Top MLB DFS Plays 6/16 | Four Aces Headline the Main Slate ♡ ♢ ♣ ♤

June 16, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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What a great day for DFS baseball fans to procrastinate at work! It’s a split slate hump day and, as always, I hope anyone who dabbled in the early slate is well inside the green by the time you read this. An eight-gamer is flying in on this evening’s main slate and ace pitchers will be the running theme here. deGrom, Cole, Kershaw, and Wheeler headline the position today and there will be some tough decisions to be made with these guys. Hitters and stacks will be the tricky part to figure out on this slate as only four teams currently hold an implied total above 4.5 runs. Let’s get right to it and see what we can cook up!

Quick note: Due to personal time constraints, this will be a slightly condensed newsletter today.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

It’s going to be a pretty quiet evening weather-wise. No rain forecasted in any of these eight games and there isn’t much in the way of overly warm temperatures or impactful winds either.

BOS @ ATL: Warmest game on the slate with temps in the low 80s for much of the game. Light 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to CF.

TEX @ HOU: The roof at Minute Maid Park is scheduled to be CLOSED.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zack Wheeler (RHP) | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.8k | @ LAD

Despite the premium price tags and pitch count concerns, I expect Jacob deGrom will be the highest-owned stud tonight and I won’t talk anyone off of him. Gerrit Cole is at the forefront of the whole ‘foreign substance’ controversy involving pitchers and he’s on the road against a tough offense. He still racked up 9 Ks in his last outing and will likely be the most contrarian/lowest-owned ace option tonight. Clayton Kershaw sort of falls in the middle for me. He almost always gets it done at home and will net you in the vicinity of 25 DKFP/45 FDFP most of the time. No issues going with him…

When it comes to the Zack Wheeler discussion, while he does have to face a tough opponent on the road, I believe people will still be attracted to his recent performance, and why not? LineStar recently added a new data chart showing a pitcher’s performance over his last five starts and Wheeler’s chart is more than impressive. In that span, he is boasting a 1.47 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 41.2% kRate, and has racked up 34 DKFPPG/57 FDFPPG. He’s thrown no less than 92 pitches in that stretch, 100+ pitches over his last three, and he’s gone at least seven full innings in each start. He’ll have to shut down a Dodgers offense that leads the MLB with a 119 wRC+ vs. RHPs and is good for around five or so runs more often than not at home. But Wheeler is pushing for “match-up proof” status and whatever production he does allow could be minimal.

Anthony DeSclafani (RHP) | DK: $7k, FD: $7.7k | vs. ARI

If you were the owner of one of the <5% of lineups who had DeSclafani rostered in his previous start this past Friday, bravo to you. DeSclafani pitched an absolute gem across nine complete shutout innings where he allowed three total base runners (2 H, 1 BB) and notched eight strikeouts on 103 pitches -- good for 43.5 DKFP/61 FDFP. There is a bit of a feeling of “chasing points” here, but we’re also not looking for *that* massive of a performance tonight given these affordable salaries. DeSclafani has a sharp 3.36 xFIP and 1.10 WHIP at home this season along with a serviceable 23.1% kRate. After blowing a 7-0 lead last night, the Diamondbacks have lost a near-record 21 road games in a row, and in 73 plate appearances versus DeSclafani, the current D-Backs roster is hitting just .157 against him. Against RHPs on the road, Arizona has a horrid 67 wRC+, .200 AVG, and a high 25.2% kRate. We should look to get six or seven strong innings out of the Giants right-hander tonight with an obvious strong chance at a win/quality start bonus. San Fran is a heavy -170 favorite on the evening.

