By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Welcome back for another fun week of MLB DFS mayhem! We kick off the work week with a healthy 10-game main slate. If you want to know the best plays of the day, make sure to tag @MarkRulz in LineStar chat to get his thoughts on this slate. Otherwise, keep on reading to see who your boy is looking to target today! I hope everyone’s staying nice and cool if you’re in a part of the country getting hit by this heat wave! It's in the triple-digits over in my neck of the woods (South Carolina)... no fun. We’ll see some warmer temps in a few of these outdoor ballparks as well so… look out for some dingers!

P.S. Everyone wish a happy birthday to @Billy in chat!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There will be a couple of spots where a storm or two may impact play but any sort of postponements would be unlikely. A few games will be played in some warm conditions as well, including a scorcher out in STL.

ATL @ WAS (7:05 ET, 10 O/U): There’s a moderate chance some pop-up storms could impact play here and force a delay. A postponement isn’t likely but an in-game delay does place more risk on starting pitchers. Warm temps in the mid-80s throughout the game.

MIA @ PHI (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Temps in the mid-80s.

PIT @ STL (7:45 ET, 9.5 O/U): Near 100 degrees at first pitch! Winds close to 10 mph blowing OUT to left. Bump to bats here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.8k | vs. BAL

Manoah will step in as a great floor option today. He’s pitched at least six full innings in 10-of-11 starts this season while posting a 1.81 ERA, 3.75 xFIP, and 0.96 WHIP. His fairly average 22.3% kRate is down from the 27.7% kRate he came away with during his 2021 rookie season. However, he does draw a nice match-up with an Orioles team that has struck out 24.4% of the time versus RHPs in the last two weeks. The red hot Blue Jays are also by far the heaviest favorites of the slate (-295 ML odds) so Manoah should be expected to receive that win bonus today which can offset some lack of extreme strikeout upside. His ownership will be very high but he’ll make for a great cash play.

Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.7k | @ CHC

Darvish has been a little volatile throughout this season but he has been trending up over the last few weeks. In each of his last four starts, he has pitched at least 6.2 innings while averaging 102.8 pitches/gm. In that time, he has come away with a 2.22 ERA, 4.02 xFIP, 0.78 WHIP, .188 opp AVG, and a 21% kRate. The Cubbies have been sneaky good against RHPs lately (133 wRC+ L2Wks) and they’ve drastically cut down on their strikeouts (17.4% kRate L2Wks). But Darvish should be able to pitch very deep into this game against one of his former teams. In 28 career starts at Wrigley Field, he has a strong 3.06 xFIP and 31.9% kRate so perhaps he can channel some of that K upside in his former home ballpark.

Zack Thompson (LHP), STL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $6.2k | vs. PIT

Not to be confused with Pirates' Zach Thompson, the Cardinals' Zack Thompson will be making only his second career MLB appearance and his first career start. In 10 Triple-A starts this year, Thompson recorded an excellent 30.1% kRate with a 1.15 WHIP and 3.65 xFIP. Pittsburgh has been close to a league-average offense against LHPs in the last two weeks (99 wRC+), however, they have struck out at a massive 32.8% clip. At these bottom-of-the-barrel DFS salaries, you don’t need an incredible performance out of Thompson to receive proper value. He’s a great GPP SP2 option on DraftKings, specifically. He’s not safe by any means, but he would certainly unlock a ton of big bat options.

Also Consider:

Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.3k | @ PHI

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.2k | vs. MIA

Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.2k | vs. ATL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

The Blue Jays are probably the most obvious stack of the slate, but it is easy to see why. They lead the MLB over the last two weeks with a .309 AVG and .402 wOBA while their 164 wRC+ trails only the Yankees (169 wRC+) in that span. Rookie Kyle Bradish will be making only his third MLB road start today. His reverse splits have been very poor this season (vs. RHBs: 9.61 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 4.12 HR/9, .483 wOBA, .358 ISO) and he’s up against a very righty-heavy Blue Jays lineup.

BAL Bullpen Rating: 3/10 (Poor)

Favorite TOR Bats: George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk | Sneaky Bat: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Houston Astros vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

Simply put, Hearn is allowing too many runners onto the base paths and his 1.66 WHIP ranks last among all of today’s starters. This will be the third time this season that Houston has faced Hearn. In the two previous starts versus the Astros, he has come away with a 7.45 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .282 opp AVG, and .375 opp wOBA, with just a 14.3% kRate. The Astros bats are hot and they enter this game with a .364 wOBA and 143 wRC+ over the last week. This is a strong spot for them to stay hot.

TEX Bullpen Rating 4/10 (Below Average)

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker | Sneaky Bat: Jeremy Pena

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

This isn’t the sneakiest of stacks but, even in great match-ups, the D-Backs are rarely going to carry even moderately high stack ownership so they’ll qualify for this section today. Mike Minor, who is making his third start in 2022, has not gotten off to a good start this season. He has already given up five home runs and will be playing this same D-Backs team for the second time within a span of five days. In that scenario of a pitcher facing the same offense within such a short time period, the advantage almost always goes to the hitters. Arizona does not have a ton of RHBs to throw at the Reds southpaw, but they’ve been pretty strong against lefties over the last couple of weeks: .361 wOBA, .171 ISO, 135 wRC+, 13.8% kRate.

CIN Bullpen Rating: 2/10 (Very poor)

Favorite ARI Bats: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Josh Rojas | Sneaky Bat: Jordan Luplow

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

OF George Springer | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

1B Matt Olson | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

2B Ketel Marte | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Jake Burger | DK: $4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Rony Garcia (RHP), DET

1B Christian Walker | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

OF Jordan Luplow | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

OF Tyler O’Neil | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Lane Thomas | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

2B/3B Ezequiel Duran | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

1B Jesus Aguilar | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Christian Walker | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

Minor has already been taken deep five times in just 8.1 IP this season resulting in a stupid 5.40 HR/9 Rate and a 35.7% HR/FB Rate. Christian Walker was responsible for one of those home runs when the D-Backs faced off with Mike Minor just five days ago. Walker only has 45 at-bats against LHPs this season but he has been demolishing the southpaws to the tune of a .289 AVG, .419 wOBA, .311 ISO (!), with a 170 wRC+. Backing up Minor will be a Reds bullpen that has surrendered 1.77 HR/9 over the last two weeks. It’s a great spot for Walker to smash out his 16th HR of the season.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Yu Darvish OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded | +130 (DraftKings) | 2.5 Units

It’s a little odd to see this prop at plus money considering how deep Darvish has been pitching into games lately. He has easily hit the over on this prop in four consecutive games while averaging 21.25 outs/gm and 102.8 pitches/gm. The Cubs bats have been trending up and Wrigley Field can be a tough spot for pitchers (9th best hitter’s park this season) but Darvish has plenty of innings pitched in this ballpark and it looks like the 10 mph winds will be blowing right to left instead of toward the outfield.

Alejandro Kirk OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +130 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Kirk is enjoying a breakout season for the Blue Jays and he has been posting some excellent reverse splits vs. RHPs: .319 AVG, .392 wOBA, 156 wRC+. In his last 20 games vs. RHPs, he has hit a whopping .426 with a .534 wOBA and 249 wRC+! Orioles RHP Kyle Bradish has put up some extremely poor reverse splits of his own this season (vs. RHBs: 9.61 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 4.12 HR/9, .483 wOBA, .358 ISO). Kirk has hit for over 1.5 total bases in nine of his last 12 starts and I don’t see any reason why that trend should come to a halt today. I’m loving this prop at plus money.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!