Top MLB DFS Plays 6/19 | Tricky Wednesday Decisions

June 19, 2019

Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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We turn our focus onto this ten-game Wednesday slate and there are some tough choices to make, particularly on the mound. At the time of this writing, the day’s top ace, Max Scherzer, is not a 100% sure-fire bet to even start (or see a full workload) as he’s dealing with a busted nose and black eye. Keep an eye (heh) on updates surrounding him. Emerging ace, Lucas Giolito, is in a tricky match-up with the Cubs on the road and is playing the riskiest game of the evening as far as weather is concerned. There are also a couple guys making starts coming out of a stint on the injured list. Ultimately, it seems like a day to spread out your exposure pretty wide unless you find yourself feeling super confident in two or three guys. It's also another pretty noisy weather day, so let's hop right to it.

Today’s match-ups with implied totals & moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

CHW @ CHC: They’re going to have to play this game mostly in the rain or not at all. Light/moderate rain moves in early on and isn’t expected to clear up as the game goes on. I don’t have the best feeling about this one but, for now, I’ll keep these players in consideration for the sake of the newsletter.

MIA @ STL: Things could get pretty tricky here as well. Very possible a delay occurs but it’s difficult to say whether that will be a late start or an in-game delay. We’ll just have to see how the forecast looks closer to first pitch.

PHI @ WAS: Rain in the area once again in DC but it doesn’t seem like as risky of a scenario as the last couple of days have been. (Then again, you never know what Washington will do.)

DET @ PIT: Scattered showers around. Potential for delay. Very unlikely for postponement.

CLE @ TEX: Many days, a pop-up storm is often a threat to pass over Globe Life Park. This is one of those days. Not a major threat but see what the actual weather guys have to say here closer to first pitch.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Zack Greinke (DK: $9k, FD: $9.4k) | RHP | ARI vs. COL

The Rockies didn’t exactly struggle on the road in Arizona yesterday but they’ll face a tougher test against Greinke and we should see their road struggles show themselves once again. On the year, they’re a bottom five offense in most meaningful offensive categories (AVG, wOBA, OBP, wRC+) and strikeout at the sixth highest rate with a 25.6% kRate. Greinke has been one of the more consistent starters in baseball with really just two dud performances in fifteen starts. He isn’t posting elite strikeout numbers with his 23.7% kRate but he does an excellent job at limiting baserunners with a 0.88 WHIP -- the best mark on the slate. There are certainly guys that carry more risk/reward upside but anything below a 20 DKFP/35 FDFP performance from Greinke tonight would be surprising.

Andrew Heaney (DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.6k) | LHP | LAA @ TOR

Perhaps he'll be popular, but if not, Heaney appears to be a nice pivot towards the top of pitcher pricing as he’ll face off with Toronto, likely the easiest match-up he’s had to date. This is, of course, going to be only his fifth start of the season, so his sample sizes aren’t nearly as large as most pitchers'. But despite only tossing two strikeouts against the Rays in his last game out, he is still rocking a 34.1% kRate on the year. The Blue Jays have scored two or fewer runs in eight of their last twelve games and on the year they carry the lowest batting average and OBP in the league at .222/.287, as well as the sixth highest strikeout rate at 24.6%. Their 11.7% Swinging Strike Rate should pair well for Heaney and his elite 16.2% SwStr%. Backed up by a solid offense, the Angels are healthy -163 favorites and I’d expect this to be able to pitch through at least six innings in this one.

Max Fried (DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.8k) | LHP | ATL vs. NYM

Fried has looked pretty shaky across his last four starts but his DFS prices have dropped to the basement and he’s been a bit better at home. In 40.2 home innings, he’s posted a respectable 3.54 ERA, 3.44 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP and holding opponents to a .240 AVG/.290 wOBA. The Mets are actually one of the better teams against southpaws (116 wRC+, ranks 5th) but they fare worse on the road (98 wRC+) and strikeout 27.2% of the time. When looking at pitchers’ statcast numbers for the last month, you’ll notice that Fried top the slate with an average distance of just 188 feet while producing 22.7% Soft Contact and a 50.8% Ground Ball Rate. He could be a great value SP2 for tournaments and the Braves are solid -150 home favorites.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Globe Life Park Notice: I could probably stop writing these by now but Cleveland (5.8 implied runs) at Texas (5.2 implied runs) are, by default, two top stacks for the day that don’t really need to be detailed. It’s going to be your typical hot and humid day out in Arlington.

