Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

🔊 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney - Weekend Edition

• 2:10 Saturday Pitching

• 6:34 Mike Minor in Cincy

• 8:45 German Marquez vs. Padres

• 10:36 Tournament Arms

• 12:12 Alternate Stacks

• 13:55 Sunday Slate

• 17:15 Phillies Offense

• 20:28 Betting Lines / HR Calls

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Welcome to another Saturday edition of the Daily Ledger. Hope you all had a good week. We’ve got an eight game slate coming up tonight with a first pitch time of 7:05 pm EST. Pitching is pretty top heavy with several serviceable arms in the high and mid ranges but nothing more than “hope and pray” dart throws in the lower half. There are a couple of games tonight with some serious blow up potential (not even including the game at Coors) so bats and stacks shouldn’t be difficult to find. Let’s take a quick look from a Vegas perspective:

Weather is going to come into play tonight most likely. There are some games to keep an eye on. In New York, the winds are going to be blowing out to dead center at 15 mph. Citi Field is a big park, so this isn’t a massive boost, but I have more interest in hitters here than I would normally. In Minnesota, we have around a 50% chance of rain at first pitch, with cooler temperatures, and winds blowing in at 11 mph. Poor hitting conditions to say the least. LineStar pegs this with a 15% PPD risk right now, so we need to have it on our radar. In Chicago, we have a 60% chance of rain at first pitch and that remains steady throughout the game time window and even into the night. This one looks worse than the situation in Minnesota. LineStar has this as a 30% PPD risk. Remember, weather can change on a dime and I’m writing this on Saturday morning so be sure you leave yourself time to review the forecasts against closer to first pitcher before making final decisions.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Frankie Montas | DK: $9.9K, FD: $8.7K | RHP | vs. Seattle

If you read my article last weekend I talked about Odorizzi being more lucky than good and that trend continues into this start again today. The 1.92 ERA is incredible but the 4.21 xFIP, .251 BABIP, and 38.9% hard contact rate allowed are all screaming regression. Similar to his last start (against the lowly Detroit Tigers), he gets another favorable match up against Kansas City so I wouldn’t fault you for paying up for him if you wanted. I personally am not willing to pay top dollar for a pitcher with an xFIP significantly higher than his ERA and a BABIP well below league average. The first thing that actually stood out to me on this slate was the price difference between sites on Montas today. He is the third most expensive pitcher on DraftKings but the sixth most expensive on FanDuel, $1,200 cheaper. He’s a steal on FanDuel at that price and still a great value, in my opinion, on DraftKings. He gets a match up against the Mariners who have officially proven at this point that their ridiculous start to the season was nothing more than a fluke. In April, Seattle was the hottest team in baseball with a .344 wOBA, .224 ISO, and 121 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Since the start of May, they’ve dropped to a .321 wOBA, .204 ISO, and 106 wRC+. They are also striking out a ton (25.3%) during that span and currently sit in last place, 13 games below .500. Montas, on the other hand, has been sharp in the early going of this season. In 60 innings pitched he has a 3.50 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP, 24.7% strikeouts, and just 6.3% walks. He has a ridiculous 64% ground ball rate against right-handed hitters. He is, however, struggling some with lefties (1.41 WHIP and 43.9% hard contact rate allowed) so don’t say I didn’t warn you about Dan Vogelbach in this spot. Seattle also could be without Encarnacion who has a back issue and was held out of last night’s game. He’s listed as day-to-day. If he’s held out again, that’s another hole in this lineup for Montas to exploit. This is a great pitchers park and Seattle’s offense is going in the wrong direction. We don’t have a line on this game yet but I expect Oakland and Montas to be solid favorites. He’s my top pitcher on the board today when you factor in price.

Aaron Nola | DK: $8.5K, FD: $8.8K | RHP | @Atlanta

Let’s take a quick look and compare some stat lines from Nola:

2018 Season: 17-6 (33 starts), 2.37 ERA (3.21 xFIP), 0.97 WHIP, 27% strikeouts, 7% walks, 0.72 HR/9, .251 BABIP.

Prior to May: 2-0 (six starts), 5.68 ERA (4.26 xFIP), 1.58 WHIP, 22.7% strikeouts, 9.7% walks, 1.99 HR/9, .345 BABIP.

Since May 1st: 4-1 (eight starts) 3.80 ERA (3.46 xFIP), 1.42 WHIP, 27.6% strikeouts, 10.7% walks, 0.80 HR/9, .336 BABIP.

I wouldn’t call him all the way back quite yet but he’s certainly a lot closer to his 2018 form since May 1st than he was at the start of the year. Yet, we are still getting a nice discount on a pitcher who was guaranteed to be over $10K every start last season. It doesn’t come without risk though, discount or not, this isn’t an easy match up against the first place Atlanta Braves. The good news is Nola has had success against them dating back to last season. In his last six starts against Atlanta, Nola is 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA (3.96 xFIP). I’m not going here in cash but I love Nola in tournaments today. Most of the field has been burned by him this season once or twice already and are unlikely to use him in a match up against Atlanta. His ceiling is still in-tact, despite the early season struggles, he’s heading in the right direction over the past month, and this price is difficult to ignore.

