By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

It’s a split slate kinda day so I hope anyone who dabbled in the early slate is cashing nicely by the time you’re reading this! Thursday evening will bring us a modest little five-game set of games to dig into. As far as small slates go, this one’s looking pretty solid -- decent pitching, decent hitting, and no major weather concerns.

Also, shout out to @ZeroInDenver. He’ll be covering the MLB newsletters starting tomorrow until I get back from vacay next Friday, so get ready to exercise your imaginations!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There are no surefire weather threats but some pesky popup storms are a possibility in some spots this evening. We’ll have a better idea of where and when those storms may come through closer to lock.

TB @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): Some storms are in the forecast but aren’t expected to move in until after this game is over. But there will at least be some chance of a late-inning delay, just not a significant one. Winds near 15 mph but they’ll be blowing right to left.

PHI @ WAS (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Could see a popup storm or two but, more than likely, they’ll avoid any major trouble. Humid with temps in the mid-80s and light 8 mph winds blowing OUT to right. Nice hitting conditions.

TEX @ DET (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Warmest game on the slate with temps at 90 degrees at first pitch. Near 15 mph winds but they’ll be blowing mostly right to left.

MIL @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): Low chance of some rain moving in towards the end of this game but that should hold off until after the game. Winds blowing OUT to left near 15 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Severino (RHP), NYY | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.4k | vs. TB

It’s a good spot for Severino to keep things rolling. In his last five starts, he has come away with a 1.67 ERA, 2.90 xFIP, 0.77 WHIP, .168 opp AVG, and a 32.8% kRate. Severino has thrown for double-digit strikeouts in back-to-back games and will face off with a strikeout-prone Rays offense that has a 25.5% kRate against RHPs on the road this season. The Yankees (-240) are the heaviest favorites on the slate as well.

UPDATE: Severino has been scratched from tonight’s game and placed on the COVID-19 IL. Clarke Schmidt will start in his place but will be limited to around 45-50 pitches.

Martin Perez (LHP), TEX | DK: $9k, FD: $10.5k | @ DET

Perez steps in as a worthy pivot off of the higher-owned guys like Luis Severino, Zack Wheeler, and Shohei Ohtani. Perez (20% kRate) doesn’t have the same sort of strikeout upside as either of those guys, But he does bring a slate-low 2.18 ERA to the table along with a high 55.3% Groundball Rate and very limited hard contact. That high GB% has allowed Perez to pitch deep into games -- he’s worked through at least six full innings in nine of his last ten starts. And it never hurts to take on this lowly Tigers offense that ranks dead last in the MLB with a .264 wOBA, .096 ISO, and 70 wRC+.

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $9.4k | vs. LAA

There is not much to love among the value pitchers on this slate but Kirby will probably be the most viable SP2 over on DraftKings. On FanDuel, ehh, I’d probably just find the extra $800-$1,200 to pay up for Ohtani/Severino/Perez/Wheeler. Kirby has shown great upside with a 29.9 DKFP performance against the Orioles and a 25.1 DKFP performance in his MLB debut against the Rays. His 22.7% kRate is about league average but he’s been great at limiting walks (2.6% BB%) and his 1.14 WHIP is comparable to the other top arms on the slate. The Angels are playing better in general after breaking their recent losing streak but they also nearly got no-hit by Tyler Anderson last night and they continue to offer up a high amount of strikeouts -- 26.1% kRate vs. RHPs on the season, 34.4% overall kRate in the last week. This game is essentially a pick ‘em and it will carry a slate-low 7.0 O/U.

Also Consider:

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $10.2k | @ SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

It’s a pretty obvious spot for a Phillies stack today. Corbin is just not good and he checks in with a slate-high 6.65 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and .374 opp wOBA. The Phillies have been noticeably better offensively when playing on the road and even more so when they’re up against a lefty. On the road vs. LHPs this season, they’re rocking a .375 wOBA (ranks 2nd), .255 ISO (1st), and 140 wRC+ (2nd). As bad as Corbin has been throughout this season, that Nationals bullpen may provide even more offensive upside for PHI bats, so the sooner they can retire Corbin, the better.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 2/10 (Awful)

Favorite PHI Bats: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber | Sneaky Bat: Alec Bohm

Texas Rangers vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

Rookie Beau Brieske has been a bit of a gas can at times this season. He’s given up 12 HRs in his nine starts resulting in a lofty 2.27 HR/9 Rate. He also checks in with a slate-worst 4.82 xFIP and a slate-low 15.3% kRate and a 7.4% Swinging Strike Rate. The Rangers' offense has had some issues with simply striking out too much, so facing a low strikeout pitcher should stand to benefit those bats.