Atlanta Braves vs. Steven Matz (LHP, New York Mets)

Matz allows a .200+ ISO to both sides of the plate and he has had his fair share of struggles on the road this year. His road ERA sits at 5.79 alongside a .365 wOBA, 1.53 WHIP, and 2.76 HR/9 Rate. He’s given up 13 home runs this year, 10 of those on the road in 3.1 fewer innings pitched. After the Mets put an abrupt halt to the Braves hot run yesterday, I’d think a bounce back is in order. You can roll with the two studs towards the top of the order with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman. I’d also look at two guys who have shown immense power versus lefties with Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies. I think at least a couple of these guys go yard tonight but Riley will be my home run call for the evening. 💣

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jordan Zimmerman (RHP, Detroit Tigers)

The Pirates have been a sneaky solid offense as of late, particularly against right-handed pitching. Over the last month, Pittsburgh has a 113 wRC+ against righties (ranks 7th), a .292 AVG (2nd), .351 OBP (3rd), and they don’t strikeout much with an 18.7% kRate (2nd lowest). Zimmerman will be making his first start in nearly two months as he returns from an elbow injury and the outlook for him doesn’t look all that great. In his triple-A rehab start last Thursday, he pitched 4.2 innings, striking out six, but giving up four earned runs including a pair of homers. Josh Bell is the clear cornerstone of a Pirates stack but I’d also consider guys like Bryan Reynolds and Starlin Marte. Most of this offense saw their DFS salaries drop since yesterday, especially on DraftKings.

Los Angeles Dodgers (RHBs) vs. Drew Pomeranz (LHP, San Francisco Giants)

It’s never a bad idea to gain some exposure to some Dodger righties when they get a shot at a bad lefty pitcher. Their DFS prices have typically stayed pretty cheap and that’s the case once again today on both sites. You can certainly keep Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy in play, considering they can crush any pitcher despite LvR or LvL match-ups. But for a budget stack, I’d look at right-handed hitters Kike Hernandez, Justin Turner, and Chris Taylor.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Pete Alonso (DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k) | 1B | vs. LHP Max Fried

Alonso was one of the ‘slate breakers’ last night after going 4-for-4 with a homer, two doubles, two walks, and three RBI. The offensive ROTY candidate has a massive .464 wOBA, .470 ISO against LHPs this year on an otherworldly 61.5% Hard Contact and 48.7% Fly Ball Rate. Fried hasn’t been a complete slouch against righties but he gives up a moderately high .342 wOBA, .180 ISO, and 37.1% Hard Contact. If you’re not punting Fried at SP2, I’d definitely take a piece of Alonso in a one-off scenario. I’d imagine he’s pretty much even money to send one deep tonight.

Matt Adams (DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k) | 1B | vs. RHP Jake Arrieta

If you’re looking to go cheaper at first base, I’d consider Matt Adams -- who I’ve been waiting to play against Arrieta for two days now. Arrieta has pretty extreme splits, especially when it comes to power given up, as he allows LHBs (like Adams) a .392 wOBA, .238 ISO. Of his 14 homers allowed, 10 have been at the hands of lefties in 27 fewer batters faced. Adams has eight of his nine dingers against righties with his .284 ISO and 25.8% HR/FB Rate.

Jackie Bradley Jr. (DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k) | OF | vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

For a punt play, I think you could do much worse than JBJ, who has gotten hot recently. Over the last month against RHPs (82 plate appearances) he is hitting for a .398 wOBA, .329 ISO with 11 XBH (five doubles, six homers). Gibson is a solid pitcher but he has traditional splits, so against lefties this season, he’s allowing a .326 wOBA, .195 ISO, and a 24.1% HR/FB Rate. It’s far from a slam dunk play but at the very least I think Bradley won’t give ya a goose egg.

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