By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Another eight game main slate lands on the docket this evening. Overall, it’s looking like a fairly balanced set of games. We have a pretty solid set of pitchers to choose from and a good number of offenses are in quality spots to succeed as well. Coors Field is in play once again but with two quality pitchers on the mound (Woodruff & Marquez), hitters in that game *may* actually not be insanely chalky. We shall see. People do love themselves some Coors bats. It also looks like we’ll have no postponement or even delay threats to worry about. The baseball gods have blessed us with some pristine weather this week! I’ll keep the intro short and jump straight into some plays! Good luck, let's go!!!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

Zero PPD/delay concerns today!

STL @ ATL: Mid-to-upper 80s all game. Slight bump to bats.

CWS @ HOU: Roof at Minute Maid Park will be CLOSED.

MIL @ COL: 90 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing OUT at 10-15 mph. Pretty clear-cut weather advantage goes to the hitters.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Joe Musgrove (RHP) | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CIN

Despite the dangerous opponent he’ll have to contend with, these are appealing salaries for Musgrove. The good news, if you’re looking to roll with Musgrove, is that Cincinnati has been a much less dangerous offense on the road. At home, they score a league-leading 6.03 runs/gm and possess a 131 wRC+ vs. RHPs (ranks 2nd). On the road, that run average drops all the way down to 4.12 runs/gm (ranks 17th) alongside a 91 wRC+ vs. RHPs (ranks 16th). On the other side of the coin, you have Joe Musgrove who excels at home where he holds a fantastic 2.00 xFIP and 37.9% kRate (3.36 xFIP and 29.9% kRate on the road). We’ve really only gotten one massive fantasy performance out of Musgrove over his last nine starts but I believe we’ll start to see some more big games soon, perhaps starting tonight. The Pads are heavy -180 moneyline favorites today and Cincy is being pinned with a slate-low 3.3 implied run total.

Marcus Stroman (RHP) | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.9k | vs. CHC

Stroman owns just a 21.5% kRate on the year. That may push people away from him since, as we’re all aware, strikeouts reign supreme when it comes to DFS scoring. However, over his last five starts, the strikeout rate has hit 25.4%. He has recorded at least six Ks in four of those games while maintaining a sharp 1.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in that span. Stroman is also forcing a ton of ground balls this season (54.8% GB%) and very few fly balls (22.8% FB%) which is helping him pitch at least six full innings in the vast majority of his starts. The Cubs offer up a ton of Ks to opposing pitchers -- 25.8% kRate vs. RHPs on the year, 28.6% kRate over the last two weeks. They’re also another offense who struggles away from their home field -- 5.12 runs/gm at home (12th), 3.91 runs/gm on the road (23rd). Citi Field has rated out as the #7 pitcher’s park this season and the Cubs currently hold a low 3.4 implied run total.

Charlie Morton (RHP) | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.2k | vs. STL

As a Braves fan, recommending Charlie Morton is slightly unnerving. There is definitely a good version of Morton and a pretty bad one. Ya never truly know which one will show up at the ballpark on any given night. BUT these $7.2k/$8.2k DFS price tags are solid potential bargains for a guy who has a 26.2% kRate, which ranks 6th on the slate among starting pitchers. The Cardinals have some big hitters but, at best, they’re a very average offense. Against RHPs, St. Louis has only an 86 wRC+ (ranks 24th) and a 79 wRC+ over the last two weeks (28th). They’re struggling as of late and have scored two runs or fewer in four of their last five games. Atlanta is also heavily favored with -185 moneyline odds. You’ll have a decent chance to get six solid innings out of Morton with around seven or eight Ks and a shot at the win/quality start bonuses.

DK Preferred: Shohei Ohtani ($8,100) and German Marquez ($5,500).

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ Despite facing a quality pitcher, the Brewers will likely still be fairly popular out in Coors Field. It could definitely work out, so I can’t really argue against stacking them. The NYY @ TOR game holds a slate-high 10.5 O/U, a half run more than the Coors total. With two suspect pitchers on the mound in that game, I’d look for the Yankees and Blue Jays to be quality stack targets as well.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

After a one week road trip, the Angels return home where they rank 3rd in the MLB scoring 5.56 runs/gm with a 121 wRC+. They’ll look to tee off against Matt Manning who will be making his MLB debut. Manning has some shown some decent strikeout stuff, but in seven starts at the Triple-A level this year (32.1 IP) he has accrued an awful 8.06 ERA, 4.37 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, and a 3.06 HR/9 Rate. If they knock him off the mound early, Manning will be supported by a bottom 10 Detroit bullpen.

Atlanta Braves vs. John Gant (RHP), STL

Braves bats were pretty popular last night and, if you avoided the Albies and Riley duds, everyone else worked out well for ya. I imagine they’ll be an attractive stack once again with a few guys garnering high ownership. I can’t argue against them as they’ll get to ace off with John Gant who just isn’t really a guy who will consistently shut down a good offense. Gant has a rough 5.46 xFIP with a 1.65 WHIP and a .380 expected opponent wOBA. Gant will be backed by a Cardinals bullpen whose 4.93 xFIP ranks as the worst in the league. It’ll be warm out in Atlanta and Truist Park has provided a solid hitting environment all season, ranking as the #10 hitter’s park.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

The Astros offense has been stupid good lately so I don’t think they’re going to go incredibly overlooked. However, I also don’t envision any single Astros hitter not named Jose Altuve will be more than 10% owned in GPPs so that’s why they’re landing in this section. Over the last two weeks, Houston has recorded a massive 164 wRC+, which leads the MLB in that span by a wide margin (Angels 2nd with a 134 wRC+). Dylan Cease is a quality pitcher who has posted some huge games this season but he has shown some legitimate struggles on the road where he has a 5.79 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, .325 opp wOBA, and an 11.6% Walk Rate. Alex Bregman (quadriceps) and Kyle Tucker (C-19 protocols) are a couple of key bats that Houston will presumably be without tonight but that won’t stop me from viewing them as a great leverage stack in GPPs.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

2B/SS Marcus Semien | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Michael King (RHP), NYY

C Gary Sanchez | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. TJ Zeuch (RHP), TOR

SS Tim Anderson | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

1B Daniel Vogelbach | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

3B/SS Joey Wendle | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), SEA

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

3B/OF Miguel Andujar | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. TJ Zeuch (RHP), TOR

OF Chas McCormick | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

OF/3B Taylor Ward | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

OF Adam Engel | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

OF Kevin Kiermaier | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), SEA

OF Abraham Almonte | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. John Gant (RHP), STL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Jared Walsh | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

I’m looking to attack the young dude making his MLB debut. As mentioned above, Manning has been struggling mightily at the Triple-A level (8.06 ERA) and that includes getting shelled. His 11 HRs given up through seven minor league starts and 32.1 IP translates to a 3.06 HR/9 Rate. Walsh has crushed righty pitching this season to the tune of a .444 wOBA, .308 ISO, 42.5% HardHit% which has led to a massive 188 wRC+ and 11 HRs (vs. RHPs). Manning had a fairly high 41.2% Fly Ball Rate in Triple-A ball this year and Walsh has produced a huge 31.4% HR/FB rate against righties. With all that said, I’m looking for Walsh to help me go 4-for-4 on the week in HR Calls! Let’s go!

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Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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