By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Happy Friday! And since this is the last MLB newsletter until Monday, I’ll go ahead and extend a “Happy Fathers Day” out to all the dads reading this as well. Hope you fellas have a great, relaxing weekend! This evening’s main slate is hitting 100% capacity as all 30 Major League clubs are taking the field. With every team in play and so much to dive into, I won’t waste any time here. Let’s jump straight into the action!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

Plenty of games with warm weather in play today, particularly along the east coast and parts of the midwest. The one potential delay/PPD threat to watch out for takes place in Pittsburgh.

CLE @ PIT: A light line of rain potentially moves through the area around the first pitch, A heavier line of storms is set to arrive late, soon after the game would normally end. However, if the earlier band of rain causes any sort of significant delay, then the stuff arriving later could force this game into a wash out. Monitor closely leading up to lock.

TOR @ BAL: 80-85 degrees with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to LF. Advantage: Hitters.

NYM @ WAS: Similar outlook as Baltimore. 80 degrees,10 mph winds blowing OUT to LF.

OAK @ NYY: Around 80 with winds blowing right to left, potentially out to left field at times.

STL @ ATL: Near 90 degrees at first pitch with light winds blowing IN from RF. Despite those winds, it’s a net positive hitting environment with the hot temps.

MIL @ COL: It won’t be nearly as hot in Colorado as it has been this week but it’s still going to be near 80 with 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to LF/Center. Some raid could make it’s way into the area and cause a delay but, in general, it isn’t game threatening.

BOS @ KC: Weather wise, this is the best hitting environment on the slate. Temperatures near 100 degrees at first pitch which includes notable humidity and 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to LF. Hot, humid, and helpful winds are the three main ingredients to the “advantageous hitting weather” recipe. Kauffman Stadium has also rated out as the #6 hitter’s park this season.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP) | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.5k | @ COL

The folks who risked taking Brandon Woodruff yesterday got burned pretty badly but you do have to acknowledge that risk any time you roll with a Coors Field pitcher. Burnes, in my opinion, is better suited to succeed in Coors. First off, it won’t be nearly as warm in Colorado as it was yesterday. Secondly, Burnes doesn’t really allow much hard contact and possesses just a 25.4% HardHit% with an average exit velo of 85.7 mph. Thirdly, he’s just a stud pitcher in general and has been aces on the road this season where he holds a 1.00 ERA, 1.72 xFIP, 43.1% kRate, 0.44 WHIP, .113 opp AVG, and .157 opp wOBA. Those are near deGrom-like numbers. Since it takes into account the park factor, the wRC+ metric is an excellent stat to consider in this specific situation, and Colorado’s 81 wRC+ vs. RHPs at home is the second lowest figure in the league. As mentioned in previous newsletters, I am decidedly more hesitant to pay up for pitchers these days until we get a better feel on how the ban on pitchers using foreign ‘sticky’ substances on the baseball affects each individual player. However, Burnes is just too good to not at least consider for GPPs today and there’s always the possibility that he was never a guy who even used any now-prohibited substance to begin with.

Alex Cobb (RHP) | DK: $8.8k, FD: $7.5k | vs. DET

When in doubt, it’s never a bad idea to simply look at which team is the heaviest favorite on the slate and target their starting pitcher. The Angels stand atop that mountain today with huge -215 moneyline odds against Detroit. Cobb has had a very up and down season and has accrued a poor 4.98 ERA along the way. However, he has been getting massively unlucky, evidenced by his 2.67 xFIP and 3.12 SIERA, which are two metrics which shows us where Cobb’s ERA *should* be. Cobb can provide solid strikeout potential with his 28.0% kRate and he forced an absolute massive amount of ground balls (60.0% GB%) and very few fly balls (15.7% FB%). Detroit has certainly improved their hitting as of late but they still offer up around a 26% kRate to RHPs and Vegas is pinning them with a low 4.0 implied run total today.

