Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney 6/12/19

• 3:30  What We Got Right / Wrong

• 11:50  Baltimore Bats

• 14:28  Zach Eflin vs. D’backs

• 17:29  Braves Stack

• 22:07  Seattle @ Minnesota

• 25:35  Brandon Woodruff in Tournaments

• 29:15  Joey Lucchesi in San Fran

• 33:50  HR Calls & Betting Lines

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Our Wednesday main slate brings us a nice mid-sized menu of baseball with eight games on the docket. I’m not sure about you guys but these are typically my preferred slates. With eight games going, you tend to have a decent spread of pitchers to choose from and plenty of viable bats. Coors Field is scheduled on the early slate so no need to feel pressure to jam in those bats. Fine by me. It seems we won’t have much in the way of weather to worry about so we can dive right in!

Today’s match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Mike Soroka (DK: $10.9k, FD: $10.6k) | RHP | ATL vs. PIT

If you’re pivoting away from Verlander when drafting a high-end pitcher, Mike Soroka has certainly performed at an elite enough level that would warrant the DFS salaries that he now carries. Soroka’s 1.38 ERA is clearly unsustainable when compared to his 3.80 SIERA but he is forcing an elite 58.4% Ground Ball Rate and limiting batters to just 32.6% Hard Contact. In 65.1 innings pitched this season, he has given up just one home run -- that’s a helluva rarity for any pitcher these days. The Pirates have been picking things up on the offensive end and no longer look like the bottom five scoring team they were for the first stretch of the season. Still, against right-handed pitchers, they are fairly average and over the last month their .163 team ISO ranks 24th. If Soroka continues to limit base runners, as his 0.87 WHIP indicates, then it would seem that the risk of him surrendering any major damage via home runs is pretty slim. The Braves are huge -210 favorites tonight while the Pirates carry a four run implied total.

Miles Mikolas (DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k) | RHP | STL @ MIA

Well, for now, it seems like the Marlins are back to their old ways of ineptitude. They’ve scored no more than one run in five of their last six games and their performance against RHPs continues to plummet. They’re dead last in the league with a .279 wOBA, .108 ISO, and 75 wRC+ while striking out a healthy 25% of the time. With a 17.6% kRate, Mikolas is more of a control pitcher. He’ll struggle with teams who simply manage to capitalize on his misplaced pitches but Miami doesn’t pose much of a threat, as most are pretty much aware of. Mikolas should see his pitch count hit near or above 100 pitches and he has a great shot at picking up a win as a -175 favorite. He’s probably too cheap on both sites.

David Hess (DK: $4.1k, FD: $6k) | RHP | BAL vs. TOR

This is clearly more of a DraftKings SP2 punt play because, well, look at that price! Hess will run you the exact price as Marlins catcher Jorge Alfaro. Pretty wild. Now, obviously, this disrespectful salary is pretty much warranted but Hess’ lone standout game this season also came against the Blue Jays when he went 6.1 innings on 82 pitches and allowed no hits, no runs, and issued just one walk with eight strikeouts. He must have something against Toronto because they are essentially the only team he has consistently pitched well against. In four career meetings, his DKFP totals versus the Blue Jays are 15, 26, 24, and 34 points. Odds are he throws a stinker, because hey… it is David Hess after all. But if you take him for your SP2, you’re essentially going to have your choice of whatever bats you want.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Minnesota Twins vs. Opener + Tommy Milone (LHP, Seattle Mariners)

Expected Ownership: Medium

Whoever you throw at these Twins, odds are that they’re gonna hang 5+ runs on the board. They lead the league against LHPs with a 134 wRC+ and have a team .373 wOBA and .212 ISO. Milone will reportedly follow an opener tonight and, though he hasn’t pitched terribly across his 20.1 innings this season, he’s allowing a .235+ ISO to both sides of the plate with a 43.9% Hard Contact Rate. If you’re a pitcher that struggles with giving up power, the Twins are likely the last team you want to face. Nelson Cruz (.456 wOBA, .424 ISO vs. LHP), CJ Cron (.488 wOBA, .404 ISO), and Miguel Sano (.364 wOBA, .318 ISO) are among the guys in this lineup who should be on your radar. Perhaps it’s sort of low-hanging fruit, but I’ll call for Nelson Cruz to send one out of the park today. 💣💥

