By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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We have a full deck to play around with today as all 30 MLB teams are stepping foot on the diamond this evening. The baseball gods are also blessing us with a pretty clear forecast at every ballpark so we should have no weather postponement headaches to keep track of.

The league officially announced their plan to crackdown on pitchers using foreign substances to doctor baseballs which will go into effect June 21st. Since the whole ‘foreign substance’ controversy started gaining steam, alongside the historically slow offensive start to the season, we have seen batting averages creep up and league-wide spin rates go down. It’s no secret that hitters perform better as the weather gets warmer, so perhaps there isn’t as much correlation as some would like to believe. However, some of the evidence does make it feel like less of a coincidence. In April, the league’s average spin rate was 2,273 RPM, in May it ticked up to 2,283 RPM, and so far in June, it has dipped to 2,256 RPM. This will be an intriguing storyline to track, especially after the official crackdown goes into place on the 21st, which will entail suspensions and further punishments. It is interesting that we’re already seeing a statistical chain reaction with some of these pitching and hitting metrics over the course of just a couple of weeks.

Anyhow, there’s not much to do now but to simply let that whole situation play out and once the chips fall where they may, we can factor it into our approach when it comes to DFS. I’ve already been a bit more hesitant myself to write up and roster more expensive pitchers (not named Jacob deGrom) over the last week or two and that trend may continue moving forward. We’ll see how it all shakes out soon enough! Alright, let’s not waste any more time and dig into this slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

No weather postponement risks today!

NYY @ TOR: Winds blowing OUT to LF/CF around 10 mph. Cooler temps in the 60s do mitigate some advantage those winds provide hitters.

BAL @ CLE: Winds blowing IN from LF at 15+ mph sustained. Power bats get a bump down.

BOS @ ATL: Temps in the mid-80s with winds blowing OUT to LF at 10 mph. Quality hitting weather.

DET @ KC: Low 90s at the start of the game. Light winds blowing IN.

TB @ CWS: Winds blowing OUT to RF at 10-15 mph.

SD @ COL: High 90s at the first pitch and 90+ degrees pretty much the whole game. Similar conditions produced only five total runs yesterday and most Coors Field chalk bombed. Still… it’s Coors Field and this weather definitely isn’t a disadvantage to hitters.

PHI @ LAD: This may be the warmest game they’ve played in LA so far this season. 90 degrees at first pitch with 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT. Bats get a bit of a bump.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Andrew Heaney (LHP) | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.2k | @ OAK

I do imagine plenty of people will spend up on the slate’s most expensive option, Trevor Rogers, who is a flat $10k on both sites. I don’t mind it in cash, but as I alluded to in the intro, I’m somewhat straying away from rostering high-dollar pitchers (particularly in GPPs). Yu Darvish ($9.4k/$9k) is also an interesting ace to target. He’ll be toeing the rubber at Coors Field which adds risk but also provides him with a discount on DFS.

Andrew Heaney is far from the most consistent hurler, but he is going to draw some interest from me due to his 28.8% kRate being comparable to the very top pitchers on the board today. Heaney has also fared better on the road this season where he has posted a 3.62 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, and a 32.1% kRate (5.04 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 25.8% kRate @ home). Oakland Coliseum has rated out as the #3 pitcher’s park this season and all that extra foul territory (more than twice as much as any other park) could help Heaney as well, as he does possess a fairly high fly ball rate. The right-handed heavy A’s lineup may worry some, but Heaney has shown some strong reverse splits this season and happens to strike out more RHBs (31.4%) than LHBs (21.5%). Oakland is hitting just .215 at home versus lefties (ranks 26th) with a 99 wRC+ (ranks 19th) and a 24.3% kRate. In 119 plate appearances, the current Athletics roster is hitting just .202 against Heaney with a .283 wOBA and 27.7% kRate. If Heaney gets some solid run support and puts himself in line for the win/quality start bonuses, there is some 30 DKFP/50 FDFP potential here.

Casey Mize (RHP) | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.2k | @ KC

Mize isn’t setting the stat sheet on fire but he has simply been pitching some solid baseball for the last month and a half. Until he shows some signs of regression, it only makes sense to keep sticking with him, particularly as an affordable cash game pitcher. Mize’s admirable run on the mound began back on April 29th where, across eight starts and 50.0 IP, he has posted a 2.70 ERA, 3.99 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, 23.3% kRate, .175 opp AVG, and .257 opp wOBA. Now, that 3.99 xFIP is worrying and pretty much illustrates where his ERA *should* have been in that span, but it’s still not a terrible number. This will be the fourth time Kansas City has faced Mize on the mound this season, which may bring some concern… but his last start against the Royals came a little over three weeks ago so it isn’t like they’ve seen his stuff recently. Mize is throwing around 95 pitches per game over those last eight starts and has pitched at least six full innings in every start but one in that span while not allowing more than three earned runs in any. He’s also been better on the road and, despite the warm temperatures and good hitter’s park in KC, Mize will stand out as a worthy target today against a Royals offense that has plated three runs or fewer in eight of their last nine games.

