By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Happy Hump Day to you all! We’ve got a juicy nine-game main slate on tap this evening and it’s sure to be a wild one! The slate provides some big-time arms, decent spots for value with some high risk/high reward pitchers, and a slew of offenses in great spots to provide some big-time upside. I’d like to shout out to the always-enthusiastic and... interesting LineStar chat for all the happy birthday wishes as well! You guys are some real ones!

Side note: It’s a busy day for content and I’ve got some work left to wrap up on the PGA newsletter for the US Open, so today’s MLB newsletter might be a bit more abridged... but I can't help myself from rambling sometimes so we'll see how that works out.

With that said, let’s party!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Looks like it’ll be another fairly stress-free day in the weather department!

ATL @ WAS (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Low-end chance for a pop-up storm to roll through.

TB @ NYY (7:05 ET, 7 O/U): Fairly cool temps (by mid-June standards) in the low 70s with 10 mph winds blowing IN from right. Sets up well for this potential pitcher’s duel.

PIT @ STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Another hot and humid day in STL with temps in the 90s and winds blowing OUT to left at 10+ mph.

SD @ CHC (8:05 ET, 12 O/U): Even better-hitting conditions than yesterday. Warm and humid with stiff winds blowing OUT to left at 15+ mph in the always wind-affected Wrigley Field. Significant bump to bats in a game that matches the Coors Field total with the highest O/U of the day.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.4k | @ NYY

The preface here is, yes, any pitcher can get rocked by this Yankees lineup so there’s always some risk taking the hurler going up against ‘em. But McClanahan has been borderline untouchable this season and had a strong outing against the Yanks back on May 29th where he came away with a 25.3 DKFP/46 FDFP performance. He leads all pitchers today in the following categories: 1.87 ERA, 2.01 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, 16.9% SwStr%. It’s shaping up to be a big-time pitcher’s duel today with Nestor Cortes also on the mound in this game. But the weather advantage in this game goes to the pitchers (not exactly hot and winds are blowing at 10 mph) and the Yankees are being pinned with a low 3.9 implied run total.

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.7k | vs. BAL

Berrios is back at home where he tends to be more of a safer option (averaging 37.6% more FP while at home) and he draws a match-up with an average Orioles offense that can provide some solid strikeout potential (23.7% kRate this season). A nice boost for Berrios is the fact that Toronto will check in as by far the heaviest favorites on the slate with -300 moneyline odds. We can probably look to get six or seven solid innings out of Berrios with a handful of strikeouts and an excellent shot at lining up for the win (and quality start) DFS bonus.

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.5k | @ WAS

The upside is obvious with Strider now that he’s essentially working as a fully stretched-out starter. He reached a pitch count of 92 in his last outing and checks in with a slate-best 36.8% kRate, which is even better than the aforementioned McClanahan (35.5% kRate). Once he nears about 80 pitches, he has seemed to lose a little gas but not much. My major concern here stems from the fact that Strider relies on his four-seam fastball on just over 70% of his pitches. Against four seamers, the Nationals are hitting .303 this season with an MLB-low 14.1% kRate. If he can mix in his slider along with his seldom-used change-up a bit more, he can definitely produce some upside at these DFS salaries, but he is a touch risky so proceed with caution!

Also Consider:

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.9k | @ NYM

Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.5k | vs. TB

Josh Winckowski (RHP), BOS | DK: $5k, FD: N/A | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Cleveland Guardians vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Konnor Pilkington (LHP), CLE

Other Stacks to Consider

Chicago Cubs vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

First off, as a reminder, the hitting conditions are exceptional at Wrigley Field today -- hot, humid, 15+ mph winds blowing out. Secondly, Ryan Weathers is making his season debut today and he has had a rough go at it in the minor leagues this season. In a dozen Triple-A starts (54.1 IP), he has accumulated a 7.29 ERA, 6.49 xFIP, 1.84 WHIP, 1.99 HR/9 Rate, with a measly 14.3% kRate. The Cubs were starting to trend up about a week-and-a-half ago but they have since gone on to lose eight straight. Regardless, they could jump on Weathers early on in this game and the hitting conditions obviously help their cause in a big way. The only downside is the Padres have a pretty strong bullpen to bring in if Weathers goes down quickly.

