By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Guys, it’s time to get serious. We can’t be messing around when there’s a 15-game main slate waiting on deck. One may look at this slate, then look in the mirror and think “am I a pathetic loser? Can I really handle a slate of this magnitude?” We'll have none of that nonsense! All I see are worthy winners in the LineStar community who know how to handle a big ol’ broad of a slate. And THAT proves my point. Let’s get it.

Note: Game 2 of the PIT @ STL doubleheader is excluded from the FanDuel main slate, so it’ll be a 14-gamer over there.

(This intro was probably very confusing for anyone who wasn’t in chat yesterday. Sorry about that.)

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Oh, happy day. No rain delays or postponements to worry about! There will be some notable winds and warm temperatures to take note of in a few spots.

PIT @ STL (7:45 ET, 9 O/U): Game 2, DK main slate only. Humid with temps in the mid-90s and 10 mph winds blowing a bit right to left, a bit OUT to left.

SD @ CHC (8:05 ET, 11 O/U): Peep the O/U here. It’s the same total as the Coors Field game. Why? It’ll be hot (around 90 degrees at first pitch), humid, and there will be 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to left at Wrigley Field, which is the most wind-affected ballpark in the MLB. Clear bump to hitters here.

CLE @ COL (8:40 ET, 11 O/U): It’ll be around 80-85 degrees throughout this game. Despite some light winds coming IN from left field, it’s still some nice Coors hitting weather.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.5k | @ LAA

In a volatile sport like baseball, consistency is hard to come by but Gonsolin has been defying the odds. Across his last seven starts, he’s come away with a DFS score anywhere between 21-26 DKFP/33-43 FDFP while posting a 1.58 ERA, 3.34 xFIP, 0.73 WHIP, .141 opp AVG, and 27.9% kRate. He throws quite a few split-finger fastballs, much more than league average as those pitched have made up 27.5% of his pitches thrown. Against split-finger fastballs this season, the Angels have only a .200 wOBA and .042 ISO with a massive 47.9% kRate. The LAA bats have been waking up recently but they can still provide a ton of strikeouts which can counterbalance some of Gonsolin’s pitch count concerns (he hasn’t thrown more than 92 pitches in a game this season).

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.6k | @ DET

Cease is simply mispriced on DraftKings given the fact that he leads all pitchers on the slate with a 32.7% kRate and 15.6% Swinging Strike Rate. Detroit has been the least dangerous offense in the MLB -- their 67 wC+ vs. RHPs easily ranks dead last. They also offer up a high 24.7% kRate and have very little power throughout their lineup (.087 ISO in L2Wks). Some 8 mph winds blowing in from left field at Comerica Park today will minimize Detroit’s already low home run chances. We can expect significant (DraftKings) ownership on Cease today. If you want to pivot off of him in GPPs, that’s fine, but he should make for a great cash play.

Zach Eflin (RHP), PHI | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.4k | vs. MIA

There isn’t a ton of standout pitching value today but Eflin is a viable arm with GPP upside who won’t break the bank. He has been significantly better at home this season where, in 31.0 IP, he has posted a rock-bottom 1.16 ERA with a strong 3.16 xFIP, 0.77 WHIP, .164 opp AVG, and a 25.0% kRate. Eflin’s 29.5% HardHit% allowed is also the second-lowest among SPs on the slate and he leads all pitchers today with an 84.7 mph average exit velocity. The Marlins got the best of Eflin when they faced him earlier in the season and there is some poor BvP history here. However, the positive splits at home seem legit and Eflin has shown he has the potential to score 30+ DKFP/50+ FDFP.

Also Consider:

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.4k | vs. TB

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.3k | vs. OAK

Tyler Mahle (RHP), CIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.6k | @ ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Cleveland Guardians vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

*Colorado Rockies vs. Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE

It's not the best spot against Bieber but the Rockies should have low ownership today.

Other Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves vs. Jackson Tetreault (RHP), WAS

The Braves continue to stay hot with their win streak now up to a dozen. In the month of June, they’ve posted a .382 wOBA (ranks 3rd), .269 ISO (2nd), and 143 wRC+ (3rd) while leading the MLB with a 42.2% HardContact%. Due to a lengthy rain delay, Josiah Gray got his start pushed back yesterday but he won’t be on the mound for the Nats today. Instead, they’ll opt to hand the ball to RHP Jackson Tetreault who will be making his MLB debut. Tetreault has posted some very middling numbers across 12 starts in Triple-A this year: 4.19 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, 1.55 HR/9 with a 20.9% kRate, and 9.6% BB%. Atlanta could easily jump on the inexperienced righty early on in this game and force Washington to rely heavily on bullpen arms.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 3/10 (Poor)

