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- Top MLB DFS Plays 6/14 | Friday Quick Hits
Top MLB DFS Plays 6/14 | Friday Quick Hits
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Since Greg covers the newsletters on the weekends, Iād like to go ahead and wish a Happy Fatherās Day to all the dads out there! Hope you gentlemen enjoy your day on Sunday. Things are a bit busy for me today so this newsletter will be one of the āquick hitsā variety. But with a full 15 game slate, Iāll be looking to throw out some additional plays in exchange of more in-depth, detailed blurbs on fewer pitchers/hitters/stacks. Also, for some reason, I woke up this morning with a stiff left wrist, which is making typing a bit uncomfortable. Iāll be turning 30 tomorrow so I guess itās only appropriate for some unexplained pain in random body parts to become more routine. But let me shut up and get into this slate before my hair starts turning gray! Grumble, grumble, grumble.
Todayās match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!
Pitchers to Consider
Gerrit Cole (DK: $11.9k, FD: $12k) | RHP | HOU vs. TOR
If youāre spending up, going all the way to the very top to Cole would seem like both the safe play and the upside play. Cole is pitching the lights out at home this season with a 40.7% kRate and an impossibly low 1.82 xFIP. Toronto is rapidly improving versus RHP, but on the year, they still rank 27th with a 78 wRC+ and .287 wOBA. They should provide Cole with plenty of strikeouts with a 24.8% kRate as well. The Astros are comfortably the largest favorites on the slate with a -280 moneyline.
Blake Snell (DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k) | LHP | TB vs. LAA
Judging by early indications, thereās not a lot of love going around for the Snellzilla tonight. That should make him a perfect pivot in GPPs. Heās more dangerous at home where he has a 2.91 ERA, 2.75 xFIP, 34.9% kRate, 0.97 WHIP, while allowing a .202 AVG. With a 14.1% team kRate versus LHPs, the Angels are the toughest team to strikeout in baseball. But if Snell can turn up the heat, then there is always room for statistical averages to have their outliers.
Andrew Heaney (DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.9k) | LHP | LAA @ TB
Going from Snell over to his counterpart, we have Andrew Heaney. He will be making just his fourth start of 2019 but has already struck out 28 batters in just 16.2 innings resulting in a massive 41.8% kRate. If you can live with the runs, he will almost inevitably give up, he carries as much strikeout upside as anyone on the docket considering the Rays have a league high 28.3% kRate versus LHPs.
Eduardo Rodriguez (DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k) | LHP | BOS @ BAL
Typically, I only like using Rodriguez at home but you can look at his game logs and see that he rarely struggles at Camden Yards. In eight career starts (45 innings pitched) in Baltimore, he has a 2.80 ERA, 27% kRate, 1.13 WHIP, and .208 AVG allowed. When he faced the Oās in Fenway earlier this year, he had his best fantasy outing of the season (29.2 DKFP, 48 FDFP). Trey Mancini, Renato Nunez, and Chance Sisco are the biggest threats that E-Rod will need to deal with -- otherwise, he could easily run through the rest of these guys on his way to a great, productive day on the mound.
Tyler Mahle (DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.4k) | RHP | CIN vs. TEX
Targeting the Rangers yesterday didnāt really work out all too well but Mahle has performed great in three home starts this year (vs. MIA, LAD, WAS) where he has posted a 2.25 ERA, 30% kRate, and allowing a .193 opponent batting average. Texas is a very dangerous team against righties, even when they go on the road, where they have a .339 wOBA (6th), .347 OBP (2nd), and 113 wRC+ (6th). The Rangers will lose the DH spot tonight, so there is a bit of a boost to Mahleās potential here. Great value to be had if he can continue his home trends.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, thereās no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Coors Field Notice: The Rockies (6.6 implied runs) and Padres (5.9 implied runs) are, by default, two top stacks of the day if you feel like paying up for them.
Cleveland Indians vs. Ryan Carpenter (LHP, Detroit Tigers)
In 19.2 home innings, Carpenter has a 10.53 ERA with just an 11.6% kRate while allowing a .375 AVG/.445 wOBA. Heās surrendering a huge .313 ISO to RHBs and .207 ISO to LHBs. The Indians best hitters against lefties this season have been: Francisco Lindor, Roberto Perez, and Carlos Santana. Iād also expect Jordan Luplow to slide into the order considering he has destroyed lefty pitching this year (.447 wOBA, .433 ISO).
Houston Astros vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP, Toronto Blue Jays)
Sanchez just doesnāt really strike out many people (13.5% kRate) and his 1.63 WHIP is among the worst on the slate. He may not surrender too many dingers -- 1.00 HR/9 on 34.4% Hard Contact -- but this is certainly a pitcher who the Astros can string together runs against. Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, and Robinson Chirinos would be my preferred guys to target.
Atlanta Braves vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP, Philadelphia Phillies)
Pivetta has broken out of an early season slump to recently string together three strong outings, including a complete game, one run performance in his last start (vs. CIN). Perhaps that will scare people away from rostering these hot Braves bats. Atlanta is on a seven game win streak in which they have scored seven or more runs five times. On the season, Pivetta is still allowing a .210+ ISO to both sides of the plate and I wouldnāt hesitate to roll out guys like Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, and the red hot Ozzie Albies, among others.
One-Off Hitters
Here Iāll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a āone-offā piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Charlie Blackmon (DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k) | OF | vs. RHP Cal Quantrill
If I were taking one Coors bat on the night, Blackmon would be tough to get away from. Heās blowing the cover off the ball lately with a .626 wOBA, .640 ISO, and four homers in the last week (two last night). Quantrill is a promising young pitcher who can definitely hold his own against RHBs. But against LHBs this season, he is giving up a .436 wOBA and .317 ISO on 49% Hard Contact. I would assume the odds that Blackmon goes yard again tonight to be almost an even money bet.
Eugenio Suarez (DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k) | 3B | vs. Texas Rangers
Jesse Chavez is set to open for the Rangers tonight and indications point towards Drew Smyly seeing extended innings out of the bullpen. Suarez is a bit of a streaky hitter and, after hitting a solo-homer in his last game, Iām hoping to catch him as he gets set to go on another tear. Heās been more of a force at home this season, with a .307 AVG, .408 wOBA, .267 ISO and is hitting on 55.3% Hard Contact. In hopes that his two week slump is behind him, Suarez will be my home run call of the evening š£ -- I felt like taking Blackmon would almost be like cheating. (:
Chance Sisco (DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | C | vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
If youāre not pitching E-Rod tonight then taking Sisco makes sense considering heās rocking a .451 wOBA and .409 ISO in his six games this season. Rodriguezās poor reverse splits also stand out, as he is allowing a .435 wOBA and .362 ISO on a 4.05 HR/9 Rate to lefty bats this season. Weāll see if the Orioles realize that and keep Sisco at the clean up spot in the order tonight.
Starlin Castro (DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k) | 2B | vs. LHP Steven Brault
If you want to roster a guy like Cole, then you gotta pay down somewhere and Castro remains dirt cheap. Sure, his quality games are a bit sparse lately but heāll be hitting from the clean up spot and Steven Brault is a below average lefty that allows RHBs a .286 AVG and .391 wOBA. When the Marlins have a 4.5 implied run total, you know the opposing pitcher is suspect. Castro can certainly deliver a couple of hits with perhaps a run or RBI thrown into the mix, which would be perfectly fine value by me.
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