SD Bullpen Rating: 8/10 (Very Good)

Favorite CHC Bats: Willson Contreras, Ian Happ, Patrick Wisdom | Sneaky Bat: Nico Hoerner

Atlanta Braves vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

We go back to the well with my beloved Braves! I’m not a huge believer in relying on BvP but Erick Fedde has been a pitcher that the Braves bats have had a ton of success against and there’s a decently strong sample size to back that up. In 87 PA vs. this Braves lineup, Fedde has allowed a huge .387 AVG, .511 wOBA, .373 ISO, and seven HRs with only a 13.8% kRate. The Braves have blasted 17 home runs out in their last four games and the production is coming from all parts of the lineup. Over the last week, they’ve produced a .411 wOBA, .338 ISO, 163 wRC+, and no other MLB team is creating as much hard contact as Atlanta this season.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 3/10 (Poor)

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson, William Contreras | Sneaky Bat: Michael Harris II (getting less and less sneaky by the day)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

There is super-high risk here as the Rays check in with a slate-low 3.2 implied run total and take on Nestor Cortes who has been dominant this season. There are some pathways for a Rays stack to have some success though. Against LHPs at home, TB has posted some top 10 results: .281 AVG (ranks 4th), 122 wRC+ (10th), and a 17.8% kRate (7th lowest). Nestor Cortes has leaned on his cutter this season, throwing it on nearly 40% of his pitches. Only 5.9% of pitches seen by the Rays lineup have been cutters but it’s a pitch they’re hitting very well: .311 AVG, .365 wOBA, .180 ISO, 17.1% kRate. The hitting conditions are not great at Yankee Stadium today and Cortes has been lights out at home (1.50 ERA, .154 opp AVG, 0.80 WHIP). But Cortes did get beat up a bit in his last start and there’s potential for a few of these Rays bats to find some success against him today, albeit unlikely.

NYY Bullpen Rating: 8/10 (Very Good)

Favorite TB Bats: Ji-Man Choi, Manuel Margot, Yandy Diaz | Sneaky Bat: Taylor Walls

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Bruce Zimmermann (LHP), BAL

2B Jake Cronenworth | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Caleb Kilian (RHP), CHC

SS Dansby Swanson | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

1B CJ Cron | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Konnor Pilkington (LHP), CLE

C Willson Contreras | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Patrick Wisdom | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Bruce Zimmermann (LHP), BAL

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Caleb Kilian (RHP), CHC

OF Ian Happ | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Konnor Pilkington (LHP), CLE

2B/OF Brendan Donovan | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

OF Oscar Gonzalez | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Willson Contreras | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

A great birthday present for your boy today would be a Willy C bomb. He’s absolutely smoking lefty pitching this season to the tune of a .340 AVG, .546 wOBA, .540 ISO (!!!), 255 wRC+, and a ridiculous 43.8% HR/FB Rate on 52.6% HardContact%. He has blasted seven home runs off of lefties in only 50 at-bats against them this season. Against RHBs, Weathers has a career 2.20 HR/9 Rate and 21.6% HR/FB Rate. This will of course be his MLB season debut this evening but giving up the long ball was an issue for him this year in the minor leagues as well. He surrendered 12 HRs in 12 Triple-A starts resulting in a lofty 1.99 HR/9 Rate and 17.4% HR/FB Rate. The icing on the cake here, as you might imagine, is the fantastic hitting conditions in Wrigley today -- hot, humid, 15+ mph winds blowing out to left field. Contreras is coming off of a double-dinger day in yesterday’s game and if he gets two cracks at Weathers today, I love his chances of knocking another one over the ivy wall.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Shane McClanahan OVER 6.5 Strikeouts | -135 (PointsBet) | 2.5 Units

Sure, he is facing the mighty Yankees lineup but McClanahan recorded seven Ks when he faced them a couple of weeks ago and, overall, he has racked up at least seven Ks in 11-of-12 starts this season. He’s throwing some downright elite stuff and these -135 odds feel super soft compared to how often the Rays ace has been hitting this particular prop. It isn’t as if the Yankees bats are immune to strikeouts either. Their 23.5% kRate vs. LHPs is the ninth-highest in the MLB.

Rafael Devers OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -123 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

Devers is swinging a stick of dynamite right now with home runs in his last three games. He’s hit for multiple bases in 13 of his last 20 games and will get two or three at-bats against A’s RHP James Kaprielian today. Against LHBs, like Devers, Kaprielian has posted a poor .400 wOBA, .572 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, and 2.65 HR/9 Rate this season. We can look for Devers to either get multiple hits, an extra-base hit, or perhaps both in this match-up this evening.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!