

June 02, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

An intriguing mid-sized eight game main slate makes its way to us this evening. The first thing you may notice about this slate: pitching is not the best. Some of the better pitchers have difficult match-ups, Walker Buehler is out there but he’s just not flashing much ‘fantasy point per dollar’ upside, Jon Lester is inexplicably priced at $9,100 on DraftKings, and we may very well see a rookie making his second career start come away as the highest-owned pitcher on the slate. BUT a crumby day in the pitching department means there are a healthy number of offenses that find themselves in promising positions. It may be a good night to bet on a few overs…

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

MIN @ BAL: Low-end chance they’ll see a few sprinkles here. Nothing that should warrant a PPD or even a delay. Winds blowing OUT to LF at 10 mph.

MIA @ TOR: This is the only game with any remotely significant weather concerns on the slate (and remember, they’re back at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY). The game should start dry and most of the game should remain that way. However, rain could move in across the later innings and gets heavier later into the evening. The expectation is that they’ll finish nine full innings and just play through some potential light rain late before the nastier stuff moves in.

WAS @ ATL: Low chance of a random pop-up shower.

BOS @ HOU: Roof at Minute Maid Park will be CLOSED.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Alek Manoah (RHP) | DK: $8.2k, FD: $10k | vs. MIA

Well… it certainly didn’t take long for Manoah to get priced up. The Blue Jays top pitching prospect looked like the real deal in his MLB debut which came last Thursday against the Yankees. He gave up just two hits, two walks, zero earned runs, and struck out seven across six innings and 88 pitches. The only knock going against him today is obviously the lack of sample sizes. Even his minor league numbers are across a combined 35.0 innings going back to 2019. However, everything is pointing to this guy having a bright future which also happens to include a ton of K upside. He gets an easier opponent in his second career MLB start as the Marlins check in at 25th against RHPs with an 86 wRC+. Their 26.4% kRate against righties is also the 5th highest in the league. He’s a more attractive option on DK considering his $10k price tag on FD makes him the most expensive pitcher on the slate. However, Manoah does have a more than decent chance at ending the day as the slate’s highest-scoring pitcher. If you want to target “safer” options among the day’s pricier pitchers, look towards Walker Buehler ($10.6k/$9.7k) or Sean Manaea ($9.6k/$8.5k).

Framber Valdez (LHP) | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7k | vs. BOS

Valdez was activated off of the IL last week after recovering from a fractured ring finger he sustained in spring training. In his season debut against the Padres last Friday, he threw 72 pitches across four solid innings of work where he allowed four total base runners and one earned run while notching a strikeout per inning. The Astros will be cautious with him as he builds up his arm strength so it will likely be another couple of weeks or so before his pitch count nears 100. But if he can near about 80-85 pitches today, he could return value at these mid-range salaries. He was excellent in 2020 when he boasted a 2.94 xFIP alongside a massive 60.0% Ground Ball Rate. Valdez has a career 63.0% GB% which could help him go further into a game even on a moderate pitch restriction and he’s going to typically average about a strikeout per inning along the way. There is quite a bit of risk here, and I’d only use Valdez as a contrarian GPP option. The Red Sox won’t be an easy opponent to shut down but they have scored three runs or less in five of their last seven games. Boston also has the 10th highest ground ball rate versus LHPs (45.7%) this season, which should work in Valdez’s favor.

Shane McClanahan (LHP) | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.1k | @ NYY

I know it is a lot to ask from Tampa Bay, who is notorious for being ultra-cautious with their starters’ pitch counts, but I’d love for them to start letting McClanahan run deeper into games. McClanahan hasn’t thrown more than 80 pitches/5.1 innings in any of his six starts this season, but he’s posting very strong numbers in this 2021 campaign: 3.29 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 29.6% kRate, 17.7% SwStr%, 1.13 WHIP, and he’s hurling a fastball that routinely resides in the high-90s. The Yankees have not been great against lefties this season (94 wRC+, ranks 20th). If he can manage to get to about 85-90 pitches, McClanahan could end the day as the top “fantasy point per dollar” play at the position. It’s a big “if” though.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ Obligatory “Coors Field bats” -- Rangers & Rockies. The Twins and Braves would be the two other top teams to target today.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Carlos Martinez (RHP), STL

The Dodgers offense is back in a bit of a funk right now but they still have the power to shell anyone they go up against. Martinez is still due for some significant regression as his 4.92 xFIP ranks out as the worst mark among the slate’s starters. He’s allowing just a .279 wOBA this season but his expected wOBA (aka xwOBA) sits at .357. Martinez has been getting very lucky with a .232 BABIP (compared to a .298 career BABIP) so, again, regression is coming at some point. He’ll be supported by a Cardinals bullpen that has a league-worst 4.94 xFIP and 14.6% Walk Rate. With most ownership going towards the four teams listed above (Rangers/Rockies/Twins/Braves), I imagine the Dodgers will continue to go a bit overlooked but the stack upside is always there.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Randy Dobnak (RHP), MIN

The O’s will find themselves in a solid spot today against Randy Dobnak who has a slate-worst 6.49 ERA… though he has been getting very unlucky, evidenced by his 3.66 xFIP. Regardless, he is allowing a huge amount of power and has given up a 58.9% HardHit% this season along with a massive .390 xwOBA. Camden Yards ranks 7th this season in adjusted run factor and 2nd in an adjusted home run factor. With 10 mph winds blowing out to left field, I believe we see several baseballs go over the fence for both offenses in this game.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA

Pablo Lopez has been a highly serviceable starter for the Marlins but I don’t see much love heading his way today. Conversely, no one is really talking up the Blue Jays despite the fact that they’ve been one of the best offenses in recent weeks. Over the last 14 days, their 132 wRC+ ranks 1st in baseball and they’re hitting .283 as a team while striking out just 20.5% of the time. Toronto will have their work cut out for them against Lopez, but they’re likely to carry low ownership despite the high amount of run/home run-scoring potential they typically possess.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Jon Lester (LHP), WAS

Acuna just posted one of the biggest fantasy scores of the season last night, so this feels like we’re chasing points a tad. But… also, this is Ronald Acuna Jr. we’re talking about here (great analysis, I know). When he’s healthy, his ceiling is off the charts. Jon Lester has struggled mightily against RHBs this season: 5.89 ERA, .385 wOBA, 1.69 WHIP. He’ll have his work cut out for him trying to lock down the Braves lead-off man today.

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Pretty much just home run hunting here with Gallo out at Coors Field. The Rangers hold a 5.8 implied run total today and Gallo will check-in at 4th or 5th in the order. He should have some high leverage at-bats with several RBI opportunities today.

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Tucker has been a super steady fantasy asset as of late. Since May 1st (27 games), he is hitting .314 with a .391 OBP, .409 wOBA, .265 ISO, with 14 XBH (seven 2B, one 3B, six HR). All of that has equated to a 170 wRC+. His salaries remain super affordable and ideally, he’ll be slotted in towards the top half of the order tonight.

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

2B/OF Josh Harrison | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), ATL

1B/2B/3B Ty France | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), OAK

3B/OF Brock Holt | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B/SS Freddy Galvis | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Randy Dobnak (RHP), MIN

Dobnak has been awful against lefty hitters this season, allowing a massive .395 wOBA, .277 ISO, 3.48 HR/9, and a 30.8% HR/FB%. Galvis’ actual batting average isn’t pretty, but he has knocked out seven homers over the last month and has produced a .205 ISO against RHPs this season. With the solid hitting conditions at Camden Yards, I’ll look for Galvis to send one out of the park today.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.