Bailey Ober (RHP) | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6.2k | @ SEA

With so many more proven pitching options on the slate, I don’t believe you really need to look to go here on FanDuel. But on DraftKings, if you plan on fitting in one ace as well as some big bats, Ober makes a ton of sense at this $4,600 price tag (38 hitters cost more than that). Ober is 13.0 innings deep into his rookie season so the sample size is obviously small, but he has accrued a solid 3.83 xFIP and 26.3% kRate. At basically every level in the minors, Ober posted at least a 30+% kRate so he can be viewed as someone with legitimate strikeout potential. While he hasn’t thrown more than 82 pitches in any of his three starts, Ober is likely getting an extended audition as a potential mainstay in the Twins starting rotation so we could theoretically see him get stretched out to around 90 pitches tonight (just a guess). Seattle isn’t a juggernaut on offense by any means and they have struck out 26.2% of the time against RHPs this season (5th most). Vegas is giving them just a 3.9 implied run total this evening while pinning Minnesota as -140 favorites. Anything beyond 15 DKFP from Ober would be awesome value in my book and if his pitch count does indeed climb closer to 90 or so throws, the 20+ DKFP is a definite possibility.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ The one stack that really jumps off the page today is the Houston Astros facing Jordan Lyles. They lead the slate with a 5.1 implied run total and have a 128 wRC+ vs. RHPs at home. They won’t necessarily be cheap, but they are in a pretty obvious spot for success.

Atlanta Braves vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

Man, it feels like I’ve only highlighted my Braves once or twice all season… it’s been kind of a rough year. It isn’t as if the offense is bad, they’re just wildly inconsistent. They’re about as likely to score two or three runs as they are 8-10 runs. Though, when they’re at home in the hitter-friendly Truist Park (#8 hitter’s park this season) they lead the league with a .223 ISO vs. RHPs. Their 42 total HRs at home against RHPs trails only the Reds, who have 43 (on 41 more at-bats). Richards hasn’t given up many homers this season and he has a surprisingly strong 2.89 ERA ad 3.55 xFIP when pitching on the road this year. But his 92.3 mph average exit velocity and 52.8% HardHit% are both the highest figures among today’s starting pitchers so he’s certainly capable of getting hit hard. The core pieces to a Braves stack (Acuna Jr., Freeman, Albies, Riley) aren’t exactly cheap, so I’d view Atlanta as a more GPP stack target today. Also, you can actually get a cheap clean-up hitter with Abraham Almonte here.

Note: Garrett Richards has not yet been confirmed as the Red Sox starter today. Braves stack is appealing regardless.

Minnesota Twins vs. Justus Sheffield (LHP), SEA

Sheffield has been sputtering as of late and over his previous five starts he owns a 4.97 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, and he’s walking (4.6 BB/9) nearly the same amount of batters he is striking out (5.3 K/9 - 12.9% kRate). The Twins hold a 112 wRC+ vs. LHPs this season (6th best) and their .199 ISO trails only Atlanta (.200 ISO). Sheffield will be backed up by an average Mariners bullpen so you can look towards these Twins hitters as high-upside options.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

The Giants and most teams playing on the West Coast continue to go under-owned so I figure I’ll throw San Fran out here in this section once again. Merrill Kelly has been decent this year and has become a pitcher that most don’t go out of their way to stack against. However, he’s been suspect on the road where he has posted a 6.13 ERA, 4.11 xFIP, .279 opp AVG, .351 opp wOBA, and a 1.89 HR/9 Rate. The Giants have a 121 wRC+ against RHPs over the last two weeks (ranks 7th) and these bats should be fired up after a dramatic come from behind win following a 7-0 deficit last night.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

SS Francisco Lindor | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Robert Stock (RHP), CHC

1B/2B/3B DJ LeMahieu | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

SS/OF Amed Rosario | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/SS Donovan Solano | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Harold Ramirez | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

C Ryan Jeffers | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2k | vs. Justus Sheffield (LHP), SEA

OF Abraham Almonte | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

1B/3B Bobby Dalbec | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

After a long drought, I’m more than happy to start the week 2-for-2 with the home run calls (Crawford & Tatis). I’ll be rolling with a fairly chalky option in Altuve today, but I’m looking to keep the streak alive! Jordan Lyles has shown some poor reverse splits and has given up 2.04 HR/9 to RHBs this season behind a 39.8% HardHit%. Altuve has five HRs against RHPs in the last 20 games along with a strong .223 ISO against RHPs on the year. He blasted a walk-off grand slam in last night’s game and no one should expect him to stop swinging for the fences anytime soon.

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