DET Bullpen Rating: 4/10 (Below Average)

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager | Sneaky Bat: Ezequiel Duran

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP) + NYY Bullpen

I’m not crazy about this play but with Luis Severino being scratched (C-19 IL) from tonight’s game, the Yankees will be relying on their bullpen to pitch through this one (Schmidt will be limited to around 45-50 pitches). Now, the Yankees do have a strong bullpen that could feasibly shut down the Rays’ mediocre offense across all nine innings. It’s still likely a better situation for the Rays to face a bunch of bullpen arms as opposed to dealing with six or seven innings against a high-caliber starter like Luis Severino. Just about all of these Rays bats are super affordable as well.

NYY Bullpen Rating: 8/10 (Very Good)

Favorite TB Bats: Manuel Margot, Ji-Man Choi, Randy Arozarena | Sneaky Bat: Vidal Brujan

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.3k, FD: | vs. TB Bullpen

OF Mike Trout | DK: $5.6k, FD: | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.1k, FD: | vs. Aaron Ashby (RHP), MIL

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $4.6k, FD: | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

1B Rhys Hoskins | DK: $4.4k, FD: | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

SS Willy Adames | DK: $4.2k, FD: | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Ji-Man Choi | DK: $3.8k, FD: | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP) + NYY Bullpen

3B Alec Bohm | DK: $3.1k, FD: | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $3k, FD: | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

2B/3B Ezequiel Duran | DK: $2.5k, FD: | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

OF Odubel Herrera | DK: $2.2k, FD: | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

2B/SS Vidal Brujan | DK: $2.1k, FD: | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP) + NYY Bullpen

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $4.6k, FD: | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

Beau Brieske is an easy pitcher to target when hunting for a home run. Unfortunately, the Rangers' offense does not have a ton of standout power throughout their lineup but Adolis Garcia is not a bad bet to send one over the fence today. Brieske has a high 2.54 HR/9 Rate vs. RHBs along with a 20.0% HR/FB Rate. Against RHPs, Garcia has created a strong .213 ISO and he leads the team with a 91.9 mph average exit velocity and 46.2% HardHit%. The temperatures at first pitch in this game will also be around 90 degrees which will help some fly balls carry a bit further. Garcia has hit four home runs in his last 11 games so the bat has been pretty hot for him as well.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Rhys Hoskins OVER 1.5 Total Hits | +180 (DraftKings) | 1.5 Units

I thought about going with the o1.5 total bases prop for Hoskins but the -145 (DraftKings) odds just aren’t doing it for me -- though it is a strong bet that has hit in seven of Hoskins’ last nine games. For some extra juice, I’ll roll with Hoskins to record multiple HITS today at +180. Hoskins has accounted for multiple hits in six of his last nine. Hoskins has hit .381 vs. LHPs in his last 20 games and he’ll face off with LHP Patrick Corbin today, a pitcher Hoskins has a career .308 AVG against. He should be able to smack at least one hit off of Corbin and likely another one off of that terrible Nationals bullpen.

Zack Wheeler OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | -140 (Caesars/PointsBet) | 2.0 Units

Sticking with the Phillies for prop No. 2. It’s slightly bewildering to see Wheeler’s baseline strikeout prop set to 5.5 when he has recorded at least SEVEN strikeouts in eight straight starts. Even though Washington isn’t a team that typically strikes out a ton (20.4% kRate vs. RHPs), Wheeler is going to throw around 100 pitches and possesses a sharp 29.2% kRate on the season. It’d be a major shock if he doesn’t reach at least six Ks in this game.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!