Atlanta Braves vs. Mitch Keller (RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates)

Expected Ownership: Medium

These Braves bats are hot, averaging nine runs per game over their last three and they’ll look to keep the momentum going against a 23-year-old pitcher making his second professional start. Going mostly off of Keller’s minor league numbers, he is a pretty high strikeout pitcher who also doesn’t surrender many homers. However, he could be someone that an offense can string some runs against and he made that evident in his MLB debut on May 27th when he allowed six runs on seven hits across just four innings (but struck out seven). If the Braves can get to him early, they could see some extra pitches from a below average Pirates bullpen that has posted a 5.58 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, and 1.67 HR/9. Over the last month, the hottest hitters in this Braves lineup include Freddie Freeman (.438 wOBA, .383 ISO), Ronald Acuna Jr. (.358 wOBA, .205 ISO), and Austin Riley (.366 wOBA, .297 ISO).

Arizona Diamondbacks (LHBs) vs. Zach Eflin (RHP, Philadelphia Phillies)

Expected Ownership: Medium/Low

Eflin is allowing 54.2% Hard Contact over the last month with an average exit velocity of 94.1 mph (bottom 5% among pitchers) and, against LHBs this year, he is giving up a .242 ISO. The Diamondbacks don’t carry a hefty implied total today (4.2 runs) but we saw on Monday what sort of power this lineup can bring to the table when they hit a franchise record eight homers. It’s tough not to like some of these lefties and switch hitters who will slide in at the heart of the order: David Peralta (.404 wOBA, .281 ISO vs. RHP), Eduardo Escobar (.342 wOBA, .247 ISO), and Ketel Marte (.338 wOBA, .213 ISO). 

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Trey Mancini (DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k) | 1B/OF | vs. RHP Edwin Jackson

At this point, virtually any team would make for a viable stack when facing Edwin Jackson, but if you’re looking to just get some one-off exposure then why not roll out the O’s best hitter? Mancini has a healthy .367 wOBA and .231 ISO against RHPs this season and over the last two weeks he has cracked the ball with an average exit velocity of 93.1 mph (top 85%) on 47.4% Hard Contact. Edwin Jackson has had awful reverse splits this season, as he has given up a .431 AVG, .596 wOBA, and .549 ISO on 47.8% Hard Contact to righty bats. His HR/FB Rate currently sits at an absurdly poor 36.8%. He may only last four or five innings, at best, but Mancini should get at least a couple shots at him. The Toronto bullpen isn’t really one to fear either, so the entire game outlook is strong for Mancini regardless of how long Jackson survives on the mound.

Yordan Alvarez (DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k) | OF | vs. RHP Brandon Woodruff

Yordan certainly didn’t waste any time before making a splash in the big leagues, with homers in each of his first two games. If you haven’t already, you might as well take advantage of the mispricing on him now before the DFS sites adjust. The match-up with Woodruff isn’t great but the Brewers righty does give up some solid production to lefty bats, such as Alvarez. Against LHBs, Woodruff allows a .350 wOBA, .163 ISO, and 41.4% Hard Contact. Alvarez isn’t really a “home run or bust” type player considering he posted a .355 BABIP at the triple-A level this year along with a .443 OBP.

Ian Kinsler (DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.4k) | 2B | vs. RHP Shaun Anderson

There’s not a whole lot to like when it comes to finding extreme value among hitters, but second base is a prime ‘pay-down’ position and Kinsler has been really serviceable lately. He has just a .210 AVG on the year but across his last 10 games he has gone 11-for-32 for a .344 AVG, .418 wOBA, .281 ISO with a pair of home runs -- one of those dingers came just yesterday. Shaun Anderson is a low strikeout pitcher that has average/below average stuff. He also has been allowing considerably more offensive production to RHBs this season, which is just another plus for the righty Kinsler. 

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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