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- Top MLB DFS Plays 6/18 | Trouble in Washington Once Again
Top MLB DFS Plays 6/18 | Trouble in Washington Once Again
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Time to get ready for the typical full Tuesday slate! I won’t waste much time on the intro but there are several weather issues to track today -- conditions in Washington lead the way on the 'concern-o-meter.' If you played MLB DFS yesterday, you saw how poorly mismanaged the Nats handled their game, which ultimately could have played. Wellp… it looks like we have round two tonight!
Today’s games with moneylines and implied totals:
Weather Report ⛅
PHI @ WAS: They’re in a flash flood watch again and there could be multiple bands of rain that pass over the stadium. Some sort of delay seems pretty likely. I’ll probably exclude mentioning players from this game for the newsletter’s purposes, largely because it’s tough to trust Washington, but this game could certainly end up playing.
DET @ PIT: Less threat of rain later into the evening. Could see a late start but, overall, it seems they should get this game in.
NYM @ ATL: Scattered storms make a delay somewhat likely, slight chance of postponement. Checking storm coverage in the area closer to first pitch will provide us with a much better idea of how it’ll play out.
TB @ NYY: The worst bit of rain should clear by first pitch. Delay possible, postponement unlikely.
HOU @ CIN: They should mostly be contending with scattered showers here. Delay chances are decent just because one of those smaller storms could run over the stadium for a bit.
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Justin Verlander (DK: $11.9k, FD: $12k) | RHP | HOU @ CIN
You’re of course paying a premium for Verlander but, as we saw in his last start, his strikeout potential is virtually unmatched most days. On the season, he has a 32.8% kRate and his strikeouts are only going up as the season progresses. With a 1.52 HR/9 Rate, Verlander is very prone to giving up a solo shot or two. Other than that, hardly anyone can get on base against him and his 0.73 WHIP and .151 opponent batting average. The Reds are a very below average offense against RHPs with a 80 wRC+ (ranks 26th) and they strikeout plenty with a 24.2% kRate. On a 15 game slate, I don’t think he is a must play, especially if you’re only rolling out one or two lineups, but you can’t find a safer investment from a floor perspective.
Julio Teheran (DK: $9.5k, FD: $8.2k) | RHP | ATL vs. NYM
Teheran has been excellent, allowing no more than one earned run in eight consecutive starts. He has a 1.85 ERA at home this season and had a strong start against the Mets earlier this year that resulted in 22.7 DKFP/43 FDFP. The Mets roster is hitting for a .203 AVG against him in 222 career at-bats with 60 strikeouts. His 21.7% kRate decreases some of his appeal for tournaments on DraftKings but he could still be worth some exposure in all formats at his FanDuel price.
Jack Flaherty (DK: $8.7k, FD: $8k) | RHP | STL vs. MIA
I imagine many people will roll with Flaherty tonight and I wouldn’t blame them. Outside of the extremely positive match-up with Miami, Flaherty has been considerably better at home. In his 40 innings pitched at Busch Stadium, he has a 2.25 ERA, 3.34 xFIP, 29% kRate, 0.85 WHIP, and allows a .188 AVG/.244 wOBA. Even with St. Louis’ offensive struggles, they are among the heaviest favorites of the night at -230.
Merrill Kelly (DK: $8k, FD: $8.3k) | RHP | ARI vs. COL
Kelly stands out as one of the most intriguing GPP pitchers of the day as he heads into Tuesday coming off of three consecutive wins while tossing 18 strikeouts across those games and allowing just two earned runs (in 22.1 innings). When Colorado is away from Coors Field, they have been one of the worst offenses against RHPs: .223 AVG (27th), .282 wOBA (29th), .152 ISO (27th), and 71 wRC+ (29th). Kelly is safe by no means, especially since Chase Field is still very much a hitters park, but it’s a far cry from the safety net that Coors Field tends to provide the Rockies bats.