Zach Davies (RHP) | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7k | vs. MIA

I know it’s an odd day when I’m finding myself highlighting Zach Davies. You’re not getting much strikeout upside at all here, though Davies’ numbers are creeping up as of late. Over his last five starts, he has a 19.0% kRate, which is still low but better than his 14.5% kRate on the season. The more notable point is that he has allowed either zero or one earned run in four of those five starts alongside a 1.67 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. On top of that, the Miami bats are ice cold right now and over the last week against right-handed pitching, they’re batting only .184 with a league-worst 42 wRC+. They have a 3.8 implied run total heading into this game and the Cubbies check-in as heavy -170 moneyline favorites. If Davies continues trending in the right direction, we can hope to get six solid innings out of him with maybe five or six Ks and a shot at a win/quality start DFS bonus. It’s not a play I’m in love with but it’s a play that has a fairly clear path to ultimately working out.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ The Brewers get the obligatory mention here but two other teams that are in excellent spots are the Blue Jays and Dodgers.

Boston Red Sox vs. Kyle Zimmer (RHP), KC

Kansas City appears to be setting up for a bullpen game as the currently confirmed starter, Kyle Zimmer, will likely only burn through the first one or two frames. The Royals have a bottom 10 bullpen so, when it comes to the viability of a Red Sox stack, there is not much concern with whichever relievers they decide to roll out after Zimmer. If you recall what the forecast is looking like for this game, you probably realize a major reason why I’m highlighting Boston here. It’s going to be very hot (near 100), humid, and winds will be blowing out to left field at 10-15 mph. That covers the coveted trifecta when searching for advantageous hitting weather. On top of that, Kauffman Stadium has rated out as the #6 hitter’s park this season. Boston is coming off of back-to-back games scoring 10 runs and they’ll have double-digit run upside once again this evening.

Minnesota Twins vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

Targeting Foltynewicz is just easy pickings right now. In his last five starts, he has posted a 7.23 ERA with a 5.95 xFIP, 7.3% kRate, .314 opp AVG, and .378 opp wOBA. The Twins don’t have a ton of lefty bats to throw out there, but Folty is absolutely terrible against that side of the plate (6.75 ERA, 6.41 xFIP, .454 wOBA, 3.38 HR/9) in case you want to favor guys like Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff. The Rangers do actually have a relatively solid bullpen, but not one that stands out as the cream of the crop.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR

I’ve ragged on him quite a bit in the past but I have to admit, Robbie Ray has been lights out in just about every game he’s started over the last two months and I nearly highlighted him in the pitching section. Chances are he continues to roll against Baltimore, but if he’s going to be a popular option on this slate then I would view something like a three-man Orioles stack as a solid leverage play. Baltimore is actually a surprisingly great offense against lefties. Their 118 wRC+ vs. LHPs on the season checks in at 3rd overall and they’re rocking a 137 wRC+ over the last two weeks. One thing Robbie Ray does struggle with is giving up home runs (2.05 HR/9 rate). His 92.0 mph average exit velocity and 48.9% HardHit% are the highest figures among today’s starting pitchers. The O’s might only get four or five hits against Ray but two or three of those could legitimately go for home runs, especially with 80-85 degree temperatures and winds blowing out at 10 mph in Camden Yards, the #7 hitter’s park on the season.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Thomas Eshelman (RHP), BAL

1B Matt Olson | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), PIT

1B Dan Vogelbach | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

2B/3B/SS Jonathan Villar | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

SS Adalberto Mondesi | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

SS JP Crawford | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), TB

OF Steven Duggar | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), PHI

OF Taylor Ward | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), DET

1B Ty France | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), TB

OF Abraham Almonte | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Carlos Martinez (RHP), STL

2B/3B/SS Jordy Mercer | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kyle Zimmer (RHP), KC

As I hit on above, this is setting up as a bullpen game for Kansas City, and if Devers gets to face mostly RHPs during his at-bats this evening, his home run potential is going to be quite high. He has knocked out 13 of his 16 HRs against right-handers this season while creating a massive 55.7% HardHit% and accruing a .339 ISO. Devers has a scorching 99.9 mph average ext velocity against RHPs over the last two weeks as well (95th percentile). And, once again, it’s going to be nearly 100 degrees and humid in Kansas City with 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left. Let’s get it Devers!

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