German Marquez | DK: $8.1K, FD: $7K | RHP | vs. San Diego  

The value pitching tier today is ugly and this is about as far down as I’m willing to go. Obviously, we have to address the elephant in the room first, this game is in Coors Field. Clearly, this adds to the risk. But Marquez has proven himself capable of putting up big games at home and this is a great match up against an improved but still strikeout prone San Diego Padres squad. They have just a .297 wOBA, .174 ISO, and an 85 wRC+. Even better, they have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against righties at 27%. This bodes well for Marquez even despite the less than ideal pitching environment. He has an excellent 3.40 SIERA and 1.16 WHIP with 23.8% strikeouts and just 5% walks. His ground ball rate is through the roof (53.9%) and he’s allowing only a .285 wOBA to lefties and a .298 wOBA to righties. He already faced the Padres at home once this season and went 5.2 innings, scattering 10 hits but only allowing two earned runs while striking out seven and walking none. The rest of the field is going to force bad pitchers into their lineups tonight because they are too afraid to use a pitcher at Coors. There’s added risk here but Marquez can pay off his salary. The Rockies are heavy -170 favorites as their offense should tee-off on Eric Lauer.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Oakland Athletics vs. Gerson Bautista (RHP) and Wade LeBlanc (LHP)

We’ve got an opener (Bautista) and follower (LeBlanc) situation happening with the Mariners today but it shouldn’t impact our ability to stack Oakland. With LeBlanc likely to throw the majority of the innings he’s the person I’m going to focus on the most. Oakland is a top five team in baseball against left-handed pitching this season, striking out just 17.9% of the time but carrying a .353 wOBA and .223 ISO. With LeBlanc being a below average strikeout pitcher, there should be a lot of contact in this game. He’s allowing 40% hard contact and 43.5% fly balls. Khris Davis (1.022 OPS, .368 ISO), Matt Chapman (.356 wOBA, .350 ISO), Stephen Piscotty (.404 wOBA, .206 ISO), Mark Canha (.372 wOBA, .268 ISO), and Chad Pinder (.353 wOBA, .215 ISO, 48.2% hard contact) all hit left-handed pitching very well and are high on my list today.

New York Yankees vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP – Chicago White Sox)

We’ll need to watch the weather for this game. Lopez’s numbers are scary bad. 5.74 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, 50.5% fly balls, 39.2% hard contact allowed, and a .381 wOBA allowed. He does have some strikeout ability but if he’s not missing bats it will be a very long (or short?) day for him. You can look at anyone in the Yankees lineup today, but I will point out Lopez is worse against lefties (6.53 xFIP, 1.81 WHIP, 17.8% strikeouts, 13.8% walks, and a .385 wOBA allowed). Hicks (.232 ISO), Gardner (.369 wOBA, .265 ISO), and Gregorius (.503 wOBA, .267 ISO – small sample) are in good spots. Sanchez (.403 wOBA, .381 ISO), Voit (.377 wOBA, .244 ISO), Torres (.369 wOBA, .265 ISO), and Frazier (.370 wOBA, .239 ISO) are all hitting right-handed pitching very well and make for excellent pieces of stacks or can be used as one-offs today.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Yu Darvish (RHP – Chicago Cubs)

Too many left-handed power hitters in this lineup for Darvish to survive. He has a 4.64 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, an average 21.3% strikeout rate with 11.3% walks, and he’s allowing a .354 wOBA to lefties this season. I’m stating the obvious here but Bellinger tops the list with his 1.178 OPS and 53% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. Muncy (.372 wOBA, .247 ISO), and Pederson (.411 wOBA, .389 ISO) all look like great options batting from the left-side against a right-handed pitcher. I would consider Verdugo in that mix as well. His .324 wOBA and .156 ISO against right-handed pitching aren’t overly exciting but he does have a 44.4% hard contact rate, which suggests he’s seeing the ball well but has been a bit unlucky. While I prefer the lefties, we know Darvish is just not the elite pitcher he once was. He has a solid 28.7% strikeout rate but also a very ugly 15.8% walk rate against right-handed hitters. Turner (.391 wOBA) is on the radar for this game as well.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Eloy Jimenez | DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.2K | OF | vs. Chad Green (RHP)

One of the advantages we can exploit with a true daily fantasy sport like baseball is that salaries for the next day’s slate come out before the current slate is finished. This can sometimes mean that someone swinging a really hot bad might take a couple extra days for his price to catch up to his production. Take Jimenez for example. He put up 41 DraftKings points last night but his salary dropped $200. He has three games with 20+ fantasy points in his last five. Over his last 20 starts he has six home runs, 15 RBI, a .683 wOBA+ISO, and a 2.24 FP/PA. You need to ride this hot streak as long as you can before the price eventually catches up. Again, watch the weather here just in case.

Shin-soo Choo |DK: $4.7K, FD: $3.6K | OF | vs. Tanner Roark (RHP)

Roark is so bad against lefties. A 2.00 WHIP? I didn’t think that was even possible. He walks (13.2%) nearly as many as he strikes out (17.1%) while allowing 44.7% fly balls and a .397 wOBA. Choo has a .623 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 games against a right-handed pitcher and a .636 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games. The Texas lefties as a whole are all in play here but Choo stood out to me on my stat sheet as a one off.

Bryce Harper |DK: $4.2K, FD: $4K | OF | vs. Sean Newcomb (LHP)

I’m not typically one to promote a lefty on lefty matchup, but Harper’s price on DraftKings in particular really makes him difficult to ignore. Newcomb has only thrown 12 innings in the majors this season so we’ll look at 2018 data. He struggles with walks, a lot. He also allows 40% fly balls and 40% hard contact to left-handed hitters. Harper has a .703 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 games against left-handed pitching including a 2.66 FP/PA. For what it’s worth, it’s a small sample, but he does have 13 plate appearances against Newcomb with two home runs and a ridiculous 1.257 wOBA+ISO.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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