Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney 6/17/19

• 7:00  Tanaka on DK

• 10:32  Corbin Concerns

• 12:16  Angels Bats @ Toronto

• 15:08  Reds vs. Houston

• 17:55  Braves Offense

• 20:37  Mike Clevinger / Jose Berrios

• 28:00  A’s Stack

• 36:44  Betting Tips & HR Calls

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Here’s to hoping everyone had a nice weekend and, for all the dads out there, I hope your Father’s Day was a good one! We’ll kick off the workweek with a healthy 12-gamer. A major storyline for today is the return of Mike Clevinger. Prior to sustaining a back injury, the Cleveland ace had amassed 22 strikeouts across his first 12 innings of the season, allowing just two hits. Are you taking the gamble on him in his first start back today? I would think that the Indians will approach his workload with plenty of caution. He’s thrown only 58 and 67 pitches in his two rehab starts in the minor leagues. We also know Globe Life Park isn’t exactly a great pitchers park by any means. I’ll be much more tempted to just watch and see how he does today and roll him out in his (likely) next start against Detroit on Saturday. Anyhow, we’ve got plenty of other bases cover, so let’s get to it!

Today’s games with moneylines and implied totals:

Weather Report ⛅

The PHI @ WAS, HOU @ CIN, TB @ NYY, and MIA @ STL games will all have some sort of rain to contend with. Of these games, none look like they’re in danger of being washouts. However, in-game delays or late starts can’t be ruled out. Keep track of these games and check up on the forecasts closer to lock to determine if it’ll be too risky to use any of the starting pitchers. For now, everyone stays in play for me.

Update: The outlook for the PHI @ WAS game has gotten considerably worse since I began writing this newsletter. Washington is currently in a flash flood watch, so that seems like the situation that will require the most attention as the day progresses. 

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Kenta Maeda (DK: $9k, FD: $8.6k) | RHP | LAD vs. SF

It’s hard to feel too great about any of the top priced pitchers today but Maeda certainly stands out from a match-up perspective. He’s also been terrific at home this season and he’s not going to cost you a five figure salary. Maeda is 5-0 in his five 2019 home starts where, in 32 innings, he has posted a 1.69 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, 29.7% kRate, 0.72 WHIP while allowing a .145 AVG and .214 wOBA. The Giants have been one of the worst offenses all year and only have a .290 wOBA (27th) and 79 wRC+ (27th) against RHPs. The Dodgers are the largest favorite on the slate at -240. There’s a really good chance Maeda improves his home record to 6-0 this evening.

Wade Miley (DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.4k) | LHP | HOU vs. CIN

I’m certainly not a massive fan of playing Miley, especially away from Minute Maid Park, but I don’t expect much ownership to swing his way and the match-up with Cincy does provide some upside. Miley has a solid 26.3% kRate this season and is forcing plenty of ground balls as well, with a 55.3% GB Rate. Over the last month, the Reds have struggled heavily against lefty pitching. They may not strikeout a ton (19.5% kRate) but they have just a .292 wOBA (26th), .103 ISO (30th), and 76 wRC+ (28th). A 20+ DKFP day seems pretty doable here with a chance to inch towards 30 DKFP.

Miles Mikolas (DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k) | RHP | STL vs. MIA

For a second start in a row, Mikolas will get a shot at the weak Marlins offense. They certainly looked pretty capable last Wednesday, however, when they hung five runs on eight hits against Mikolas across five frames. Perhaps he’s just a guy that can only be trusted when he takes the mound at home. Mikolas has averaged 4.4 DKFP in seven road starts, 18.8 DKFP in seven home starts. In those seven home games he has a 2.87 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, and allows a .204 AVG and .256 wOBA. We should expect his positive trends at home to continue against the Marlins tonight. The Cards are huge -210 favorites tonight and you simply don’t see a pitcher who is that heavily favored for this cheap very often.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Oakland Athletics (RHBs) vs. Andrew Cashner (RHP, Baltimore Orioles)

