By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Feeling the Monday blues? Well, how about a 13-game MLB slate to cheer ya up? Just don’t let the boss catch you getting that early research in. We should probably expect another relatively high-scoring day in baseball. The selection of pitchers is not overly stout and the only two guys who I would consider aces (Lance Lynn & Tyler Glasnow) are facing off against each other in a pitcher’s duel. To the dismay of many, Coors Field is also back on tap with the Padres in town. Temperatures in Colorado will be nearly 100 degrees (!) at the time of first pitch so look out for some fly balls with a ton of carry in that game. “To Coors, or not to Coors?” will be a big question you’ll have to answer for yourself today on this slate. Okay, plenty to get to… new week, new money -- let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️☁️

PIT @ WAS: Rain is set to come through immediately after this game likely ends. As long as that continues to be the case, then there should be no issues here. But check the forecast before lock to make sure that rain won’t arrive earlier than when it’s currently expected.

TOR @ BOS: It’s a rainy day in Boston but the hope is that most of the storm coverage is out of the area by first pitch. If it isn’t, there’s potential for a late start or perhaps they just play through some lighter rain.

CHC @ NYM: Moderate chance of pop-up isolated showers with rain chances increasing later in the evening. If one of those storms lingers over the ballpark, there would be some legitimate PPD risk. Too far out to tell right now so, once again, check the outlook closer to lock.

DET @ KC: Around 90-95 degrees for most of this game. Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #5 hitter’s park this season. Bats get a solid bump.

SD @ COL: As mentioned in the intro, temperatures are going to be well into the 90s for much of this game. The best hitter’s park gets even better.

ARI @ SF: It will be cool with temps in the high-50s but winds will be blowing out to center at 15 mph. Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind impacts, but those may be strong enough to give the bats a bump.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Adam Wainwright (RHP) | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8k | vs. MIA

Prefacing this by saying I would not have many issues rolling with one of the arms in the big pitcher’s duel of the day (Glasnow or Lynn) and I lean slightly towards Glasnow there. But, neither one of those guys is in a super enticing match-up so there is some added risk paying up there. When it comes to Wainwright, you aren’t really expecting double-digit strikeout upside when you roster him. Rather, you’re looking to get a guy who can throw around 100 pitches, get into the seventh or eighth inning with limited hits/runs allowed, and ultimately put himself in a good position to earn a win -- if all of that goes to plan, you’ll usually see Waino rack up six or seven strikeouts along the way. He’s been solid at home this season where he has put up a 2.62 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, and a 0.93 WHIP. The Marlins have been a very average offense against RHPs (94 wRC+, ranks 17th) and the back half of their lineup offers up a ton of strikeouts and very little hit/run potential. St. Louis currently comes into this slate as the heaviest favorite of the day (-190).

Kenta Maeda (RHP) | DK: $7.4k, FD: $6.6k | @SEA

To start off, there’s a good amount of risk here so consider this a GPP only play. Maeda was one of the more consistent SPs around last season but that has not exactly been the case this year. The strikeouts are way down in 2021 and most of his metrics are either around league average or below. Maeda is also coming off the IL with an arm injury after not pitching in an MLB game since 5/22. He did get a rehab start in at the Triple-A level last Wednesday where he threw 54 pitches (one ER, five Ks). Maeda most certainly won’t be fully stretched out but there is potential for a strong “fantasy point per dollar” value if he can push for about 80 throws. The Mariners are hitting a league-worst .210 vs. RHPs this year with a lackluster 87 wRC+ (ranks 22nd) while striking out 26.0% of the time. Seattle is also being pinned with just a 3.6 implied run total today -- the second lowest total of the slate. It will take a bit of good fortune, but Maeda is absolutely a better pitcher than what he has shown much of this season. Let’s see if he can begin looking like the 2020 version of himself in this plus match-up.

Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP) | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.1k | @ MIL

This does feel a bit “point chase-y” and I’m always hesitant to roll out a pitcher who is facing the same team in back-to-back starts within the span of a week. However, if Gutierrez can manage to replicate his last performance against these Brewers, this would be a great value. The big takeaway from his last start was that he was allowed to go 102 pitches deep which resulted in 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, a win, and 23.8 DKFP/46 FDFP. Through three starts and 17.0 IP, Gutierrez has an enticing 2.65 ERA… but his 5.17 xFIP in that stretch is mighty concerning. He is allowing just a 30.9% HardHit% with a 47.9% Ground Ball Rate. If he can maintain those numbers, he should continue to find decent success even if he isn’t the biggest strikeout guy. The Brewers are a pretty hot offense right now (109 wRC+ last 14 days), but if they regress back towards their season averages (in which they rank bottom five versus RHPs by most key metrics) then Gutierrez could come away as a strong value option on this ho-hum pitching slate.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️ Coors Field should see its usual high ownership between the Padres and Rockies -- it’s hard to hate on the chalk Coors bats today with those HOT gametime temps in Colorado. Behind those two teams, I imagine ownership will be mostly spread out and there is no one or two specific team that stand out to me at the moment. With so many average/below average starting pitchers on the mound today, you could make a case to stack just about any team on this slate.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

The Cards get a shot at an inexperienced lefty today. St. Louis has been excellent against lefty pitching this season and their 118 wRC+ vs. LHPs trails only the White Sox and Astros on the year. Garrett has 14.2 IP at the MLB level and has a 6.14 ERA in that stretch with a 1.70 WHIP and just a 20.0% kRate. He’ll be supported by a fairly solid Marlins bullpen but I believe the Cardinals can do plenty of damage regardless. There will also be warm 90-degree temperatures in play at Busch Stadium today, which can only help hitters.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Spencer Howard (RHP), PHI

The Dodgers, and most west coast offenses in general, seem to go significantly overlooked and under-owned. However, today should be a day where you should throw some strong consideration out west. The Dodgers lead the MLB with a 126 wRC+ at home and their 119 wRC+ vs. RHPs is also tops in the majors. Spencer Howard has a poor 5.02 xFIP this year along with a 1.54 WHIP. He should likely only be expected to throw about three innings in this game before giving way to a Phillies bullpen which has a league-high 18.0% HR/FB Rate and is stranding just 69.5% of baserunners this season.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants (LHBs) vs. Matt Peacock (RHP), ARI

The Giants aren’t in a bad spot by any means, but as mentioned above with the Dodgers, there is a notable reluctance among MLB DFS players when it comes to stacking these west coast teams. The Giants are also coming off of a road series against the Nationals where they scored only three runs across four games (though, two of those games were seven inning doubleheader games). They’ll get a shot at Matt Peacock, who is trending down in a big way. Peacock has been awful against lefty bats as well (8.59 ERA, 4.96 xFIP, .405 wOBA, 3.07 HR/9) and the Giants will likely be rolling out six left-handed bats in their lineup today. Peacock will be backed up by a bottom ten D-Backs bullpen and there will be those 15 mph winds blowing out to center at Oracle Park tonight.

One-Off & Value Hitters ☝️

One-off bats to consider outside of teams highlighted above in the stack section.

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | Marco Gonzalez (RHP), SEA

OF Tommy Pham | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

3B Patrick Wisdom | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Jon Lester (LHP), CHC

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below are just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. JC Mejia (RHP), CLE

OF Bryan Reynolds | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jon Lester (LHP), CHC

OF Odubel Herrera | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

C Max Stassi | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), OAK

OF Akil Baddoo | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

OF Aristides Aquino | $2.4k, FD: $2k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Brandon Crawford | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Matt Peacock (RHP), ARI

Crawford has launched nine homers off of righty pitching this season behind a .275 ISO and 36.7% HardHit% (43.5% HardHit% over the last month). As mentioned above, Peacock has been awful against lefty bats this season. He’s allowing a massive .311 ISO, 3.07 HR/9 Rate, and 35.7% HR/FB Rate to the left side of the plate. With those 15 mph winds blowing out to center field at Oracle Park (with occasional 20+ mph gusts forecasted), I’ll look for Crawford to muscle one out of the park tonight.

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