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson, Matt Olson | Sneaky Bat: Michael Harris II

San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

In a vacuum, this is a pretty neutral match-up. Recently, the Padres have been right around league average in terms of production versus RHPs. Kyle Hendricks hasn’t been great (5.22 ERA, 4.87 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP) but he’s not a total gas can. The most appealing aspect about this Padres stack is the extremely positive hitting environment they’ll be playing in today. As noted in the weather section, it’ll be hot (around 90 degrees at first pitch), and humid, and there will be 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left at Wrigley Field, which is the most wind-affected ballpark in the MLB. The total in this game is the exact same as the Coors Field match-up and the Padres' 5.8 implied runs are the second-most on the slate, just barely behind the Guardians (5.9 implied runs). Expect some nice production from the visiting Pads offense today.

CHC Bullpen Rating: 7/10 (Good)

Favorite SD Bats: Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Jurickson Profar | Sneaky Bat: Trent Grisham

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Drew Hutchinson (RHP)/Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

There are ‘safer’ stacks to go to today but the White Sox offense is looking at what should be a complete bullpen game for the Tigers. Hutchinson is slated as the opener and should pitch an inning or two. He has nothing special going for him this season with a 4.60 ERA, a terrible 5.38 xFIP, and a rough 1.53 WHIP. LHP Tyler Alexander is expected to eat up a few of the middle innings. In 12.1 IP this season, he has come away with an 8.76 ERA, 5.02 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, and a 2.19 HR/9 Rate. Overall this season, the White Sox offense has struggled. However, their bats have shown some life lately (.330 wOBA, 117 wRC+ L2Wks) and they’re much, much better against lefties. In fact, their .295 AVG, .364 wOBA, and 140 wRC+ vs. LHPs leads the entire MLB. So, even if they don’t do much against Hutchinson early on, they could find some legitimate success during the innings Tyler Anderson is on the mound.

DET Bullpen Rating: 5/10 (Average)

Favorite CWS Bats: Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, AJ Pollock | Sneaky Bat: Danny Mendick

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), TB

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

*1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.7k, FD: N/A | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

2B Jake Cronenworth | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF JD Martinez | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jared Koenig (LHP), OAK

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. DET Bullpen

1B Matt Olson | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jackson Tetreault (RHP), WAS

*DK Main Slate Only

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jurickson Profar | DK: $4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

1B/C Christian Bethancourt | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jackson Tetreault (RHP), WAS

*OF Tyler O'Neill | DK: $3.2k, FD: N/A | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

OF Oscar Gonzalez | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

OF Austin Slater | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

2B/3B Ezequiel Duran | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

*DK Main Slate Only

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Matt Olson | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jackson Tetreault (RHP), WAS

This is another spot for the Braves where I really wanted to roll out William Contreras but, alas, he is not in the lineup today. But Olson steps in a strong home run call today as well. He’s creating a 44.2% HardContact% against RHPs this season with a strong .231 ISO. He should get a couple of cracks at the inexperienced RHP Jackson Tetreault, who makes his MLB debut today and has shown some issues with giving up the long ball during his time in the minor leagues. In 12 starts (58.0 IP) in Triple-A this year, he has a fairly high 1.55 HR/9 Rate paired with a 17.5% HR/FB Rate. The Nationals bullpen also has a very lofty 2.28 HR/9 Rate and 21.3% HR/FB Rate over the last two weeks. Look for Matty O to go yard today!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Tony Gonsolin OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | -140 (FanDuel) | 2.5 Units

Gonsolin doesn’t have that long 100-pitch count leash that many other top-level starters possess but he has just been so damn solid lately and has come away with a 27.9% kRate over his last seven starts. He faces an Angels lineup that offers up a ton of strikeouts to opposing pitchers and over the last two weeks vs. RHPs, they lead the MLB with their 28.5% kRate. Even if he only throws around 85 pitches, Gonsolins should be able to hit the six strikeout threshold and cash this prop this evening.

AJ Pollock OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Pollock has recorded multiple hits in five consecutive games and is batting atop of the order for the Chicago White Sox as they take on the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are not going with a traditional starter today and will instead rely on their bullpen to make it through this game. RHP Drew Hutchinson and LHP Tyler Alexander are expected to handle the majority of the innings. Against RHBs this season, Hutchinson is allowing a .256 AVG and .334 wOBA while Anderson (the expected “bulk reliever”) is allowing a .297 AVG and.394 wOBA. 13 of Pollock’s 39 hits this season have gone for extra bases so he won’t necessarily need another multi-hit game to cash this prop. With the White Sox playing on the road today, that will also guarantee they'll hit in the ninth inning which could lead to an extra at-bat for Pollock -- that never hurts!

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!