Brett Anderson (DK: $6.2k, FD: $7k) | LHP | OAK vs. BAL
If you’re in the market to punt an SP2, considering the A’s are -220 home favorites, Anderson makes plenty of sense to deploy against Baltimore. In 48 at-bats, the Orioles have just a .188 AVG against Anderson and they have posted a 26% kRate against lefties this season. We shouldn’t expect a whole lot from him but he does tend to post better fantasy stats at home and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in five straight starts which included some stiff competition. Anderson only has a 12.6% kRate on the year, so again, expectations must be kept low. But a lineup like Baltimore’s can easily give him five, maybe six, punchouts across about six innings of work. For the price, that would be great.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Chicago Cubs vs. Ivan Nova (RHP, Chicago White Sox)
Nova allows an opponent batting average above .300 to both righties and lefties and he’s only posting a 14.9% overall kRate. His 1.60 WHIP trails only Antonio Senzatela for the worst mark on the slate. The Cubs are returning to Wrigley Field from their seven game road trip and are in a prime position to provide some fireworks for the Cubbie fans. Anthony Rizzo will be my home run call of the day 💣 and I don’t see how you could roll out a Cubs stack without him. Kyle Schwarber and Javy Baez would probably be the two guys I’d look towards after Rizzo.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Logan Allen (LHP, San Diego Padres)
Sure, the Brewers are a more appealing stack when they’re at home -- especially from a home run upside standpoint -- but the Padres are rolling out a 22-year-old making his MLB debut this evening. Logan Allen had a >5.00 ERA in triple-A this year paired with a 1.44 WHIP and 64.3% LOB%. Despite the pitcher-friendly environment, the Brewers offense could certainly get some hit-and-run rallies going against the young fella. I could understand if you don’t want to pay up for Christian Yelich or Mike Moustakas, given the lefty on lefty match-ups. So, considering Lorenzo Cain, Yasmani Grandal, and perhaps even the dirt-cheap, enigmatic Jesus Aguilar could be worth while.
Houston Astros (LHBs) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, Cincinnati Reds)
DeSclafani holds his own in righty on righty match-ups, but against lefty bats, he has been pretty miserable. He’s allowing a .414 wOBA and .295 ISO to LHBs this year on a huge 47.5% Hard Contact and 47.4% Fly Ball Rate. The rookie sensation Yordan Alvarez is perhaps who you want to start Astro stacks with and is a decent bet to launch another home run. Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick also standout as a couple other LHBs to deploy.
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Mookie Betts (DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.1k) | OF | vs. RHP Michael Pineda
Betts has hit righties much, much better than lefties this season and Pineda has shown some poor reverse splits by struggling against righty bats. This should be a good recipe for Mookie to find some success. Betts has a 42.2% Hard Contact Rate and 45.8% Fly Ball Rate versus RHPs while Pineda is surrendering a 49.3% Hard Contact Rate and 45.2% Fly Ball Rate. In 24 plate appearances against Pineda, Betts has a .304 AVG, .408 wOBA, .348 ISO and a pair of home runs. The 2018 AL MVP is running a little hot and cold as of late but this definitely seems like a spot where he could have one of his ceiling performances.
Kevin Newman (DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k) | 2B/SS | vs. LHP Daniel Norris
Newman isn’t someone many people typically look to roll out but he’s been an excellent floor play recently. In his last ten games he is hitting for a .375 AVG with three doubles, a home run, three stolen bases, with just a 9.3% kRate. Norris gives up plenty of hits to RHBs, allowing a .304 AVG with a <20% kRate so Newman should once again carry sizable safety from the lead off spot in the Pirates order.
Robinson Cano (DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k) | 2B | vs. RHP Julio Teheran
Cano hasn’t wasted any time shaking the rust off after returning from the IL two games ago, as he’s already smacked a double and a home run. He will face Julio Teheran, who I did mention above in the pitching section, but he is a guy who struggles considerably more against LHBs and this is a park that can often favor lefty hitting. Primarily, though, Cano is simply too solid of a hitter to be so cheap. He most definitely nabs the third spot in the order as well, which is another added bonus.
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