By Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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Another mid-sized main slate awaits us as we look to tackle the nine MLB games that fall onto the docket today. Between the Stanley Cup Game 7 last night, NBA Finals Game 6 this evening, and the US Open kicking off this morning, it’s a great week to be a sports fan. But the MLB regular season grind is a train with no brakes. Let’s hop on and find out what tonight brings us!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

TOR @ BAL: Decent amount of rain coverage is possible during this game. The skies clear late so a ‘delay and play’ is possible. Postponement seems unlikely but can’t be completely ruled out currently.

ARI @ WAS: Another game where we could see a delay. If they announce a late start early, you’ll feel a lot better about the starting pitchers. Bats should be safe regardless.

TEX @ BOS: They may play through some light rain for a decent chunk of this one. Still some delay risk. Temps in the 50s give a boost to pitchers.

STL @ NYM: The same rain system affecting Boston could cause a delay in New York. Not a major threat to result in a postponement, however. We’ll have a much better outlook on these games closer to first pitch.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

David Price (DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.8k) | LHP | BOS vs. TEX

As Justin Verlander showed us last night, strikeouts reign supreme in MLB DFS. Now, there’s not an arm on this slate quite on his level, but Price has a pretty comparable ceiling to any pitcher that is above him in salary today so you’ll save a few hundred bucks if you choose to drop down to him. We know that the Rangers' offense can be targeted via pitching when they face a lefty on the road. They have a league-high 31.7% kRate and a below average 83 wRC+ against LHPs away from Globe Life Park. Price has been solid for the majority of his starts this season, even in tougher match-ups, and he’s allowing <35% Hard Contact to both sides of the plate. He’s also been lights out at home, with a 1.08 ERA, 3.01 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, 32.3% kRate, while allowing just a .212 wOBA. I mentioned in the weather section that the temps will be pretty brisk in Boston, and the overall conditions should favor pitchers. Price and the Red Sox are the heaviest favorites on the day at -220. 

Jon Gray (DK: $8.3k, FD: $7.5k) | RHP | COL vs. SD

There are certainly safer pitchers to roll out instead of Gray, who is taking the mound at Coors Field. However, across his entire career with the Rockies, Gray has statistically been a better pitcher at home than on the road. That same trend is holding true this season for him in many metrics and he has also only allowed three home runs in 30 innings pitched at Coors Field this season. He’s had a pretty decent (fantasy) performance against the Padres at home already this year (6 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 ER, 8 K) which resulted in 18.1 DKFP/37 FDFP. For his salaries and the way pitchers are so often getting blown up this year, I’d happily take a similar performance. The Padres do, of course, have several bats with power and have hit three homers off of Gray in two games on the season. But as a team, their .171 ISO versus RHPs ranks 19th and they lead the league with a 26.9% kRate against righties. There is a decent window for Gray to snag seven to nine punch outs as well as a win bonus considering the Rockies are -150 home favorite.

Homer Bailey (DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.7k) | RHP | KC vs. DET

If you want to load up on big bats, then Bailey stands out as perhaps the most viable option among the dirt cheap tier of pitchers. There’s probably a 50% chance that the Bailey play works out but he is obviously extremely affordable and the match-up can’t get much better. Against RHPs on the road, the Tigers have a league-high 28.4% kRate paired with a 78 wRC+ (26th). Bailey has also been more serviceable at home with a not-so-abysmal 4.23 xFIP and 21.6% kRate. I think we’d all take a similar outing that Bailey had in his first match-up with the Tigers back on May 4th when he ended with 16.1 DKFP/34 FDFP. Detroit could also be without their typical lead-off man and one of their better hitters in Niko Goodrum, who is dealing with a knee bruise.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field Notice: The Rockies (6.1 implied runs) and Padres (5.4 implied runs) are a couple top stacks to consider by default.