Sammy Long (LHP) | DK: $6.2k, FD: $5.5k | vs. ARI

If you’re looking to get a little risky, Sammy Long may be someone to consider tonight. Right-hander Zack Littell will start as the Giants opener today and likely pitch the first one or two frames. Long is the projected ‘bulk reliever’ who will follow up Littell and is expected to throw somewhere in the vicinity of 70-80 pitches. Long looked impressive in his MLB debut last Wednesday which came in the same bulk relief role behind Littell on the road against Texas. He threw four near-flawless innings of one-hit baseball and racked up seven strikeouts on 69 pitches. A performance that was good enough to earn 19.8 DKFP/30 FDFP. That was a game in which the Giants lost, so he wasn’t able to snag a win, but if Long is on the mound with a lead in the fifth inning, he will put himself in line to earn the win bonus today. Since he isn’t going to actually start the game, you are automatically sacrificing any chance of getting the “quality start” bonus out of him on FanDuel, which is certainly something to keep in mind. But Long showed really strong strikeout upside throughout his time in the minors and that obviously translated immediately in his big league debut. He’ll get to throw in a solid pitcher’s park against a struggling Diamondbacks offense that has averaged only 3.46 runs/gm on the road this season (3rd lowest).

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ Much of the Coors Field chalk crashed and burned yesterday but that won’t stop the Padres and Rockies from gaining plenty of ownership once again (particularly San Diego). Aside from those teams, we may see the Cleveland Indians gain plenty of traction as well as they take on Matt Harvey who has looked absolutely lost on the mound all year and especially over the last month plus. There will be those 15+ mph winds blowing in over in Cleveland, which does take away some home run upside from that stack. It’s not enough to push them off my radar though.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

In a Brewers pitching rotation that includes names like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta, Brett Anderson sticks out like a sore thumb. On the season, Anderson has a 4.99 ERA, 4.85 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, and a .429 xwOBA with a pitiful 11.5% kRate and 4.7% Swinging Strike Rate. He’s also giving up a slate-worst 50.7% HardHit%, an average exit velocity of 92.7 mph, and an 11.5% Barrel%. These are all very, very bad metrics for Anderson as he looks to face off with a Reds offense that has already found some success against him this year and is averaging 9.25 runs/gm over their last four. The Brewers bullpen is fairly solid and may have to eat up the majority of the innings in this game if Anderson is retired early, but Cincy also didn’t have any problems scoring some runs against those relievers yesterday.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

Perhaps this isn’t the safest stack considering Montgomery has shut down, or at least held in check, some solid offenses this season. However, Montgomery will be going on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Across six starts and 29.1 IP on the road this season, Monty has racked up a 5.85 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, .339 wOBA, and is stranding only 65.9% of base runners. By now, anyone who follows baseball knows how explosive this Toronto batting order can be, which is anchored by MLB home run leader Vlad Guererro Jr. On the year, they have been a top 10 offense against lefties and when they faced Montgomery a couple of weeks ago, the Blue Jays sent him packing early after 4.2 innings of work. The upside in the top half of their order rivals any team in baseball and I would look for them as an appealing GPP stack today.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), PHI

On a full 15-game slate with Coors Field in play, I doubt any of these Dodger bats garner more than 10% ownership. They do have to contend with a really solid pitcher in Zach Eflin who is boasting an excellent 3.22 xFIP on the season. However, the Dodgers always have significant upside, particularly at home where they average 5.36 runs/gm and possess a 125 wRC+ vs. RHPs. As noted in the weather section above, it will also be 90 degrees at the first pitch in Los Angeles which, to my knowledge, is the warmest gametime temperatures the Dodgers have played in at home this season. It’s a small sample size, but in 30 plate appearances against Eflin, the current LAD roster is hitting .296 with a .418 wOBA and 10% kRate. If they can somehow knock him off the mound early, the Dodgers will go up against an average/below average Phillies bullpen which has a league-high 17.5% HR/FB Rate.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzales (RHP), COL

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

2B/3B/SS Jonathan Villar | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

SS/OF Amed Rosario | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

2B Ozzie Albies | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), TEX

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

OF Bryan Reynolds | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

1B/2B/3B Ty France | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

OF Aristides Aquino | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

2B/SS Kevin Newman | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

1B/3B Bobby Dalbec | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Tucker Davidson (RHP), ATL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

Low. Hanging. Fruit. I know. Tatis laid a massive chalky goose egg (sorry, that sounds gross) in the 30-40% of lineups that rostered him yesterday but it’s hard to imagine he struggles so badly in back-to-back games in Coors Field. The logic behind this home run pick likely doesn’t need much explanation but just in case… Tatis has an average 96.2 mph exit velo against RHPs in the last two weeks (95th percentile) along with five barreled balls (95th percentile), he has hit a home run on average once every 11 plate appearances against righties over his last 20 games, he already has a homer off of Chi Chi Gonzalez in just eight plate appearances with a .429 AVG, and he’s stepping into the batter’s box at Coors Field where it will be nearly 100 degrees at first pitch. Those are a few reasons to believe he goes yard today.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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