Cashner has looked “not completely awful” at times this year but he is having a really hard time limiting production to RHBs. Against righties, he is allowing a .391 wOBA, .248 ISO, 1.55 WHIP, 58.1% LOB%, and is only striking out 15.3% of batters. We also know that the Baltimore bullpen is prone to throwing out some meatballs as well. The A’s are all pretty affordable and should bring considerable upside to the table. I’ll look to target guys like Matt Chapman (.356 wOBA, .203 ISO vs. RHP), Mark Canha (.392 wOBA, .315 ISO), and Khris Davis (.300 wOBA, .187 ISO).

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tyler Beede (RHP, San Francisco Giants)

This could be a quick day on the mound for Beede who, in 19 career road innings, has a 9.47 ERA, 5.40 xFIP, 2.16 WHIP, while allowing a .321 AVG and .416 wOBA. It’s a small sample size, but he has really struggled against LHBs (.356 AVG, .453 wOBA, .250 ISO). The Dodgers are one of the best home offenses in baseball (5.50 runs/game, ranks 4th) and aside from Cody Bellinger (.479 wOBA, .331 ISO vs. RHPs), I’d look to target Max Muncy (.382 wOBA, .242 ISO) and Alex Verdugo (.340 wOBA, .172 ISO) among others.

San Diego Padres vs. Jhoulys Chacin (RHP, Milwaukee Brewers)

After taking part in breaking the record for runs scored in a four game series, the Padres bid farewell to Coors Field and return back home to Petco Park -- that is virtually a night and day difference in park factors. But we’ll see if their bats can avoid the Coors hangover and manage to stay hot as they take on Chacin, who has struggled on the road this year with a 7.39 ERA and 5.19 xFIP while allowing a .356 wOBA. I’d look to roll out the red hot Fernando Tatis Jr. (.411 wOBA, .295 ISO vs. RHP), Eric Hosmer (.355 wOBA, .184 ISO), and Hunter Renfroe (.363 wOBA, .358 ISO). Tatis Jr. Will be my home run call tonight. 💣

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Mike Trout (DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.6k) | OF | vs. RHP Edwin Jackson

Edwin Jackson is one of the most attackable pitchers in baseball, so it probably doesn’t take much convincing to take one of baseball’s best hitters against him. But Jackson has given up nine homers this season -- eight have come at the hands of right-handed batters. RHBs have an absurd .417 AVG, .575 wOBA, and .517 ISO against Jackson on the season. In the last month, Trout is en fuego after posting a .479 wOBA and .424 ISO with ten homers. He should get at least two cracks at Jackson tonight.

Yordan Alvarez (DK: $4.5k, FD: $4k) | OF | vs. RHP Luis Castillo

With six professional games under his belt, Alvarez has already belted four homers. I don’t see how you don’t continue to roll this kid out even against a quality pitcher like Castillo. Against LHBs, Castillo does allow some production, and overall, he allows a 17.4% HR/FB Rate on 38.8% Hard Contact. I’m anxious to see if Alvarez can continue his electric rookie campaign.

Tyler Naquin (DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.3k) | OF | vs. RHP Lance Lynn

Assuming Naquin gets the nod in the outfield tonight, he’s a cheap way to gain some exposure to the second best hitting environment in baseball. In the last two weeks (six games played), Naquin has averaged an exit velocity of 97.5 mph (top 95%) on 38.5% Hard Contact. He has a .351 AVG in his last 51 plate appearances against RHPs and could slot in at the clean-up spot in the order to take advantage of the LHB vs. RHP match-up. Lynn is having a strong season but he has traditional splits so he struggles more with lefties. Against LHBs at Globe Life Park, he allows a .300 AVG with just a 16.1% kRate and surrenders 41.2% Hard Contact. Jason Kipnis (DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.3k) is another cheap lefty to consider in this Indians order.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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