Boston Red Sox vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP, Texas Rangers)

Expected Ownership: Medium

Sampson has been on a bit of a tear recently but the Red Sox may have plans to bring that to an end. At home against righties, Boston has a .348 wOBA (3rd) with a .194 ISO (10th) and produce plenty of runs with a 111 wRC+ (7th). Sampson has been strong at home but in his 21.0 innings pitched on the road, he is posting a 6.00 ERA, 6.45 xFIP, 14.3% kRate, and 1.71 WHIP while allowing a .410 wOBA and a massive 54.1% Hard Contact Rate. Some of the hottest hitters against RHPs in the last month include: Xander Bogaerts (.446 wOBA, .250 ISO, 181 wRC+), JD Martinez (.392 wOBA, .339 ISO, 145 wRC+), and, for some salary relief, Jackie Bradley Jr. (.362 wOBA, .276 ISO, 125 wRC+).

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Gabriel Ynoa (RHP, Baltimore Orioles)

Expected Ownership: Medium/Low

Ynoa has spent much of this season coming out of the bullpen in advantageous situations but, even with that in mind, his numbers aren’t great and he isn’t a guy we should shy away from stacking against. He’s shown some poor reverse splits tendencies, as he is allowing a .398 wOBA and .215 ISO to right-handed hitters. This will only be his fourth start of the season and if Toronto can cause him to get pulled early, they’ll see several innings against an improving, but still below average, O’s bullpen. The Blue Jays offense isn’t great by any means, but a few guys that should be serviceable include: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.352 wOBA, .193 ISO vs. RHP), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.357 wOBA, .227 ISO), and Justin Smoak (.403 wOBA, .276 ISO) who should be looking to break out of his slump soon.

Chicago White Sox vs. JA Happ (LHP, New York Yankees)

Expected Ownership: Low

The White Sox are a very unpredictable hot/cold offense and JA Happ has been pitching well as of late but I like the leverage to be had by taking some of these Chicago bats. Happ may have found his plate control lately but it doesn’t negate the fact that, over the course of the season, he can find ways to struggle -- particularly with righties, which this White Sox team is full of. Happ has allowed a .239 ISO to RHBs resulting in 13 home runs (2.14 HR/9) on 42.7% Hard Contact. If he has one of those days where he has a hard time with his control, there are some opposing batters who can take advantage of his mistakes. The best CWS hitters against southpaws this season include: James McCann (.455 wOBA, .233 ISO, 186 wRC+), Jose Abreu (.365 wOBA, .152 ISO, 126 wRC+), and Leury Garcia (.369 wOBA, .135 ISO, 129 wRC+). 

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Didi Gregorius (DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k) | SS | vs. RHP Ivan Nova

If you’re not stacking the Yankees against Nova, Gregorius makes for an affordable way to gain exposure to an offense with an implied total of 5.5 runs. Didi has multiple hits in all three of his starts since returning to this Yankees lineup. Last season, he had 22 homers off of RHPs with a .358 wOBA and .256 ISO. Nova has been woeful against lefty hitters this year, to whom he is giving up a .417 wOBA, .217 ISO, and 1.66 HR/9. I would assume with a couple days rest that Gregorius will be back in the lineup. He’ll be my home run call for this evening. 💣

JaCoby Jones (DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.7k) | OF | vs. RHP Homer Bailey

Even if Jones doesn’t get the lead off spot again tonight (with Niko Goodrum potentially out), I’m fine with rolling Jones out against Bailey as a one-off hitter in an otherwise underwhelming offense. Jones has been terrific over the last month, as he’s hitting for a .360 AVG, .452 wOBA, .313 ISO, and has belted six home runs with 17 RBI and four stolen bases. If you’re not rolling Homer Bailey out as a value SP2, using Jones against him makes plenty of sense.

Kike Hernandez (DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k) | 2B/OF | vs. LHP Jon Lester

Going with a trio of affordable one-off batters today -- Kike will wrap things up as the cheapest of the bunch. Hernandez is rarely usable against RHPs but that often keeps his DFS salaries down. When he gets a shot at a lefty, he’s worth firing up. Against LHPs, Kike has a .362 wOBA and .210 ISO on an elite 53% Hard Contact Rate. All nine home runs that Lester has given up this season have been at the hands of righties. Lester has shown some struggles on the mound as of late, with 21 earned runs allowed across his last five starts (27 innings pitched) and he has surrendered six home runs in that time. Given the RvL match-up, we should expect Hernandez to slot in towards the top half of the order, perhaps lead off, and bring some upside to the table at a very affordable price tag.

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